ASX Trader: You’ve missed the gold rush - this is how to catch next big run early

Gold fever has reached fever pitch but you’re late to the party if you’re thinking of investing. The entry was two years ago. Here’s how to avoid missing the next big run, writes ASX Trader.

Fourteen months ago, I ran a Precious Metals Masterclass at ABC Bullion.

Gold was sitting just over $2000 an ounce, and the room was almost silent.

No buzz, no hype, just a few serious investors doing the work while everyone else ignored it.

Fast forward to today, and there’s a queue snaking out the door.

Gold has surged far beyond those levels, headlines are glowing, and suddenly everyone wants in.

But nothing fundamental changed overnight.

The only thing that changed was crowd psychology.

The masterclass at ABC Bullion two years ago.

The line up for the event.

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The psychology of late-stage buying

Markets are driven as much by emotion as by economics.

And right now, gold is a textbook example of how the crowd behaves at turning points.

People tend to:

• Ignore assets when they’re undervalued or out of the spotlight.

• Flock in late once prices have already run, driven by fear of missing out.

• Convince themselves that rising prices equal safety when, historically, this is often the most dangerous moment to buy.

That’s where we are today.

The investors who quietly bought during last year’s lull are sitting on significant gains.

Those discovering gold now are arriving late to the party.

The entry was two years ago below $2000.

ASX Trader’s call on gold back in 2023.

Approaching the crest

Markets move in waves not straight lines.

Right now, gold looks to be approaching the top of a short-term wave rather than the end of its long-term bull market.

If you have a long-term outlook, gold is still at the beginning of it cycle.

Over the next few months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a major pullback or period of consolidation that catches new buyers off guard.

The broader structural backdrop for gold remains positive:

• Central banks are still accumulating reserves.

• Global debt continues to balloon faster than economic growth.

• And geopolitical risks show no sign of easing.

Those are the foundations of the next multi-year bullish cycle.

But in the short term, the easy money has already been made.

Latecomers chasing headlines will likely learn a familiar lesson, that markets reward patience and punish excitement.

Value before validation

When we ran that masterclass, we weren’t teaching hype.

We were teaching value before validation, a principle that separates professionals from the crowd.

Professionals position quietly when prices are dull.

They take profits when the room fills with enthusiasm.

The line outside ABC Bullion today isn’t really about gold, it’s a reflection of human behaviour.

Retail interest always lags institutional accumulation, and by the time the public feels safe, professionals are already reducing exposure.

The scenario for gold at $2000 vs $4000

If you keep missing the moves…

If you keep missing all the trades while everyone else seems to be making money, it’s probably because you’re watching them and not the market.

You’re looking back instead of looking forward.

The trick isn’t chasing what’s already moved significantly.

It’s seeing what professionals are about to look at next.

That means identifying what’s historically undervalued and understanding where we are in the market cycle.

As the GOAT saying goes: “Skate to where the puck is going not where it’s been.”

It might take one, two, or six months before the next opportunity sets up.

But the work you do now, the research, the preparation, the patience, will determine whether you’re ready when it does.

No one will cheer for you while you’re early.

You’ll have to watch other things go up while your setup quietly builds strength.

And that’s exactly why most people don’t do it.

The next quiet opportunity

Right now, oil is asleep. It’s not read yet

But when it wakes, it’s likely to move sharply.

History shows that the biggest opportunities don’t announce themselves.

They emerge quietly while the crowd is still chasing yesterday’s winners.

Gold still has a bright future, but the easy money has already left the building.

If you want to be ready for the next move, stop watching the crowd and start watching the market.

Will oil fly to the moon.