Under Trump, the US and China may be greater friends than ever

Much has been said about the impending trade war amid Donald Trump’s threats to implement new tariffs against China, Mexico and Canada. But while many fear this could exacerbate tensions between China and the United States, we could find China is not as impacted as first thought.

As Trump’s second presidential term begins, there is already a key difference in US-China relations from when he first took office. In the eight years since Trump first came to power, China has diversified its trade relationships to focus more on the global south and, in turn, made it less reliant on the US than it was between 2016 and 2020.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Another indication that the United States and China’s relations may stabilise or even improve under Trump is that the 47th president may have greater capacity to put democracy-based ideology aside, much like Richard Nixon did in the 1970s.

Unlike outgoing President Joe Biden, Trump does not emphasise a strict democracy-versus-autocracy framework. Instead, he has shown in the past that he can take a more pragmatic stance on global affairs. At the same time, notably, Trump has publicly entertained ideas such as annexing Greenland, reclaiming control of the Panama Canal, renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America,” and integrating Canada as the 51st state, all under the banner of defending a “free world” against China.

But while Trump has vowed to take decisive action on controversial election priorities in his first days in office, Trump may find an ally in Xi Jinping. Let us not forget that Trump has said that he aspires to be a “dictator”.

As the head of the People’s Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party, Xi is often characterised as the dictatorial leader of China’s so-called people’s democracy. As such, he is unlikely to criticise what Western commentators often describe as the “authoritarian” actions of Trump. And if anything, the two may find their leadership styles have common ground. They even share the common interest of maintaining a peaceful order and controlling the Taiwan issue to prevent a war over it.

All efforts are to support Trump’s aspiration to be “a president of peace” and Xi’s vision of developmental peace. A key priority for the Trump administration will be managing power rivalry with China. One constructive approach to this is to find possible pathways of ideological peaceful coexistence between the US and China.

This approach provides practical guidance on how to manage ideological competition between the two nations to reduce friction, encourage cooperation and create a stable foundation for navigating ideological tensions in a multipolar world. When a fire is already raging, it is wiser for both sides to avoid adding the fuel of ideological confrontation, which would only intensify geopolitical conflict.

According to this approach, strategic empathy is key. This entails cognitive empathy, affective empathy and the ability to cultivate a sense of harmony and reduced distrust. Cognitive empathy requires understanding the unique perspectives, motivations, history and strategic culture of other nations, while affective empathy means the two global superpowers resonate over similar feelings, fostering sympathy and deepening connections to nurture positive meaningful relationships. Much like a warring couple seeking marital counselling, strategic empathy encourages all parties to consider contentious issues from their opponents’ viewpoints, experiences and emotions.

This framework integrates both rational analysis and emotional engagement, offering a constructive path toward reducing tensions, easing geopolitical tensions and fostering collaboration.

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger with Chairman Mao Zedong in 1973.Credit: AP

It is worth noting that significant obstacles always hinder the progression from empathy to sympathy, and the transition from sympathy to fostering genuine friendliness is particularly challenging.

Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger exemplified this progression of understanding and engagement when he began negotiations with China in 1971. He began with a foundational level of empathy rooted in a realist perspective, then approached issues with sympathy, wisdom and detachment, considering the circumstances and motivations of both sides.

Ultimately, Kissinger reached a profound, third level of understanding and connection with China, where he came to be honoured as an old friend of the Chinese people.

Trump’s so-called “great common sense” appears capable of fostering a form of strategic empathy with China. But one of the key challenges he and his team will face upon entering the Oval Office is managing and balancing the competing interests of those within his inner circle such as billionaire industrialist Elon Musk, who advocates for deepening economic engagement with China, driven by both his business interests and broader political aspirations.

Yet, Musk’s political manoeuvring, such as his recent interventions in UK and German politics, adds complexity to Trump’s efforts to navigate international affairs. Meanwhile, the priority for Washington hawks like Matt Pottinger, a former deputy national security advisor during Trump’s first term, and former representative Mike Gallagher, is achieving a US “victory” through policies aimed at countering China. Some even advocate for granting Taiwan full diplomatic recognition. Balancing these divergent agendas will test the administration’s strategic and diplomatic acumen.

Both Trump and Xi are expected to attend international forums such as the G20 Summit in Johannesburg in November, which creates an opportunity for a meeting.

Whether their dialogue can foster a candid exchange that addresses longstanding ideological differences in a fresh, innovative, and peaceful manner remains uncertain. Certainly, such an engagement would test their political resolve, strategic wisdom, and ability to transcend deeply rooted ideological divides.

While Trump and Xi may have achieved a degree of strategic empathy – perhaps reaching only the early stages – significant challenges remain in translating their decisions into actionable outcomes, especially when ideological reconciliation encounters strong domestic opposition.

Professor Baogang He is Distinguished Professor and personal chair in international relations at Deakin University, and the co-author of China’s Galaxy Empire.

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