The state with a bitter history for Democrats isn’t being taken for granted now
Wisconsin has only voted Republican once in 40 years – for Donald Trump. But the way Democrats lost it in 2016 ensured it is a top destination for Kamala Harris this year.
Donald Trump looked livid. The former president had only just taken the stage in what was meant to be a triumphant return to the Milwaukee venue where he formally accepted his party’s presidential nomination three months ago.
But less than 10 minutes into his usual stump speech, the rally was derailed after members of the crowd began chanting: “Fix The Mic! Fix The Mic!” indicating they were struggling to hear him.
Wisconsin is one of the seven battleground states. Credit: Matt Absalom-Wong
“Oh, the mic?” Trump said, as he realised they weren’t chanting for him but at him. He grabbed it and jerked it out of the microphone holder.
“You’ve got to be kidding me. Do you want to see me knock the hell out of people backstage?”
It was hardly the way Trump wanted to deliver a closing pitch and far removed from the first time he appeared at Fiserv Forum to a hero’s welcome at the Republican National Convention, merely two days after he was almost assassinated.
Back then, Republicans seemed almost unstoppable, galvanised by his near-death experience and a shambolic Democratic Party reeling from Joe Biden’s dismal debate performance a week earlier.
Kamala Harris greets the Wisconsin women’s volleyball team before speaking at a campaign rally in Madison, Wisconsin.Credit: AP
Now, the convicted felon and presidential candidate is fighting for his political life – and to stay out of jail – against a younger, more formidable opponent who believes she has the momentum behind her.
“I’m up here seething!” he lamented as the microphone glitches continued, resulting in Trump at one point bobbing up and down over the mic stand with his mouth open as if performing a lewd act. “I’m working my ass off with this stupid mic!”
Welcome to Wisconsin, a Midwest haven famous for its cheese curds, breweries, and the Green Bay Packers; less so for bizarre moments during presidential election campaigns.
In the last two elections, it was also known as “the tipping point” state – the one that provided the decisive votes for a candidate to reach the majority needed to win the presidency.
The question now is whether it tips the balance for the third consecutive year – and if so, for whom?
Known as “America’s Dairyland” – its prominent dairy industry is featured on its licence plates and slogan – Wisconsin was a Democratic stronghold until Hillary Clinton lost to Trump, albeit by a razor-thin margin of 23,000 votes, or 0.77 per cent. This made her the first Democratic presidential nominee who didn’t win here since 1984. Trump then lost to Joe Biden in 2020 by under 21,000 votes, or 0.63 per cent.
But the defeat nonetheless became a lesson in how not to run for political office. Clinton famously didn’t visit Wisconsin at all during her 2016 campaign, adding to the narrative that the Democrats had become a party of Washington elites.
As such, Trump’s victory was also part of a broader trend because, along with Wisconsin, he also picked up Michigan and Pennsylvania – effectively breaking the so-called “blue wall” of Democratic strongholds. But as Clinton would later acknowledge: “If there’s one place where we were caught by surprise, it was Wisconsin. Polls showed us comfortably ahead, right up until the end.”
Kamala Harris has not been making the same mistakes. Two days after Biden stepped down and endorsed her, the vice president headed straight to Milwaukee, where she emphasised the importance of Wisconsin as a swing state and framed the election as “a choice between freedom and chaos”.
Since then, Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, have collectively spent more time here than Trump and his vice presidential pick J.D. Vance, visiting the state at least eight times.
This included an event with former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, which was designed to win over independents and disaffected Republican voters.
And last week, just as Trump struggled with his microphone, US hip-hop artist Cardi B also had her own technical glitches when the teleprompter seemed to freeze as soon as she took the stage.
“I wasn’t going to vote,” she said, reading her speech off a phone instead. “But Kamala Harris joining the race – she changed my mind. I believe every word that comes out of her mouth.”
If Harris wins Wisconsin this week, it will be, in part, due to people like Shawn Reilly, the mayor of Waukesha, a once predictably and staunchly Republican area that started to shift in the Trump era.
Reilly is emblematic of the trend. He distinctly remembers helping his father canvass for the Republicans in the 1960s and ’70s when he was a child by putting pamphlets on the doors of people who weren’t home or didn’t answer. But while he voted for the party for most of his life, he couldn’t bring himself to back Trump in 2016 or in 2020 when he “quietly” voted for Biden.
This year, however, he chose to “come out” publicly, much to the surprise of his friends, “because I generally am not someone to try to tell other people how to vote”. Now, he’s urging people to pick Harris. It was his first endorsement of a Democrat running for office.
“For me, this is extremely important,” says Reilly, who has been mayor since 2014.
“I think we, once again, are at a crossroads, and decisions have to be made by every single individual as to where we’re going as a country.”
Donald Trump prepares to climb into a rubbish truck in Green Bay, Wisconsin.Credit: Getty Images
“If Donald Trump is elected president, his second term will be much more concerning and much more dangerous for the United States – and actually for the entire world – because he has no guardrails at this point. All of his actions have shown that he is not fit to be our president.”
Waukesha is not the only county that has experienced an incremental erosion of its Republican strength in recent years. So, too, has its suburban Milwaukee neighbours, Washington County and Ozaukee County (the three of them are known collectively as the “WOW” counties of Wisconsin).
Among its locals is army veteran and social worker Tiffany Koehler, a former Republican candidate for Wisconsin’s 15th Assembly District.
As someone who has spent most of her adult life working with numerous civic non-profit organisations and across the public sector, Koehler says she is backing Harris this year because she wants someone in the Oval Office who will respect the rule of law, US institutions – and science.
But Koehler also raises a theory that many other voters have raised this year, too. Just as polling in 2016 missed a “hidden” Trump vote from people who had been uncomfortable publicly supporting him – similar to the United Kingdom’s “shy Tories” – there’s always the chance that pollsters aren’t picking up a cohort of Republican-leaning folk who are fed up with Donald Trump but are simply keeping this to themselves.
She says some of her neighbours – including elected local officials – do not support Trump’s antics but still have lawn signs endorsing him.
“Knowing who they are and their character, I think they’re afraid to say they’re not going to vote for Donald Trump because they know the repercussions politically and professionally,” Koehler says.
To what extent there is indeed “a quiet Kamala” voting bloc out there is unlikely to be known until after the election. For now, however, the polls show the race remains extremely close, just as it has been for months.
According to the latest FiveThirtyEight polling aggregate, Harris is ahead by one percentage point is Wisconsin, but that is well within the margin of error.
Perhaps a more accurate barometer lies about further north, in the coastal haven of Door County, whose voters have picked the president for the past six elections.
Situated on a stunning peninsula between Green Bay and Lake Michigan, this tight-knit community is made up of about 30,000 people, from small business owners and blue-collar workers to farmers, shipbuilders and retirees from other parts of the Midwest.
“I don’t know if you’ve heard that term ‘Wisconsin nice’, but that really sums up Door County,” says Stephanie Soucek, the chair of the local Republican Party.
Asked about the state of the race, she reckons Republicans have got the momentum at the right time, with volunteers on the ground and third parties also coming in to campaign for Trump.
Among them is Elon Musk’s campaign fundraising group AmericaPAC, as well Turning Point Action, the group run by conservative warrior Charlie Kirk to target low propensity voters – particularly men.
As for the shy Kamala voter, I ask? “What’s interesting is Trump has that same type of voter, so I don’t know if it would kind of be a wash,” Soucek replies.
“There are people who really just don’t want to say where they stand because they don’t want to deal with any pushback or drama.
“But we’re not going to put too much stock in the polls. We’re just going to work hard, no matter what, to get out as many people as possible. Everyone here is anxious on both sides because we know how much of a close race Wisconsin will be.”
Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here.