Trump uncertainty not biggest threat to $368 billion AUKUS pact, Pyne says

Washington: Former defence minister turned lobbyist Christopher Pyne says the biggest threats to the AUKUS pact are “naysayers” and a lethargic defence establishment, but admits the $368 billion program lacks a broad social licence and has only qualified support from the Trump administration.

While figures such as US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have backed the agreement in principle and accepted the first of Australia’s cheques, they remain nervous about selling submarines at a time when US production is lagging and threats to American interests are growing.

Former Australian defence minister Christopher Pyne in Washington, DC, on April 11.

“When he [Hegseth] speaks to journalists about AUKUS you can tell that he’s uncomfortable about AUKUS if it means that the Americans in any way have to give anything up to anybody,” Pyne said in an interview in Washington.

He also pointed to remarks from undersecretary for defence policy Elbridge Colby, who has called himself an AUKUS sceptic but at his confirmation hearing said the US should do what it can to make the deal work.

“There was a sense during the previous administration that it was more of a collaboration between three allies,” Pyne told this masthead. “[Now] it feels more like a commercial transaction and a favour to the Australian government and the UK from one great power to two allies … but still, it’s early days.”

Overall, Trump’s America First approach has “introduced a new level of uncertainty” about AUKUS, Pyne said. “Anybody who says that’s not true is blind to the facts.”

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Donald Trump was “very aware [and] supportive” of the AUKUS agreement.Credit: AP

Pyne said he did not think AUKUS was under threat and believed Australia would still receive its second-hand Virginia class submarines in the 2030s as scheduled. He criticised “armchair generals” and former politicians, including his friend Malcolm Turnbull, for undermining public confidence in the deal.

Growing AUKUS scepticism in Australia was noted earlier this month by The New York Times, which reported that Australia was debating the need for a plan B.

“There’s nothing wrong with having a plan B … as long as it doesn’t undermine plan A,” Pyne said. “I can’t see any reason why you wouldn’t have a plan B, but I also don’t see a need for plan B.”

He also urged Australia against copying the British with a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS, as called for by teal MPs. “We have far too many reviews of defence decisions … we have to get on with it. The last thing we need is a review [by] parliamentarians.”

Christopher Pyne tours the HMAS Collins submarine when he was defence minister in 2018.Credit: AAP

But Pyne acknowledged that amid the upheaval of President Donald Trump’s new approach to geopolitics and American allies, AUKUS lacked a social licence in Australia except among people who followed military affairs.

“There could be a lot more work done by Defence and by the government, and the opposition for that matter, on building social licence for AUKUS,” he said.

“If the public buy into AUKUS as a solution to the geostrategic situation that we face in the Indo-Pacific, then it’ll be a lot less likely that the naysayers will get their way.”

Pyne left politics in 2019 and is now a defence industry lobbyist. He spoke to this masthead following his annual AUKUS summit in Washington attended by ambassador Kevin Rudd, retired British second sea lord Sir Nick Hine and several US politicians.

Public scepticism about the lengthy and expensive program, especially in the wake of Trump’s disruption, was a recurring theme at the conference.

“We need our politicians to fully understand and defend the budgetary consequences of our submarine program as it matures,” former British defence secretary Michael Fallon said.

“We also need to remind our publics of the original purpose of AUKUS. Far from casting doubt ... we should now be doubling down.”

Former prime minister Scott Morrison, who struck the deal with then-US president Joe Biden and then-British prime minister Boris Johnson in 2021, gave a speech in the Canadian capital of Ottawa last week, in which he said the price of entry to AUKUS was higher than what Canada was currently prepared to pay.

“It’s not a diplomatic luncheon club. It is a serious partnership designed to build the most advanced defence technology in the world,” he told the Canada Strong and Free Network, as reported by The Globe and Mail.

“With Canada investing less than 1.5 per cent – and that’s being generous – of GDP in defence, the price of entry is a lot higher than that.”

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