Trump’s shadow is electoral kryptonite to the voters Dutton needs most

Given President Donald Trump’s professed following of the Village People, evinced by his campaign adopting Y.M.C.A at rallies in last year’s election, he may have had their song Liberation in mind when he dubbed last week’s announcement of global tariffs “Liberation Day”.

The Village People probably had other people’s liberation in mind rather than a billionaire real estate developer turned leader of the free world. But the people Trump claims to represent – the American poor thrown out of their jobs by the decline of manufacturing in the US – won’t be liberated; they are the people who will be hurt the most.

Credit: Illustration Rob Duong

As tariffs on imported goods drive up prices, inflation kills businesses and leads to unemployment, and the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, the economic and social wastelands that Trump says he will transform into boom towns will be the ones least capable of dealing with the losses.

For those who comforted themselves with the illusion that Trump was only making off-the-wall statements during the election to win, but would govern in an orthodox way as president, in the words of Donny Brasco: “Forget about it.” Trump means to govern this way for the next four years – at least. And if he can’t change the rules and stay beyond that, he will replace himself with someone who agrees with him and his policies.

Which brings us to what this means for the upcoming Australian election. The only people who want Trump inserted in this election are those in the Labor Party. Or they should be. Anyone who thinks Trump is an electoral positive for the opposition either wants the Coalition to lose or has zero political acumen. (I’m not saying they don’t exist, but they are wrong.)

For evidence, look at Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party and its lack of success. Despite adopting Trump’s suite of issues almost entirely, and an advertising blitz that would make KFC’s advertising gurus blush, the awkwardly named party is hovering at 1 or 2 per cent in recent polling. In Australia, Trump is about as popular as the Women’s Temperance Union at a B&S ball.

Many Australians were shocked when Trump won in 2024, and I suspect one of the reasons for this is that voters here don’t understand how unique our voting system is. Here, it is compulsory to vote, and it is a preferential – not first past the post – model. This means that if you vote Green (perish the thought), you’re asked to nominate who your second preference might be should they not get elected. Usually, it’s Labor. Similarly, if you vote One Nation and their candidate isn’t one of the last two standing, your vote usually goes to the Coalition.

This drives the Coalition to attempt to win from a centre-right position, and Labor from the centre-left. The opposite is true in the US, where a candidate firstly needs to get voters to the ballot box, and secondly needs them sufficiently fired up to vote for them. This drives the vote away from the centre and towards the outer edges of the spectrum.

That’s how Trump won in 2024. But it is not how Dutton can win in 2025. He needs to eschew the rattier elements of Trump’s agenda, which he is doing. He may benefit from voters believing he is better placed to deal with a Trump White House because Republicans and the Coalition are both on the right, but that is marginal. Anyone who believes that probably already supports the Liberals or Nationals, anyway.

In any event, Trump offering no exemptions from his tariffs policy suggests he doesn’t care who is in government in Australia. Hell, he didn’t even exempt the penguins of Heard and McDonald Islands in the Southern Indian Ocean!

Labor and Anthony Albanese keep mentioning the “Americanisation” of Australian politics and inserting Trump where it seems helpful, for one reason only: it hurts Dutton and the Coalition.

This is especially true in once-Liberal stronghold electorates that the Coalition needs to win back from independents. Trump is electoral kryptonite to the educated, affluent voters in those seats. In my opinion, the Coalition won’t form government until at least some of those seats return to the fold. There just aren’t enough seats in the regions and the outer suburbs.

Domestic economic issues win Australian elections. Dutton and his team are smart enough to know this. That’s why he keeps dragging every interview and conference back to the cost of living.

The Coalition has done well to keep the dial firmly trained on the economic agenda for three years. It remains to be seen if they can ignore the siren song of chaos in the US for another four weeks and keep voters focused on the unpaid bills sitting on the kitchen table.

Christopher Pyne is executive chairman of lobbying firm Pyne and Partners and a former minister in the Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments.

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