Origin Energy’s fate all but sealed as the deadline for proxy votes closes.

The future of Origin Energy has largely been decided after a deadline for proxy votes on Brookfield and EIG Partners’ almost $20bn bid for the group passed.

The future of Origin Energy has largely been decided after the deadline for proxy votes closed.

Brookfield and EIG must win support of 75 per cent of shareholders in Origin, the country’s largest electricity and gas retailer, to progress with its almost $20bn bid, which Australian authorities hope will spur the country’s transition away from fossil fuels.

A vote of Origin’s shareholders will be held on Thursday in Sydney, but nearly all votes will largely have been cast ahead of time. The deadline for shareholders to lodge proxy votes passed on Tuesday afternoon.

While shareholders could yet attend the meeting and change their votes, attendance numbers are unlikely to alter the result, and senior Origin management is now likely to have a gauge on the prospects for the deal – although the company will not make any public comment until the formal vote.

Industry sources said the chances of Brookfield and EIG succeeding were slim, as AustralianSuper – Origin’s largest shareholder with a 17.5 per cent stake – has vowed to oppose the transaction.

To succeed, Brookfield and EIG are expected to require significant retail voter support. Retail investors make up about 30 per cent of Origin’s shareholders, but despite an aggressive campaign few expect the required turnout needed to push Brookfield and EIG to victory.

In a further blow, Origin on Tuesday said deprecation of the Australian dollar meant the Brookfield and EIG offer now equated to a bid of $9.43 a share – lower than the revised bid of $9.53 a share.

An offer of $9.43 a share is no longer above the independent expert’s valuation of Origin. Local advisory firm Grant Samuel had said Origin shares were valued between $8.45 and $9.48 a share; and Brookfield and EIG had moved to capitalise on its offer being within the value range.

A dollar depreciation is unlikely to be consequential to institutional investors, which will have US dollar exposure and hedging options, but a lower offer could be critical for some retail investors as they vote.

The exact price paid for each Origin share will continue to fluctuate until the deal potentially closes on January 31, 2024.

Origin shares have tumbled in recent days as investors shed their positions on expectations that AustralianSuper will scupper the bid.

But retail investors could also be spurred to vote in favour of the transaction as Origin’s share price falls. Shares in Origin fell nearly 3 per cent on Tuesday to $8.30 – well below what Brookfield and EIG are offering.

If the deal fails to secure enough votes, attention will quickly turn to whether Brookfield and EIG return.

The consortium has the option of returning with an off-market bid, which would require just 51 per cent support. EIG has insisted it would be the lead, purchasing Origin to then sell the energy business to Brookfield – leaving EIG as an owner of just the LNG business.

Sources close to AustralianSuper, however, insist the superannuation company believes EIG would struggle to overcome financing and tax barriers to pursue such an option.

Originally published as Origin Energy’s fate all but sealed as the deadline for proxy votes closes.