Oscars 2022: likely winners, unlucky losers, and those making up the numbers

Aussie Kodi Smit-McPhee is our only hope for a coveted Oscar. See who is tipped to win and who needs to work on their Hollywood A-game.

Leigh Paatsch

7 min read

March 26, 2022 - 4:33PM

News Corp Australia Network

Power of the Dog is up for a number of awards.

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The Oscars are back into the movie world’s spotlight once again, with the Academy Awards getting Hollywood’s final say on who did it best on screen over the past year. Here’s our in-depth look at the likely winners, the unlucky losers, and those merely making up the numbers.

Australia’s Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. Picture: Netflix.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield in tick, tick … BOOM!

Will Smith in King Richard

Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

Rehearse that fake smile: Strange that Garfield copped a nomination, as his wavering performance as a workaholic composer was the weakest link in the otherwise strong tick, tick. Heck, even his surprise return to active duty in Spider-Man: No Way Home was better work. Bardem has never been as nimble, alert and in the moment as he is in Being the Ricardos. However, his was really a support performance.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Two past winners in this line-up will be unlucky to lose here. Washington’s commanding interpretation of Macbeth was the most technically impressive acting by anyone last year. However, the movie showcasing his perfection was too enigmatic to fully capitalise on it. Cumberbatch was equally flawless – and just as intimidating – as a disturbed rancher. It’s close to the best effort of his career.

Benedict Cumberbatch and Jess Plemons in Power of the Dog. Picture: Netflix.

And the Winner Is … Will Smith. Finally, his time has come. It only took a minute for every element of Smith’s dynamic portrayal of Richard Williams to fall into place. The man with both a scheme and a dream for his daughters Venus and Serena was never going to be an easy character to play. Smith did so with ease, conveying a depth, a tenderness and a subtle wisdom that are calming joys to witness.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Ciarán Hinds in Belfast

Troy Kotsur in CODA

Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

Hey, it’s a night out, isn’t it?: Like Simmons, Hinds has been a reliable, relatable presence in many fine motion pictures. He was his usual A-grade self as the earthy grandpa in Belfast, but it was not the type of display that wins an statuette. A born character actor of the old school, Plemons will surely win one of these before his time is through. However, he was blown away by three stellar castmates in Power … when it really counted.

Troy Kotsur attends the 94th Annual Oscars Nominees Luncheon at Fairmont Century Plaza on March 07, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. Picture: Getty

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Australia’s own Kodi Smit-McPhee has plotted an impeccable career path so far, and his nuanced, deceptively powerful work in Power … is guaranteed to take him to the next level. Still has a big chance here, but having Plemons also in the field will lose valuable votes. Nevertheless, a fitting achievement for a big talent yet to truly peak.

And the Winner Is … Troy Kotsur. He might be the first deaf male actor to be nominated in Oscars history, but it is not the inability to hear that has plucked him from obscurity. Rather, it is Kotsur’s innate ability to take a scene, own it and point it in any direction he pleases. CODA would be nothing without him. (Oh, and should he win, his sign-language acceptance speech will be a dead-cert highlight of the night.)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter

Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart in Spencer

Tell the seatwarmer to go home early: Colman is a recent winner in this category (for 2019’s The Favourite), and it’s doubtful she’ll be scoring a second for her divisive role as a bitter and twisted tourist in The Lost Daughter. Cruz was sublime in Parallel Mothers, as is usually the case when she collaborates with Spanish filmmaking legend Pedro Almodovar. Always tough for foreign-language performances to score.

Jessica Chastain as "Tammy Faye Bakker" and Cherry Jones as "Rachel Grover”. Picture: Searchlight Pictures/20th Century Studios

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Stewart was a revelation as the late ‘people’s princess’ Diana Spencer. Most thought this was stunt casting. Boy were they wrong. What arguably counts her out is the same conundrum hurting Denzel Washington: she is great in a movie that can’t make the most of it. Kidman will have plenty of admirers for channelling the indestructible spirit and fearless talent of TV icon Lucille Ball.

And the Winner Is … Jessica Chastain. The most even contest of the night is likely to go the way of the popular and ever-consistent Chastain, if only because of the physically transformative demands she had to meet to play the controversial TV evangelist Tammy Faye Bakker. Chastain’s hundreds of hours spent in the makeup and hairstyling chairs (to portray Bakker across a 40-year time span) will pay off handsomely.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose in West Side Story

Judi Dench in Belfast

Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard

Take a selfie to remember the night by: Irish rising star Buckley will win a Best Actress gong at some point in the future. She is that good (track down a movie called Wild Rose if you want to know more). But no chance here. Same goes for Ellis, largely because her role as the mother of Venus and Serena Williams was severely underwritten. Dunst was mesmerising, but her work hasn’t found much love on the awards circuit.

Ariana DeBose. Picture: Getty

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Living legend Dench’s eighth nomination came as a big surprise to many, as it was widely assumed her Belfast co-star Catriona Balfe was assured a slot here. While Dame Judi has only the faintest chance of landing the prize – which, at 87, would make her the oldest winner of an acting Oscar – the supporting categories have a long history of patting veterans on the back for a career well done.

And the Winner Is … Ariana DeBose. Was anyone having more fun in a movie in the past year – simply exuding the sheer joy of singing, dancing and speaking before the camera for the first time – than the delightful DeBose? It was no coincidence that DeBose was present in every great scene, including that beautiful final-act duet with original West Side star Rita Moreno. Impossible to see her losing here.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Forget that speech you memorised: It must be a hot field when one of the greatest filmmakers of all time in Steven Spielberg is the rank outsider. West Side Story might be the most un-Spielberg movie he’ll ever make. Branagh’s passion project Belfast was impeccably handled, but very conventional in style and impact. If it’s very unconventional you’re after, the Japanese maverick Hamaguchi is definitely your man.

Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson United States, 2021 Alana Haim and Cooper Hoffman in a scene from “Licorice Pizza” Picture: Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Pictures

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Paul Thomas Anderson has only cranked out 9 features in his 25-year career as a filmmaker, but every single one of them is a masterful combo of style, substance and sophisticated storytelling. Licorice Pizza presents a first-class ticket for a time-travelling journey to California in 1973. Once you’ve arrived in this sunny, funky, laid-back world, you just don’t want to leave.

And the Winner Is … Jane Campion. The peerless New Zealand filmmaker stands as only one of seven women to ever land a Best Director nom, and the first to make the cut a second time. According to the bookies, Campion is unbeatable, largely because she has won the equivalent award everywhere else this season. However, let the record show her searingly intense direction was a clear notch above all others in 2021.

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

The honour’s all yours, the spoils are all theirs: Nightmare Alley (too glossy), Don’t Look Up (too abrasive), Dune (too big), King Richard (too small) and Drive My Car (too foreign) go straight in the dumpster. West Side Story’s pedigree as a modern remake counts it out, while Licorice Pizza’s widespread acclaim hasn’t resonated with awards’ voters elsewhere. Belfast has a faint chance, if only because fits a historical winning profile.

Drive My Car is up for Best Picture.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: The Power of the Dog has been the frontrunner to win the big one since wowing at the Venice Film Festival in September. This intimidating, slow-burning adaptation of the Thomas Savage novel is definitely the best movie nominated, but it is not the most appealing. Then there is the fabled ‘Netflix curse’ to consider. No original production from the streaming giant is yet to win Best Picture.

And the Winner Is … CODA. Yep, it’s a true two-horse race for Best Picture this year, and the outsider of the pair is gathering momentum to grab an unlikely victory. On first impressions, CODA might look like a no-frills feel-good movie, but there is something deeply moving and reassuring about the manner in which this lively affair connects with viewers of all types and tastes. Where Power of the Dog forces its audience to keep their distance, CODA’s wonderful story (of a largely deaf family’s reliance on the only member who can hear) is determined to gather up all who watch it in a warm embrace.

Outsider CODA will* win Best Picture. Picture: supplied

OSCARS 2022: THE BEST OF THE REST

BEST SCREENPLAY – ORIGINAL

And the Winner Is … Licorice Pizza. A beautiful, evocative and warmly funny piece of writing, with brilliant lines dropped so casually in virtually every scene.

BEST SCREENPLAY – ADAPTED

And the Winner Is … The Power of the Dog. The 1967 Thomas Savage book was always going to be a tough nut to crack, but Jane Campion knew exactly what she was looking for: a devastating finale.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

And the Winner Is … Dune. The sheer scale of what was broadly captured and then finely detailed by the cameras of Greig Fraser is going to a major visual influence in years to come.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

And the Winner Is … Encanto. Not a Pixar movie, as many have assumed, but an instant musical classic from the Disney Animation stable. Only the doco Flee has a chance of an upset.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

And the Winner Is … Summer of Soul. This rousing revisitation of a landmark music festival in 1969 Harlem dances across all the senses in ways most docos can only dream of.