You need to calm down: Why Taylor’s endorsement hasn’t won Harris the election

In a post shared with her 283 million Instagram followers just an hour after the presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the billionaire country singer turned pop star Taylor Swift declared her support for the vice president.

“I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 presidential election. I’m voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them. I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos,” she wrote.

Taylor Swift has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race.Credit: Getty Images

It’s understandable that Democrats would be dancing – metaphorically and probably literally – since the post went live. Is being called “steady-handed” and “a warrior” by Swift akin to being blessed by the Pope himself? Absolutely. But a signed, sealed and delivered election victory? Not quite. At least, not yet.

Having grown up in Pennsylvania (a long-time swing state) and Tennessee (a conservative state), Swift is uniquely placed to reach a broad church of Americans in a way no other A-list celebrities can. While she may be a card-carrying Democrat and the mastermind behind the world’s highest-grossing pop tour of all time in 2024, her roots in the country music scene and time spent in the South means that when she speaks, voters in swing states, blue states, and red states listen alike.

When she posted a callout in 2023 encouraging people to enrol to vote as part of National Voter Registration Day, for example, a record-breaking 35,000 Americans registered in just 24 hours. According to Vote.org, which runs the annual registration drive, it marked an increase of 22.5 per cent from the previous year.

In the 2018 midterms, though, after successfully keeping her political views to herself for much of her career, Swift publicly endorsed Democratic candidates in Tennessee, saying that Republican candidate Marsha Blackburn’s voting record “appalls and terrifies me.”

The days leading up to her decision to share the post, and the heated debates it raised between her management and her parents, were featured as part of her 2020 documentary, Miss Americana, in which Swift called Blackburn “Trump in a wig” and revealed she regretted not condemning Trump in 2016 when he was running against Hillary Clinton.

Swift ignored the advice of her team and the concerns of her father, who admitted to buying armoured vehicles due to the potential safety risks that could come from her speaking out against Trump and Blackburn, in a bid to stand up for what she believed was right. Arguably, that’s the most that anybody can do. Yet, she ultimately failed to sway enough voters: Blackburn won by 11 points and became the first woman to represent Tennessee.

Polling data from Pew Research shows that those most likely to vote for the Democratic Party are women aged under 65 who live in urban or suburban areas.

A 2023 report from Morning Consult that studied Swift’s fan base ahead of the Eras Tour found that 52 per cent of Swifties were female, 45 per cent were Millennials and, perhaps most significantly, 55 per cent already identified as Democrats. In other words, Swift is preaching to the mostly converted.

That’s not to say her endorsement counts for nothing, or that it doesn’t hold weight with potential swing voters. Among those Harris needs to clinch a majority on election day are working-class, rural and white voting blocs – all groups that Swift holds significant sway with considering 49 per cent of her fans reported earning a household income of under $50,000 in 2023, 21 per cent lived rurally, and 74 per cent were white.

While Republicans would no doubt have loved to claim Swift’s endorsement for themselves, given Trump recently shared AI-generated images that falsely depicted the 34-year-old and her fans supporting his campaign (which Swift acknowledged in her post on Tuesday as a reason for her growing discontent with the right), it’s unlikely he’ll be derailed by the truth.

As for the Democrats, though, as tempting as it may be to see Swift’s post as a move that could seal the deal in November, they need to calm down.

Katy Hall is deputy opinion editor of The Age.

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