Australia toppled as the global LNG king

The US has overtaken Australia as the world’s top shipper of LNG.

The US has overtaken Australia as the world’s top shipper of LNG. Picture: AFP/Getty Images

Australia has been toppled as the world’s top LNG exporter with the US taking the global crown for the first time amid strong growth from gas buyers in Europe.

US producers exported 91.2 million tonnes of LNG in 2023, marking an all-time high for the country, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The move put Australia back into the second largest LNG exporter position with Qatar only slightly behind in third.

Both Australia and Qatar have been jostling for pole position in recent years while the US has also started to export more LNG at times, with access to low-cost supplies that can be shipped to buyers in both Europe and Asia.

US LNG production is forecast to grow to 93 million tonnes by 2025, according to Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources, and 134 million tonnes by 2028. Australia, in contrast, will remain steady at 82 million tonnes through much of the decade.

Qatar has ambitions to turbocharge its supplies with plans to add an extra 42 per cent of capacity taking its output to 110 million tonnes a year.

Qatar Petroleum will add four LNG trains, each with 8.25 million tonnes of capacity, equivalent to more than twice the capacity of Australia’s largest export facility, the North West Shelf LNG plant in Western Australia.

Australia’s LNG projects shipped 82 million tonnes of gas overseas in 2022-23, marking a new record, and worth $92bn to the nation’s coffers.

The trigger for the US reaching the new high mark was the return to service of Freeport LNG in Texas and a boost from Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass facility in Louisiana.

US exports will increase further in 2024 with the first LNG train from the Qatar Energy and ExxonMobil-led Golden Pass set to come online in the second half of the calendar year.

Australia has pointed to surging demand from Europe for the growth of US LNG in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which throttled supplies on the continent.

“US LNG exports remained strong through 2023, with substantial redirection to Europe occurring after LNG flows between Russia and Europe were stopped,” the Department of Industry, Science and Resources said in a December quarterly report.

“Over 80 per cent of US LNG was exported to Europe in 2022–23, and the trend is expected to largely hold as Europe continues to seek reliable alternatives to Russian pipeline gas.”

Australia looks set to lose its hold as the world’s second largest LNG exporter with Qatar embarking on a massive expansion from its cheap North Field reserves.

“Over the last decade, Qatari export volumes have been relatively stable at about 80 million tonnes per annum. Consistent with this trend, Qatari exports were stable at 20 million tonnes in the September quarter 2023, with the Qatar Government noting that the nation’s export capacity is currently fully utilised,” the quarterly report found.

“More capacity is expected to come online soon, with six LNG trains under construction at Ras Laffan. On completion, the trains are projected to raise Qatar’s LNG exports from 79 million tonnes in 2023 to 105 million tonnes by 2026. Demand for Qatar’s new volumes has been high, with Qatar’s energy minister predicting that all the new volumes will be contracted out by end 2023.”

Australia is forecast to export 80 million tonnes of LNG in 2023–24, with volumes forecast to edge down to 78 million tonnes in 2024–25, on lower North West Shelf output from the Woodside Energy-led LNG plant.

“Australian LNG export earnings are forecast to fall to $73bn in 2023–24, easing to $64bn in 2024–25. Key risks to the forecast include a regional escalation of the Hamas-Israel conflict, as well as seasonal demand fluctuations that could raise earnings from spot sales,” the government report forecasted.

Originally published as Australia toppled as the global LNG king