Saul Kavonic is the energy analyst with a licence to speak his mind

Whether it’s the future of fossil fuels or the political tensions behind energy policy, Saul Kavonic has emerged as a straight-talking voice in the Australian energy sector.

In an industry awash with spin, PR-filtered forecasts and corporate speak, Saul Kavonic has carved out a rare niche: telling it like it is.

Whether it’s the future of fossil fuels, the transition to renewables, or the political tensions behind energy policy, Mr Kavonic has emerged as one of Australia’s most sought-after — and straight-talking — voices in the energy sector.

A prominent energy market analyst, Mr Kavonic is regularly tapped by media outlets, investors, policymakers and industry insiders for his views on everything from LNG exports to net zero ambitions.

His reputation is built on a willingness to cut through rhetoric — often with blunt, unvarnished assessments.

That instinct to call a spade a spade, he says, was encouraged early. Born to parents who emigrated from Africa, Mr Kavonic grew up in a household where speaking plainly was a virtue.

But it’s his deep belief in the foundational role of energy in Australia’s success that drives him.

“I am a big believer that Australia can continue to be a winner on the global economic field, but that requires robust debate about how to be a country of go instead of no,” he says.

“This requires standing up in the face of pressures from a noisy but fringe part of society who take our prosperity for granted and are now against doing the things that have long made Australia the best place to live in the world.”

It’s a message that has made Mr Kavonic both popular and, at times, controversial. He’s unafraid to point out the gaps in net zero transition plans or the political contradictions of climate policy. He’s equally frank in criticising the oil and gas industry’s hesitance to robustly defend itself, or governments’ overreliance on optimistic projections.

He refuses to be silenced.

“There are unfortunately numerous cases of companies trying to pressure me to toe the company line and silence me from presenting legitimate analysis that pokes holes in company talking points over the years,” he says. “I have been threatened with blacklisting, companies have tried to put commercial pressure on myself and the companies I worked for to force me to toe a company line, and a cowardly company board has sent in lawyers to threaten me with legal action to try to silence legitimate analysis.”

Mr Kavonic’s insights are grounded in a career that has spanned investment banking, consulting and upstream energy research. After studying engineering, he began his career with the United Nations in Africa — a formative experience that left a lasting impression but also a sense of frustration.

Oil and gas analyst Saul Kavonic now works for MST Financial.

“If you want to have a real impact, it makes you reassess that path,” he says. “A lot of smart people end up trapped in bureaucracy, writing reports no one reads.”

He returned to Australia to work for Woodside, then back to Africa — this time Mozambique — before the 2014 oil price crash forced a rethink. A role at Wood Mackenzie followed, leading eventually to a senior position at Credit Suisse. When Credit Suisse was acquired by UBS, Mr Kavonic made the move to MST Financial — a role that came with a clear attraction: the licence to speak his mind.

That independence is on full display in his commentary. While others gravitate toward black-and-white narratives, Mr Kavonic is more comfortable with nuance. He’s as likely to explain how grid technologies are starting to challenge coal’s dominance as he is to highlight the structural dependencies on fossil fuel exports. This capacity to acknowledge trade-offs resonates at a time when the energy sector is undergoing historic transformation. Kavonic warns that rushing the energy transition without building supporting infrastructure risks price volatility and reliability issues. But he’s equally firm that clinging to fossil fuels as a long-term strategy is a dead end that will erode Australia’s competitiveness.

His plain-speaking manner has made him a fixture on television, radio and in print. He avoids corporate jargon and has little time for overly polished soundbites. That accessibility — paired with deep technical knowledge — has helped him cut through a noisy national debate.

“Too much of the energy debate is dominated by activist groups these days, who have crowded out other voices and our pragmatic environmental groups. If I do my job right it usually means all stakeholders involved are left upset with me. What makes a good analyst is to be curious, be fearless, be iconoclastic,” he says.

Blunt, balanced and unapologetically pragmatic, Saul Kavonic has become a trusted voice at the centre of one of the most consequential debates of our time.

Originally published as Saul Kavonic is the energy analyst with a licence to speak his mind