Covid Qld: Predicted 1660 hospitalisation peak ‘very unlikely’ to be reached, infectious diseases expert says

The Premier still believes Queensland’s third Covid wave is yet to peak while experts are saying it’s “very unlikely” hospitalisations will reach the numbers predicted by government modelling.

The Premier still believes Queensland’s third Covid wave has yet to peak despite a steady decline in hospitalisations since last week.

It comes as a top doctor believes the state won’t reach the government’s predicted peak of 1660 Covid-19 hospitalisations in August.

Queensland recorded a record high number of hospitalisations with 1123 patients as of July 23.

Since then, there’s been a steady decline, with Monday’s total dropping to 782 in hospital and 24 in intensive care.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk believes Queensland’s third Covid wave has yet to peak. Picture: John Gass

But Annastacia Palaszczuk said authorities wouldn’t be “resting on those numbers” with the peak of the current wave still expected for later this month.

“These are early numbers and we’re still expecting the peak at the end of this month. I wouldn’t get too excited over these decreases just yet,’ she said.

Health Minister Yvette D’Ath said she was “pleased” to see a reduction in hospitalisations, adding she was hopeful it was a sign of an early peak.

“We’ll just see how it goes over the next few days, but it is promising,” she said.

“This morning I had a briefing that for the first time in a while, we’ve got a reprieve.”

Ms D’Ath also announced the Commonwealth’s free rapid antigen test program for concession card holders will be extended “at least for the next three months”.

Regarding calls for a mask mandate, Ms D’Ath said the government had followed the advice of the chief health officers through the pandemic.

“Everyone knows the benefits of masks, and they are available to everybody so there’s no reason why people shouldn’t be using masks when they can, without the need to mandate,” she said.

Last week the Palaszczuk Government released new modelling figures that predicted Queensland would reach 1660 hospitalisations in late August.

However, infectious diseases expert Dr Paul Griffin said it was “very unlikely” the state would reach the projected peak.

“I don’t personally agree with that modelling necessarily. Our current trajectory suggests that it would be very unlikely to come to that figure,” he said.

“Perhaps it was based on a worst-case scenario.”

Dr Griffin said the decline was “welcome news” however it wasn’t likely to ease pressures on hospitals just yet.

“The pressure on our healthcare system will likely stick around after the wave. There’s still a few difficult weeks ahead of us,” he said.

Queensland Hospitals have been facing pressure from the latest cover variant, flu and medical emergencies. Picture David Clark

The sudden decline in hospitalisations can be linked to a range of factors, according to Dr Griffin, including the natural history of how the virus comes in waves, an increased number of infections protecting people and vaccination rates.

“Hopefully, it’s also based on people doing the right thing and staying home and wearing masks. If this wave passes, people need to know that successive waves and how frequently they occur will be dependent on Queenslanders,” he said.

And as Brisbane prepares for the Ekka, Dr Griffin said case numbers could rise again.

“It will likely result in an increase in cases and the magnitude of that depends on what we do,” he said.

“If people do the right thing, it might be very subtle. But if not, it has the potential to spread broadly across the state. It should still go ahead but it needs to have those things in mind.”

Meanwhile, former AMA president, Dr Kerryn Phelps said the state needed to start looking at the “big picture” in the pandemic, with hospitalisations being just one of the outcomes of the “enormous burden of illness” in the community.

“What we’ve also seen is that we’re one of multiple waves of Covid over a period of two and a half years, and this wave will not be the last,” she said.

“You can see looking at numbers when the safeguards were removed, the numbers skyrocketed.

“You can be infected repeatedly and then we don’t know when the next variant is coming through, but we have to continue to apply the precautionary principle.”

It comes as the state recorded 4303 new Covid-19 cases bringing the total number of active cases to 51,797.