Covid-19 defies predictions to cause drop in population growth

The predicted Covid-19 baby boom has not happened, with new data showing a decline in population growth. SEE THE FIGURES

The predicted Covid-19 baby boom has not happened, with new data showing a decline in population growth since the once in a century pandemic.

And the trend in couples having less babies is likely to continue for decades, with Australia unlikely to meet the mid-century milestone of 40 million by 2061.

Social demographer Mark McCrindle said: “There was a lot of speculation that during lockdowns people would snuggle up in their nests and make babies but times of uncertainty and stress make people think twice about adding extra responsibility to the family.”

The Federal Government’s latest Intergenerational Report shows that the population was experiencing strong growth prior to the pandemic, rising at an average annual rate of 1.4 per cent.

The drop in babies born and international border closures shows the growth is expected to halt in 2020 to 2021 to just 0.1 per cent.

The total fertility rate is expected to continue to remain below the replacement rate at 1.62 per cent over the next 40 years.

But net overseas migration is predicted to recover.

Ryan and Amy Field at home with their five-week-old daughter Madeline in Noosaville. Picture: Lachie Millard

Meanwhile, the country will miss its milestone target of 40 million people by 2061 by 1.2 million.

“While the health impacts of Covid-19 have been limited, the demographic impacts will be felt for decades,” Mr McCrindle said.

“In 2061 the population will be smaller and older that was predicted before the pandemic hit.”

While fewer babies are coming into the world, older people are living longer.

In Queensland in June 2020 there were 1129 people over one century old. In June 2000 that number was 343.

The number of newborns in Queensland in 2020 was 59,914 while in 2010 the number was 64,121.

Amy Field from the Sunshine Coast is one Queenslander who added to the population during the pandemic. Her daughter Madeline is just a few weeks old.

“The pandemic has not impacted my pregnancy and birth of my baby, but it does seems strange that as a newborn she has experienced her first lockdown,” Ms Field said.

“My husband Ryan and I hope to have another baby, the pandemic hasn’t really made us feel full of doom and gloom about having a family.”