Part-time purgatory: University graduates unable to find fulltime work

SHANNON had it all figured out as soon as she finished high school. She executed her plan flawlessly. But despite that, she’s stuck.

University degrees are taking a lot longer to prove their value for new graduates.

WHEN Shannon Wilkinson decided to apply to university after she finished high school, she saw her future mapped out in front of her.

The Queensland woman, now 24, successfully enrolled in a Bachelor of Business majoring in tourism, leisure and event management at the University of the Sunshine Coast and relocated for her studies.

She envisaged a career in event management, and half way through her course decided to focus on the lucrative wedding planning side of the industry.

Since the day she first considered the course, her plan was to begin working full time in event management straight after she finished, and one day open up her own business.

But with her studies completed last year, her graduation more than six months behind her, and only an internship and some casual work at a local wedding venue under her belt as industry experience, that goal is looking further and further out of reach.

Ms Wilkinson is one of an alarmingly increasing number of young university graduates stuck in job purgatory.

Freshly qualified but often inexperienced, tertiary graduates, particularly those between the ages of 20 to 25, are becoming increasingly likely to be stuck in causal or part time work in the months and even years after finishing their studies, rather than starting their careers on schedule.

Ms Wilkinson’s experience is in line more than half of all university graduates, and close to two third of graduates within her age group.

A study released by the National Institute of Labour Studies earlier this month delivered depressing results for new grads, finding the proportion of graduates in relevant fulltime work had plummeted.

In 2008, 56.4 per cent of university graduates had secured full time work in the four months since completing their studies. In 2014, that number had dropped to 41.7 per cent.

But the most alarming drop was for new graduates aged 20 to 25.

Shannon Wilkinson is having great difficulty finding fulltime employment in her chosen field.

In 2014, only 39.4 per cent of 20- to 25-year-old graduates had secured relevant fulltime work, leaving almost two thirds (60.6 per cent) languishing in casual or part-time work.

While it may seem logical that the age group that produced the highest number of graduates would feel the greater effect, that theory doesn’t check out.

It’s worth noting that in 2008, 20 to 25-year-olds had a higher rate of graduates in fulltime work than graduates overall — 58.6 per cent — meaning the deterioration in graduate outcomes for the under 25 years cohort is greater than for all graduates.

Flinders University professor Tom Karmel, who authored the study, examined decades worth of data in order to determine whether the sharp drop in graduate employment was part of a cyclical decline to do with the general labour market and the effects of the 2008 financial crisis.

Though the decline in fulltime employment got worse each year after 2008, he found it couldn’t be blamed just on labour market pressures. Instead, he found a big group of people in an unexplained limbo.

“The labour market faced by new graduates is different from the overall labour market (and currently more difficult),” Dr Karmel writes in his paper.

“We can only hazard a guess as to why this is the case. First, perhaps employers’ recruitment of new graduates has declined (and there is certainly anecdotal and empirical evidence to this effect). Second, perhaps we have flooded the market with new graduates.”

Numbers of new university graduates have increased rapidly during the examined time period, particularly following the uncapping of university places in 2012.

And with number of graduates remaining unemployed increasing, competition also increases year on year.

As Dr Karmel explains: “a number of very poor years in terms of employment outcomes for new graduates will mean that this year’s crop of graduates will be competing with many graduates from the previous year and perhaps earlier.”

According to the raw data, recent graduates have it tougher than any others in the past, with the fulltime employment rate down five percentage points on the 1993 figure, when employment was at an all-time low in Australia.

Graduates are putting themselves out there, but employers aren’t interested. Picture: Butch Dill/AP Photo

Dr Karmel’s paper kicks off with bad news and doesn’t get any better.

“There is nothing in our analysis to suggest that things will get better,” its conclusion gloomily states.

But what the research doesn’t offer insight into is why this is the case.

Graduate Careers Australia research manager Bruce Guthrie says a culmination of circumstances has led to detrimental outcomes for graduates, but he doesn’t think it’s as dire as the paper’s concluding statement makes out.

“It’s just one of those periods of time when a number of events come together which can have a detrimental effect on things for people. Bad outcomes over a short period,” he tells news.com.au.

“The GFC was a big hit on graduate employment, jobs dried up very sharply and it hasn’t come back.”

Citing a flat economy locally, the wind down of the mining boom, drying up of manufacturing jobs, China’s rollercoaster economy and issues across the world like Brexit, Mr Guthrie says the degree of global economic uncertainty continues to cause issues locally.

“This all leads to, locally, the organisations that would normally recruit graduates in (large) numbers cutting down their intake,” he says.

“But it’s come at a time when the graduates are also increasing, so Australian universities are producing more graduates at a time when demand is down.”

Though the tough job market shows no sign of easing off for new graduates, Mr Guthrie says GCA’s research shows that graduates are finding employment, it’s just taking longer.

Graduate Careers Australia research manager Bruce Guthrie.

“These people find jobs, it just takes them longer to find them and they’re not necessarily finding the jobs they wanted in the first place,” he says.

“We’ve done surveys three years out, and we find the unemployment rate dropped very sharply for three years after graduation. Which doesn’t mean it takes them three years to find a job, it just means they find their job within that time.”

One possible long term effect in delaying graduate employment, Mr Guthrie says, is that taking longer to find employment after university could possibly set back graduates’ career progression, and their pay packets.

“At the moment there are probably a lot of young people going into an amount of debt for a degree for which the returns might take some years before they recognise the value of,” he said.

Ms Wilkinson is beginning to feel concerned about her long term career prospects.

She’s had only a handful of interviews since finishing university, and they were all unsuccessful.

“My experience trying to gain employment within my chosen field has been a very hard and stressful time,” she tells news.com.au.

“I found that a lot of employers weren’t interested because I didn’t have the experience but had all the qualifications needed. I’m still looking for full time employment within the events industry/wedding industry but I am currently also searching within the tourism industry and other fields.”

The graduate says she has friends who are working in their chosen fields but have settled for part-time work, and she’s had a friend volunteer within their industry until they were able to gain employment.

She’s hoping it doesn’t come to that.

Originally published as Part-time purgatory: University graduates unable to find fulltime work