Master stroke or mistake? Trump defies his base in seizing the moment to strike Iran
Washington: Five months after the starter’s gun fired on Donald Trump’s second presidency, he has made his most consequential decision.
Perhaps not just the most consequential decision of just his presidency, but of several, given the decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities had been one faced by many of his predecessors, who ultimately opted against the idea.
US President Donald Trump, with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaks from the White House in Washington on Sunday AEST.Credit: AP
The merits of this cannot and will not be known today, not until the damage to the three Iranian sites has been assessed and the regime’s retaliation, whatever that may be, has taken place.
But politically, this move fundamentally changes the shape of the Trump presidency. The accusation of timidity and indecision – Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) – that has so irritated him in recent months can no longer be credibly levelled against him.
Did that irksome critique contribute to his resolve? We don’t know. But it is becoming clearer that Trump has followed a predetermined path, or at the very least, seized on an opportunity with relish – and along the way, he has obscured his intentions to America and the world.
It was not true on Thursday, when Trump told Iran he would decide within two weeks whether to intervene. It is looking increasingly untrue that Israel, when it kicked off this offensive nine days ago, acted unilaterally and without US involvement, as we were told at the time.
“We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before,” Trump said on Sunday (AEST) of the US and Israel.
Of Iran’s state-sponsored terrorism, he said: “I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen.”
His short speech after the US attack contrasted starkly with his rhetoric on Iran over the past weeks and months. Gone was the language of diplomacy, the love for the Iranian people, the optimism that it’s never too late for a deal.
“There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran – far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” Trump said. “If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill.”
Iran was not just a rogue state with nuclear ambitions. It was the bully of the Middle East, Trump said, and the United States would no longer tolerate its agents “blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs”.
For a president whose style and rhetoric are so often a radical departure from what we would expect from the occupant of the White House, this was arguably the most like a typical US president Trump has sounded.
We are used to him extending olive branches to America’s adversaries. We are used to him telegraphing every move in advance and conducting the presidency via a stream of consciousness on TV or TruthSocial. This time, he did the opposite.
One may say, fairly, that Trump lulled Iran into a false sense of security out of military necessity; that, of course, one would shield their plans when it comes to a military operation of this magnitude.
Hardcore red line
One might also observe that Trump was unwavering in his insistence – not just in recent weeks but for a decade – that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and that this was a hardcore red line for him and his America First ideology.
But one might also say, as the Democrats’ House of Representatives leader Hakeem Jeffries did, that with his fake “two weeks” pretence, Trump “misled the country about his intentions”, and that he failed to seek congressional approval for an act that may yet lead the US into another Middle Eastern conflict.
That would infuriate large swaths of Trump’s MAGA base, which formed in part from opposition to the neo-conservative, interventionist agenda of the Republicans under George W. Bush. Trump was the guy who said he would not involve the US in more follies in the Middle East.
Some will not forgive this decision, viewing it as a clear betrayal of America First isolationism. But plenty will cast aside their predilections and back the boss – because what Trump says goes.
“Iran gave President Trump no choice,” said Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, an important MAGA campaign architect who has tried to rally the faithful behind the president over the past week-and-a-bit.
“With the weight of the world on his shoulders, President Trump acted for the betterment of humanity. For the next few hours, spare us the armchair quarterbacking and instead trust our commander-in-chief.”
Despite Trump’s declaration of success, it is too soon to tell whether this was a master stroke or a mistake. But one thing is clear: the TACO era is over.
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