New modelling: Queensland may not reopen until 2022 if it follows plan to wait until 90 per cent vaccinated

As Queensland forges ahead with a possible plan to wait until 90 per cent of over-12s are vaccinated before reopening, new modelling shows that target won’t be achieved in 2021, pushing more businesses to the wall, and taking a huge toll on mental health.

Debate continues to rage across the country about the national plan to reopen, with researchers warning state leaders border closures that extend into 2022 will push more Australian businesses to the wall, and take a huge toll on mental health and relationships.

New modelling shows states that are leaning towards 90 per cent vaccination thresholds as a condition of opening up may not reach those milestones until almost mid January.

Modelling by Dr Chris Billington from Melbourne University, based on current vaccine supply and seven-day averages of jabs, shows Queensland will not have fully vaccinated 90 per cent of people aged 16 and over until December 31.

But if Queensland insists on including everyone aged over 12 in its vaccination tallies – something that is increasingly being discussed – the state will not reach the 90 per cent milestone until January 11.

This week, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk refused to confirm interstate and international family reunions could take place at Christmas, even if the state was at 80 per cent vaccination.

Deputy Premier Steven Miles yesterday described the Delta variant of Covid-19 as the gift Queensland did not want from Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

Mr Miles could not say what mechanisms were available for the State Government to prevent Queenslanders travelling overseas when international borders opened.

“They’re matters for the Commonwealth Government and they will need to put in place those arrangements,” he said.

“I don’t think Queenslanders want all of our international borders open if it is not safe to do so – if there are still lots of cases overseas.”

However, there are fears Queensland could continue forcing returning travellers into hotel or regional quarantine facilities.

“We are putting in place our own arrangements to try to allow for more inbound international travel,” Mr Miles said.

“By Christmas we hope to have Wellcamp open and operating with 100 beds so that we can be bringing back more people.”

The prospect of a lengthy and expensive quarantine stint would be enough to turn Queenslanders off travelling when borders reopen, Flight Centre CEO Graham Turner said.

“No one is going to travel if they have to quarantine on the way back – it will kill the whole tourism industry,” he said.

Deputy Premier Steven Miles yesterday. Picture: Jerad Williams

“If you're fully vaccinated and have a negative test there’s no real reason to go into lengthy quarantine.”

Mr Turner said the opening of Australia’s two largest states to the world would “be the catalyst” for other states and territories.

“There’s no doubt it looks like in NSW you’ll be able to travel overseas late October or November, maybe with home quarantine,” he said.

“Victoria is a long way behind New South Wales but nowhere as far behind as Western Australia and Queensland.

“Mark McGowan and Annastacia Palaszczuk are standing on top of the diving tower and at some stage they’ve got to jump in.”

Queensland recorded no new cases of Covid-19 in the 24 hours to Friday morning, while NSW recorded 1043 and Victoria 733.

Queensland chief health officer Jeannette Young said she would ease mask rules, with anyone sitting down now able to remove their mask even if they are not eating – a move Mr Miles acknowledged was a “small change”.

Mr Miles said he hoped by Christmas, if vaccination rates had increased and cases were low, Queensland could open to New South Wales and Victoria.