Even as ‘red wave’ falters, Republicans on track to take control of the US House

Washington: Americans are bracing for a new era of divided government, with Republicans favoured to wrest control of the House of Representatives from Joe Biden and the Democrats in the midterm elections – yet the prospects of a “red wave” did not eventuate.

In a midterm contest that Biden warned would be the most consequential in recent history, fears of a Democratic rout had not been met by Wednesday morning (US time) after the party held on in key bellwether races while the critical Senate seats of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada were too close to call.

Former president Donald Trump greets guests watching the midterm elections at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.Credit: AP

In Pennsylvania, Democrat candidate and stroke survivor John Fetterman flipped the Senate seat from the Republicans, in a state that could be a tipping point for control of the chamber.

But the party’s hopes of winning Ohio were dashed by the victory of another Trump-endorsed candidate JD Vance, a venture capitalist and author of Hillbilly Elegy. In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, who was viewed as the most vulnerable Republican Senate incumbent, also ended up winning his seat.

The prospect of Trump facing fierce rivalry for the presidential nomination has also intensified after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis cruised to victory in his governor’s race and cemented Republican power in a state that was once a battleground.

Incumbent Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis speaks to supporters at an election night party after winning his race,Credit: AP

DeSantis - a culture wars warrior who controversially kept his state open during the global pandemic - was declared the winner shortly after the polls closed, thanks to a surge in Hispanics shifting towards Republicans.

“We have embraced freedom. We have maintained law and order. We have protected the rights of parents,” DeSantis said after securing the widest margin in a Florida governor’s race since Jeb Bush in 2002.

“We will never surrender to the ‘woke’ mob. Florida is where ‘woke’ comes to die.”

The victory was the most decisive in a vote count that could take days but will ultimately determine who controls Congress and in turn, the direction of the country for the next two years. More than 435 House seats were up for grabs, along with 35 seats in the 100-member Senate as well as hundreds of state-based leadership positions.

Against the backdrop of record inflation and soaring gas prices, the Democrats headed into the election bracing for big losses. But as the night wore on, the party did better than expected and in the fight for the House, only one Democratic incumbent, Elaine Luria of Virginia, had been defeated by early Wednesday.

“Definitely not a Republican wave, that’s for darn sure,” Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told NBC News.

This election was the first since the attack on the US Capitol and the first since the Supreme Court’s monumental decision in June to overturn the constitutional right to abortion.

In the final days of the campaign, Republican candidates stuck to their central themes of inflation, crime and immigration, while Democrats focused on abortion and the threat to democracy.

Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance meets with supporters after casting his ballot..Credit: AP

With so many seats on a knife-edge, Democrats could still lose control of Congress, which would make it harder for Biden to deliver on his policy agenda. It also could pave the way for a series of inquiries previously flagged by Republicans, such as a probe into the alleged “weaponisation” of the Justice Department or an inquiry into the financial dealings of the president’s son, Hunter Biden.

The current House Speaker, Democrat Nancy Pelosi – whose husband was brutally attacked with a hammer in the latest example of political violence in America – would probably be replaced by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

“Tonight, we built upon those gains two years ago and it is clear we are going to take the house back,” McCarthy said. “When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority.”

Biden would still have presidential veto power to block laws Republicans attempt to push through, and has vowed to use it to protect women’s reproductive rights.

“If we lose the House and Senate, it’s going to be a horrible two years,” he said in Illinois over the weekend. “The good news is I’ll have a veto pen.”

Trump, meanwhile, has already laid the groundwork for another presidential bid, declaring at an election-eve rally in Ohio that he would make “a very big announcement” about his future next week at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

But the mixed results for Trump-backed candidates in critical battlegrounds, coupled with DeSantis’ decisive victory, could undercut this if the ambitious Florida governor also seeks the Republican nomination to run for the White House in 2024, as he is expected to do.

The close of the voting has also – so far – taken place with no major examples of trouble at polls. Disturbances at polling places have mostly been limited malfunctions of equipment, confusion about polling hours, and the routine glitches for which America’s sprawling localised electoral system is known.

Voter turnout was also at record highs: by mid-afternoon on Monday more than 42 million had already cast a ballot by mail or by heading to early voting centres.

As the momentum appeared to shift towards Republicans in the final days of the campaign, Biden and the White House had been criticised – including by those within their own ranks – for not crafting a coherent message on the economy to counter the Republicans’ attack.

However, Kristin Rowe-Finkbeiner a mother of two from Washington State told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald that the Democrats had sought to put in place reforms to help struggling families, such as paid medical leave, childcare, health community services and a child tax credit. These were contained in Biden’s so-called “Build Back Better” bill, which was blocked in an evenly split Senate.

“We have seen the Democrats follow through on their prior campaign promises, and we’ve seen a wall of defence from Republicans,” said Rowe-Finkbeiner, who runs the grassroots group MomsRising, which has worked to mobilise families in key swing states.

Other key races included the fiercely contested rematch to become the governor of Georgia, where Republican incumbent Brian Kemp defeated voting rights activist Stacey Abrams.

In New Hampshire, Democrat Senator Maggie Hassan clung on to her seat against retired brigadier general Don Bolduc. And in New York, Democrat Kathy Hochul became the first woman elected as the state’s governor, beating Lee Zeldin in a surprisingly tight race due concerns about rising crime.

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