CSIRO develops way to identify emerging variants of deadly diseases

Australian scientists have developed an early warning system that could have alerted health authorities to the Covid mutations behind Queensland’s third wave.

As the chief health officer issued a stark warning to Queenslanders that the worst ever wave of Covid-19 is about to hit with a sub variant that won’t be stopped by vaccination, Australian scientists have developed a way to send an early warning message to health officials when a new and dangerous mutation is about to hit.

As more than 100 laboratories across the globe scramble to develop a vaccine cocktail that will attack all emerging variants, CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, has found a faster and more comprehensive way to identify emerging variants by analysing the DNA of the whole variant, rather than the current method of monitoring changes to the spike protein.

There have been multiple mutations since the new coronavirus was first reported that have spread faster than the original Wuhan and Delta virus.

It is hoped the technology will allow hospitals to prepare better for an onslaught of Covid-19 cases.

More than 2000 frontline health staff are currently furloughed with Covid-19 or influenza in the state and 705 people are being treated in hospital for Covid-19 – a jump of 140 per cent in a month.

Dr John Gerrard announced on Wednesday that while vaccination will protect against severe disease and hospitalisation it may not stop people getting the virus and immunity from a previous Covid-19 diagnosis would not offer protection.

CSIRO scientists have found a faster and more comprehensive way to identify emerging variants.

There are more than 11 genes within the Covid-19 virus and these interact with the human immune system in different ways. By looking beyond just the spike protein, researchers can better predict how a new variant might behave inside the human body.

It is hoped that the research could help inform an early warning system that can determine which variants will be the deadliest to humans.

CSIRO scientist Dr Denis Bauer said up until now, the method of tracking new variants was to look for genetic changes in variants that are currently being monitored, such as Delta and Omicron.

“By harnessing the capability of a powerful machine-learning tool we developed, called VariantSpark, we were able to analyse the genomes of 10,000 Covid-19 samples, which is the largest number of samples ever analysed in this way,” Dr Bauer said.

“Our approach was able to identify variants that could be monitored a week before they were flagged by health organisations – and a week is a long time when you’re trying to outsmart a pandemic.

“We can also apply this approach to other viruses – in fact it has the potential to become the international standard of disease surveillance.”

The tool was programmed to provide hourly updates, providing the potential for information to be quickly shared with public health decision makers and to prepare hospitals for increases in demand.

It is hoped this new approach will eventually be used to develop vaccines to prevent future variants and pandemics.

Queensland pandemic expert Professor Paul Griffin told The Courier-Mail that any early warning system that would help hospitals prepare for waves of the virus would be welcomed.

“This sounds like a promising development that is well worth watching,” he said.