Why Trump’s madness is making the world a safer place

Upon assuming the US presidency for the second time, Donald Trump brought back a bust of Winston Churchill that had been removed from the Oval Office. It is now displayed prominently in the room where so much of global import happens.

Trump’s affinity with Churchill has been the subject of speculation and ridicule since then. The British wartime prime minister was, of course, the co-creator of the Western alliance, alongside US president Franklin Roosevelt. Last week, New Zealand’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom was fired for asking, apropos of the bust, whether Trump “really understands history”.

The Winston Churchill bust has been returned to the Oval Office by US President Donald Trump.Credit: AP

The question was understandable. According to the wisdom of the gazettes of the international status quo, Trump is “smashing” the Western alliance, putting the global rules-based order in peril.

It must then be a happy accident that, as a result of the mad president’s actions, Western governments and supranational bodies will end up strengthening the apparatus that stands as a bulwark against dictators.

Just last week, Trump chose to televise a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. That alone was such an unconventional move that it raised many eyebrows in a world in which robust diplomacy is mainly conducted behind closed doors.

In the course of the meeting, Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance berated Zelensky for expecting the US to continue providing support to Ukraine. The idea that the US would withdraw from funding this conflict unless Zelensky tried to negotiate with Russia for peace shocked the Ukrainian president, who tried to fight back.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, US President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance during their explosive meeting in the Oval Office.Credit: Bloomberg

The argument horrified the Western allies too, as they understand it is not just Ukraine that can no longer rely on US backing. As a result of the public broadcast, news quickly reached the citizens of those nations. From bureaucrat to burgher, the world was instantly aware that the old order was over.

For decades, the US has urged other Western countries to invest more in defence. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has dithered and procrastinated. In 1990, with the end of the Cold War, Germany’s defence spending cratered. The last year Germany spent 2 per cent or more of its gross domestic product on defence was 1991. In 2005, it spent only 1.1 per cent.

As recently as 2018, the German government considered a rise to investing 1.5 per cent of GDP in defence by 2024 to be generous. Then-German defence minister Ursula von der Leyen, who is president of the European Commission, made a big deal of committing to achieving this expenditure by 2024 instead of 2025.

Chancellor Angela Merkel eventually later agreed to a target of 2 per cent “by the early 2030s”. But there was no sense of hurry. While Merkel said “at the moment, Europe is unable to defend itself”, the assumption since WWII had been that, thanks to the Americans, it wouldn’t need to.

France and Britain have done a little better over the past couple of decades, but it’s a pass mark at best. Britain has cleared 2 per cent reasonably regularly, but it dropped in 2018, while France topped out at 2.1 per cent in the years 2009 and 2023.

These economically powerful European countries have been able to continue in this fashion because they have always known the US would step in should they ever come under attack. Australia is also guilty of underspending on defence, a particularly egregious oversight given our precarious geographical position in the world and our distance from our allies. New Zealand’s contributions to the alliance are hardly worth mentioning, except perhaps to embarrass the sacked diplomat who preened himself on a global stage.

Meanwhile, since 1960, the US has never spent less than 3 per cent of its GDP on defence.

By way of thanks, the citizens of the countries that relied on the US to come to their aid have for decades indulged in anti-America peace protests and condemnation of the US for behaving as “the world’s policeman”. Like trust fund kids protesting capitalism, they don’t need to worry about practicalities, what they need is always just there. Many indulged in the fantasy that peace is simply the natural order of the world, if only America would just stop being so warlike.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said Germany will do “whatever it takes” on defence. Credit: Getty Images

Then, just like that, Trump froze military aid to Ukraine. It became the responsibility of its European neighbours. America stopped being warlike and is no longer the “world’s policeman”.

If we thought we were allies, we’ve been shown that we’re really overgrown children, who’ve at long last been tossed out of home. Now, suddenly, it is clear that we’re going to have to pull our own weight. Turns out sparking up a joint and carrying a placard is not a meaningful contribution to peace.

Within a week, the French government declared that “Europe must ensure its own defence, not rely on the US”. French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that France’s nuclear arsenal might be used to protect Europe.

Germany’s new chancellor-presumptive (fresh out of the election, there are still formalities to be finalised) has promised to do “whatever it takes” on defence.

Van der Leyen has unveiled a plan to “rearm Europe” at a cost of €800 billion.

In a matter of days, Europe has grasped that it has to do what the US has been asking for nicely, for years. Step up as an actual ally, not mooch off America by relying on old ties. Far from smashing the Western alliance and destroying the global rules-based order, this looks suspiciously like making it stronger.

A quote commonly attributed to Churchill goes “no matter how beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results”. Perhaps that’s what the “mad” US president thinks of when his eyes light upon that bust.

Parnell Palme McGuinness is managing director at campaigns firm Agenda C. She has done work for the Liberal Party and the German Greens.