ASX Trader: ‘Why I’m betting on a commodity supercycle’

As global markets dance on a cliff edge, something is brewing in silence. It’s where smart money is silently rotating and it’s set to be big, writes ASX Trader.

In a world dazzled by AI hype and tech-stock euphoria, I’m watching a completely different story unfold.

While most investors are still glued to the noise, smart money is quietly rotating out of the overvalued and into what I believe is the most asymmetric setup we’ve seen in years -commodities.

If you’ve followed my calls this year, this won’t come as a surprise.

• I was ready for the equity rollover before Trump’s tariffs hit.

• I caught the gold miners rally before gold took off in 2024-2025.

• I flagged platinum just before its breakout.

• I was talking about oil and uranium weeks before they surged.

These weren’t random guesses, they were structured trades based on data, sentiment, and chart analysis.

The one thing they all had in common? The crowd wasn’t looking yet.

1. The Big Picture: History shows what comes next

Here’s a simple but powerful pattern from the last 100 years:

• In years like 1922, 1932, 1949, 1974, and 1982, stocks were dirt cheap - trading well below average valuations.

What followed? Returns of nearly 20 per cent per year over the next decade.

• In years like 1929, 1965, 2000 and right now stocks were expensive. And what followed? Disappointing or even negative returns for the next 10 years.

ASX Trader charts. Photo: Supplied

We are not in a cheap market today.

If anything, we’re dancing on a cliff edge.

Tech stocks relative to M2 money supply have returned to the same extreme levels we saw at the peak of the Dot-Com Bubble. That should set off alarms.

The Nasdaq 100 index.

Markets aren’t built to help you win

Here’s something most investors don’t hear enough: markets are designed for the little guy to lose.

Think of it like a casino. If it feels like you’re winning, it’s usually because they want you to feel that way so they can take the other side of your trade.

The market plays chess while most people play checkers.

They don’t mind sacrificing a bishop to make you feel confident, if it means taking your queen five moves later.

That’s how the pros think: positioning, patience, and precision.

That’s what I live by as a trader and investor.

Why Commodities look like the smart bet

Zoom out on the data, and commodities are trading at multi-decade lows compared to equities. Every major commodity bull market - post-war, 1970s inflation, early 2000s China boom -started from this same kind of setup.

At the same time, the bond market is sounding the alarm.

Yield curves are deeply inverted which is one of the most reliable recession signals in macro. Yet the crowd is still chasing tech and believing in the fairytale.

Smart money?

It’s moving in silence - into gold, silver, copper, uranium, oil, and defensive plays. The areas no one’s talking about. Yet.

The chart shows how gold is on the way up.

What I’m seeing in the charts

I let the charts lead the way and right now, they’re speaking loud and clear.

• Gold, silver and platinum are breaking out.

• Uranium, oil and coal are showing clean accumulation patterns.

• Small-cap miners look like altcoins before a crypto bull market.

This is structured accumulation.

Quiet positioning. No hype. No headlines. That’s when the best trades happen.

What you can do

Here’s the bottom line for everyday investors:

• Don’t be fooled by market noise. It’s often there to distract you while the real moves happen in silence.

• Focus on value, not popularity. The “boring” trades often become the most profitable.

• Play chess, not checkers. The market will punish short-term thinking.

ASX Trader is betting on a commodity supercycle. Photo: iStock

Something big is brewing

Most investors today have never experienced a true commodity bull market.

They got a taste in 2020 but it faded.

What’s coming is likely the real deal.

We could see small-cap resource names rip like early altcoins during alt season except this time, the story is built on real-world scarcity, global demand, and geopolitical urgency.

This setup doesn’t come around often.

But when it does, you don’t need to be flashy, you just need to be early.

Watch the silence.

That’s where the next big move is already happening.