Yahya Sinwar is dead. Good riddance. Now, we brace for what happens next

One of the most remarkable things about the elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is the somewhat unremarkable way in which he was found. After a year-long hunt for the October 7 mastermind involving advanced warfare technology, US intelligence and the deaths of thousands of civilians in Gaza, in the end, IDF troops seem to have accidentally stumbled on the terrorist kingpin sitting in a dust-covered armchair in a shelled building.

While Sinwar was suspected to be in the area, it seems the 828th Battalion was not aware of the identity of the man in the chair when they opened tank fire on the Rafah apartment block. It was only after the troops inspected the body, and DNA testing and dental record matching had taken place, that Israel was able to confirm that Sinwar had been killed in the strike.

Footage the IDF claims shows Yahya Sinwar before his death.Credit: IDF

This is cause for celebration in Israel, and around the world. No decent person will mourn his loss.

As The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman writes today, it is impossible to exaggerate the significance of Sinwar’s demise. “It creates the possibility not only of ending the Israel-Hamas war, returning Israeli hostages and bringing relief to the people of the Gaza Strip,” Friedman says.

“It creates the possibility for the biggest step toward a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians since Oslo, as well as normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia – which means pretty much the entire Muslim world.”

But, Friedman argues, there’s a catch.

“The death of Sinwar alone is not the sufficient condition to end this war and put Israelis and Palestinians on a pathway to a better future,” he writes. “Yes, Sinwar and Hamas always rejected a two-state solution and were committed to the violent destruction of the Jewish state. No one paid a bigger price for that than the Palestinians living in Gaza. But while his death was necessary for a next step to be possible, it was never going to be everything.

“The sufficient condition is that Israel has a leader and a governing coalition ready to step up to the opportunity Sinwar’s death has created.”

US President Joe Biden certainly agrees this should represent a before-and-after moment. “Now’s the time to move on,” he told reporters. “Move on, move towards a ceasefire in Gaza, make sure that we are moving in a direction that we’re going to be able to make things better for the whole world. It’s time for this war to end and bring these hostages home.”

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was singing from the same song sheet, calling Sinwar an enemy of peace-loving people everywhere. “His death is a significant moment and can be a vital turning point in this devastating conflict.”

I’m not so sure whether any of this will change the trajectory of the war in the Middle East, at least in the short term. Israel is yet to launch a retaliatory strike for Tehran’s firing of 200 ballistic missiles at the start of this month; IDF troops and Hezbollah terrorists are still fighting in southern Lebanon; and the Sinwar killing shows Hamas operatives continue to hide out in Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave no indication on Friday that the war would end. “Today we have settled the score. Today evil has been dealt a blow but our task has still not been completed,” Netanyahu said in a recorded video statement. “To the dear hostage families, I say: this is an important moment in the war. We will continue full force until all your loved ones, our loved ones, are home.”

I am proud of the Herald’s coverage of events in the Middle East over the past year, as well as the impact it has had on Australia’s social cohesion. Some readers may think we haven’t always got it right, and I respect those views. But I have a huge amount of respect, too, for our reporters and editors who have worked hard to navigate the many challenges this story presents each day, and often hour by hour.

In particular, I’d like to offer a shoutout to Herald photographer Kate Geraghty and foreign affairs and national security correspondent Matthew Knott, who are on assignment in Lebanon. You can read their brilliant work here.

Unlike Gaza, where Israel prevents journalists from working, we have been able to get our staff on the ground in Lebanon to explore the impact of the widening conflict in the region. Kate and Matt have brought real empathy to their reporting but they have also asked the tough questions about Hezbollah’s grip over the Lebanese people.

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