‘Oblivion’: Graph shows truth we all missed

Australia was left stunned after the Federal Election in May – now a graph has surfaced that explains exactly what we all missed.

When the Abbott government was elected in a landslide at the 2013 election winning 90 out of 150 lower house seats, it represented a level of numerical ascendancy in the lower house of parliament seen only once in the last 40 years of politics prior to the recent federal election.

The previous instance occurred in 1996 at the election of the Howard government, when the Coalition won 94 out of 148 lower house seats.

Since then, to say that things have gone wrong for the Coalition would be an understatement.

Their total ranks in the lower house have been more than halved, with the Coalition winning just 43 seats at May’s federal election.

Exactly why the Coalition failed so spectacularly when their strong belief within the party was that they would be returning to power less than a week before election day, remains a matter of great debate.

But there is one factor that is definitively not the Coalition’s ally, demographics, with one avenue in particular going against them.

When it comes to the various demographic breakdowns whether they be by income, social class or education, the scales get tilted toward the Coalition or toward Labor.

For example, at the 2022 election, the primary vote of Australians with a tertiary education favoured Labor over the Coalition by 9 percentage points, 35 per cent to 26 per cent.

If we shift the focus to members of the electorate earning $140,000 per year or more, Labor is favoured by 5 percentage points, 35 per cent to 30 per cent.

But the greatest divide is not defined by education, income or social class, it’s by home ownership.

This echoes the findings of studies done on elections in Britain and elsewhere, which concluded that if a voter owns a home, they are significantly more likely to vote for a conservative party than a renter.

To paraphrase the commentary of Sydney barrister and writer Gray Connolly: Why would young people vote conservative if they have nothing to conserve?

According to the findings of the 2022 Australian National University Election Study, 26 per cent of renters gave their first preference vote to the Coalition, with 37 per cent giving their vote to Labor.

On the other in the ranks of homeowners, 38 per cent gave their first preference to the Coalition, with 32 per cent going to Labor.

Primary vote split by homeowners and renters. Picture: Supplied

On balance a homeowner was 46.2 per cent more likely than a renter to give their first preference vote to the Coalition.

Home Ownership

According to census figures analysed by AMP, the overall home ownership rate peaked almost 60 years back in 1966.

It has since declined significantly, but the fall in overall ownership masks vast differences between different age demographics over time.

In terms of a breakdown by age demographic, figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) reveal what proportion of households were homeowners, starting with Australians born 1947 to 1951 at the 1976 census.

The AIHW has since measured each subsequent five-year block in births for home ownership at each Census, with the latest measured at the 2021 census those born between 1992 and 1996.

Home ownership by age. Picture: Supplied

The figures reveal that despite pandemic-related distortions at the latest data point making things appear more favourable, the households of Australians aged 25 to 29 had the lowest home ownership rate for any five-year age demographic block on record.

But it’s not just young people who are doing worse than their predecessors. Almost every generation that has come after the eldest Baby Boomer cohort, who were born 1947 to 1951, has had a worse rate of home ownership than the generation that came before it.

The number of 30-34-year-olds who own their own homes has been in steep decline. Picture: Supplied

For example, for Australians born in 1967 to 1971 who were aged 50 to 54 at the last census, the home ownership rate was 72.4 per cent, compared with 79.6 per cent when those born 1947 to 1951 were that same age.

For people aged 35 to 39 at the 2016 census, the home ownership rate was 59.2 per cent, compared with 69.1 per cent for those born 1952 to 1956 and 72.3 per cent for those born 1947 to 1951.

This downward trend in home ownership rates repeats itself again and again across the last five decades and all the various age demographics.

The Current State Of Play

According to recent Redbridge polling, the Coalition is behind Labor in the 18 to 34, 35 to 49 and 50 to 64 age demographics, falling to third in the 35 to 49 age demographic, behind Labor and others, a collection of third-party candidates outside of the Greens.

Meanwhile, the Coalition leads in primary vote in just one age demographic, voters aged 65 and over.

And how people intended to vote by age. Picture: Supplied

Looking Ahead

From a self-interested perspective based purely on electoral demographics, deteriorating rates of home ownership are not a problem for Labor or the Greens, with renters significantly more likely to vote for them than they are for the Coalition.

But for the Coalition, they are a political time bomb. The average age of a rank-and-file member of the Liberal Party is 68 and their ranks continue to dwindle, as existing members pass on and there is increasingly little interest from younger demographics to replace them.

A further deterioration in home ownership and household formation rates would be an electoral demographic disaster for the Coalition and there is little evidence of the current downward trend being arrested.

In a vacuum it would seem the Coalition has three choices, align itself more strongly with renters as it did relatively successfully in the decades following World War 2, commit to policies that will credibly dramatically raise rates of home ownership or continue on its march toward electoral demographic oblivion.

Originally published as ‘Oblivion’: Graph shows truth we all missed