Beyoncé vs Adele: the best odds analysis and betting picks for the 65th Grammy Awards

The 2023 Grammys hit Monday morning: can Beyonce finally snag an Album of the Year nod, or does Adele pip her again, and who the odds like for the major categories?

Beyonce “Renaissance” album. Picture: Supplied

The 65th Grammy Awards, music’s night of nights – like the ARIAs but a bit bigger, more important and with substantially less Guy Sebastian – take place this Monday.

More than just the music world’s chance to slap itself on the back and award some well-deserved recognition to the world’s biggest pop stars, it also throws out some amazing betting markets.

We’ll get answers to questions like ‘Can and will Beyoncé win the major awards?’ and ‘How does Adele thank Beyoncé if she pips her AGAIN for Album of the Year?’ as well as ‘What happens if Harry Styles beats them both?’

But more importantly, we get our yearly reminder that ‘Record of the Year’ is about the recording of a song (the artists/musicians/producers/engineers behind it) while SONG of the Year is about the specific writing or composition of a song.

Just to avoid confusion.

Anyway! Who are the hot-tip favourites to sashay away with some lil’ golden statues (which sounds like a rapper who’s up for best new artist, but sadly isn’t) in CODE Bet’s betting guide to the 65th Grammy Awards?

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

• Beyoncé - “Renaissance”: $2.50
• Adele - “30”: $2.75
• Harry Styles - “Harry’s House”: $4
• Kendrick Lamar - “Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers”: $9
• Bad Bunny - “Un Verano Sin Ti”: $17
• Brandi Carlile - “In These Silent Days”: $23
• Lizzo - “Special”: $34
• ABBA - “Voyage”: $41
• Coldplay - “Music of the Spheres”: $51
• Mary J. Blige - “Good Morning Gorgeous”: $51

(odds via BlueBet and TopSport)

This year’s Album Of The Year feels like a two super-duper-star race between Beyoncé’s epic “Renaissance” and Adele’s “30”.

You can bet against Beyoncé at the Grammys if you want: but considering that “Renaissance” feels like a legit ALBUM album, a Spielberg-like ‘ode’ to an art form, look for the Recording Academy to reward her (and avoid the Beyhive’s wrath).

After all Beyoncé will break the all-time Grammy award and pass conductor Georg Solti… but she’s only ever been awarded A SINGLE ONE of those wins in a Big Four category, when she took out Song of the Year in 2010 for ’Single Ladies’.

Seriously: she’s been nominated for Album of the Year FIVE times. It’s hers to lose.

Grammy trophies sit in the press room during the 60th Annual Grammy Awards in New York. Picture: Don Emmert/AFP

Yes, Adele’s “30” is a worthy contender, but if Beyoncé is above $2, it’s hard to look past her for value: even Adele herself said back in 2017 that Beyoncé was the artist of her life and if there was a time to make up for not awarding “Lemonade”, this is it.

If there’s a wild, out-of-nowhere winner like Jon Batiste last year, it could be Bad Bunny, or in hilarious fashion, Harry Styles… both are good value if you legitimately think people don’t like Beyoncé.

Unfortunately there are no odds detailing if Harry Styles will spit on anyone if he loses. Or wins.

WHO WINS: Beyoncé - “Renaissance”

OUTSIDE CHANCE: Adele - “30”

SMOKIES: Harry Styles - “Harry’s House”; Bad Bunny - “Un Verano Sin Ti”

BEST NEW ARTIST

• Latto: $1.40
• Anitta: $7
• Muni Long: $9
• Omar Apollo: $11
• Wet Leg: $11
• Måneskin: $12
• Molly Tuttle: $19
• Samara Joy: $21
• Tobe Nwigwe: $29
• Domi and JD Beck: $34

(odds via BlueBet)

This year’s BNA field is wide open as, in the last half decade, the Grammys has tended to reward ‘New’ artists that were already superstars – Olivia Rodrigo, Megan Thee Stallion and Billie Eilish have taken out the past three – but there’s no one who quite hits that mark this year.

Latto is a wildly short-priced favourite after her gigantic breakout hit ‘Big Energy’ became ubiquitous thanks to its usage of that old Mariah Carey sample, but given the flat field is no given to win.

Don’t count out the excellent and fun pop of Omar Apollo whose ‘Evergreen (You Didn’t Deserve Me at All)’ went mega on TikTok and the Billboard charts, or even Wet Leg, who have gotten plenty of support in the alternative categories too.

It would also be hilarious if bonkers Italians Måneskin took it out.

Considering how wide open this one is, a longer shot is worth a look.

WHO WINS: Omar Apollo

OUTSIDE CHANCE: Wet Leg

SMOKIE: Måneskin

RECORD OF THE YEAR

• ‘Easy on Me’ - Adele: $2.15
• ‘As It Was’ - Harry Styles: $2.70
• ‘Break My Soul’ - Beyoncé: $7
• ‘Bad Habit’ - Steve Lacy: $10
• ‘About Damn Time’ - Lizzo: $11
• ‘You and Me on the Rock’ - Brandi Carlile feat. Lucius: $17
• ‘The Heart Part 5’ - Kendrick Lamar: $26
• ‘Woman’ - Doja Cat: $34
• ‘Don‘t Shut Me Down’ - ABBA: $41
• ‘Good Morning Gorgeous’ - Mary J. Blige: $51

(odds via TopSport)

Remember, ‘Record’ of the year goes to the song voters think contains the best sounding performance of the year… but is actually shorthand for ‘it was a big hit’ and‘ Adele is the favourite’.

The Recording Academy LOVES rewarding a song that feels like a big song, a momentous song. This might be the ‘it sounds good!’ award for musical artistry, but there’s also a strong traditionalist ‘everyone likes it’ bent, which suits, well, all of Adele’s oeuvre.

The thing is, this is a great field: Steve Lacy’s quirky bedroom croon, Lizzo’s OTT vibes, Kendrick’s amazing, mind-bending winding moment ahead of his latest album and Styles’ rambunctious ‘adult’ pop could all sneak in.

But again. Adele singing about divorce!? Save the time and effort and just send it to her and Greg Kurstin now.

WHO WINS: ‘Easy on Me’ - Adele

OUTSIDE CHANCE: ‘The Heart Part 5’ - Kendrick Lamar

SMOKIE: ‘Break My Soul’ - Beyoncé

SONG OF THE YEAR

• Adele - ‘Easy on Me’: $2.50
• Harry Styles - ‘As It Was’: $3.70
• Taylor Swift - ‘All Too Well (10 Minute Version)’: $3.90
• Beyoncé - ‘Break My Soul’: $10
• Lizzo - ‘About Damn Time’: $12
• Steve Lacy - ‘Bad Habit’: $12
• Kendrick Lamar - ‘The Heart Part 5’: $16
• Gayle - ‘ABCDEFU’: $26
• Bonnie Raitt - ‘Just Like That’: $41
• DJ Khaled feat. Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend & Fridayy - ‘God Did’: $41

(odds via TopSport)

Despite Adele perhaps being up for a Record/Song double, Song of the Year could be Kendrick Lamar’s chance to make a huge splash. In terms of writing, you’d be hard pressed to top a bloke who’s won a Pulitzer and four consecutive Album of the Year noms… but who hasn’t won a Grammy outside the rap category.

Obviously Adele is going to be considered, but Lizzo is a good look here too as is Tay-Tay, with Taylor Swift netting her only major award nod for a re-release of a song that’s older than some of her fans.

But the big challenger is likely Harry Styles’ ‘They should give this award to Phoenix’ smoky, slinky pop tune that has proven inescapable over the last few months.

WHO WINS: Harry Styles - ‘As It Was’

OUTSIDE CHANCE: Kendrick Lamar - ‘The Heart Part 5’

SMOKIE: Steve Lacy - ‘Bad Habit’

[all odds as of February 3]

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Originally published as Beyoncé vs Adele: the best odds analysis and betting picks for the 65th Grammy Awards