Why Hezbollah’s best hope is for Israel to invade Lebanon

Israel’s military is primed for all-out war with Hezbollah after unleashing its heaviest attack on Lebanon in a generation. It follows weeks of threats to do so by Israel’s leadership and “necessary war” rhetoric from hawkish commentators.

Israel’s declared war aims now include creating a buffer zone in Lebanon and ensuring the safe return to their homes of 60,000 Israelis displaced from the north of the country.

A man stands in what remains of an apartment building in Beirut’s southern suburbs following Friday’s Israeli strike on the area.Credit: AP

And it is not just Israel that’s upped the rhetoric. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said that in last week’s exploding pager surprise (for which someone in the Israeli military will get promoted) Israel had crossed a red line. In that view, the Israel Defense Forces’ wholesale bombing of the south of Lebanon and the death of hundreds of Lebanese crossed another.

Unfortunately, a rematch of their bloody clash in 2006 seems assured.

But Nasrallah is wrong. For Israel, any sense of red lines was obliterated on October 7, 2023 when Hamas led an armed incursion into southern Israel, killing about 1200 people. That day of murder and terror burnt the rule book. Much of Gaza now resembles Carthage after the third Punic War. And the region is on the brink of spreading that degree of death and devastation further.

A man places a poster of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah near bouquets of flowers in front of the Lebanese Embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Wednesday.Credit: AP

While winners in this scenario are hard to discern, losers will probably be everywhere. Most exposed is Lebanon. Beirut, a Mediterranean jewel that survived wars and vicious civil conflict, will be lucky to remain recognisable as the city it is. Israel will target Hezbollah assets and supporters there.

The IDF is probably determined to hold Hezbollah to account for its attacks on Israel that resulted in widespread misery. Nor will Beirut be alone in that fate. Significant Lebanese infrastructure is likely to be targeted as part of Israel’s plan of attack.

Israel is not interested in red lines, and Lebanon will probably come to know the horror of that.

Hezbollah itself, having prepared for this day for the past 18 years, will feel confident in its ability to withstand the withering Israeli barrage that is unfolding. Tunnels, training and new equipment, perhaps including anti-aircraft capabilities and anti-ship missiles, a belief that they won in 2006, and a celebration of martyrdom all strengthen Hezbollah’s resolve and willingness to join the fray.

Currently, the war is fought in the air. Jets, rockets and missiles streak across the sky delivering destruction and disruption. Israel’s 60,000 citizens displaced from northern Israel testify to the fear that deadly strikes from the air can deliver. Destroyed rocket launchers and other infrastructure in Lebanon speak to the same.

But can an aerial war, even an incredibly intensive one that both Israel and Hezbollah envisage, deliver a decisive victory? With Lebanon in ruins, will Israelis be able to safely return to their homes in the north? And even with a massive barrage of rockets, missiles and drones, can Hezbollah achieve any victory beyond the rhetorical?

It is likely that the answer to all three questions is a resounding no. History has shown that control of territory is key, and that involves going and taking it.

This is Hezbollah’s hope, and perhaps, its only chance of avoiding a comprehensive defeat. While some commentators have warned that Hezbollah has plans to invade the north of Israel and threaten Israel’s major cities, Hezbollah’s real chance, perhaps its only chance, is if the Israeli Defence Forces invade southern Lebanon.

There is a significant possibility that the invader, whether it is Israel into Lebanon, or Hezbollah into Israel, risks catastrophic defeat.

With the IDF needing to hold strong defensive positions against Egypt, and a prudent level of forces against Jordan, as well as forces committed to Gaza, there is a possibility of Hezbollah achieving some success on the ground in northern Israel. But such a development would bring in the US, which is committed to the defence of Israel and has historic scores to settle with Hezbollah. That’s effectively game over for the organisation.

Hezbollah will probably seek to provoke the IDF into invading Lebanon, and if that happens, the world will learn if there is any truth to Hezbollah’s boasting of its web of tunnels, sophisticated tactics and advanced capabilities.

Having been in Beirut in 2006 during their previous conflict, and having liaised with people who were familiar with Hezbollah, I would not underestimate its ability to inflict serious damage on the IDF. The most worrying sign for Israel may be if an IDF invasion makes unexpectedly quick progress. Hezbollah’s infrastructure, predicated on such an invasion, probably has the potential to cut off, encircle and decimate an IDF force. A war of terrible destruction seems guaranteed. A war of atrocious attrition is also possible.

One thing is certain. No red lines will be observed. Once both sides commit to all-out war, there will be no umpire, no moral code or international rules to protect anyone involved. It makes me hope that the descriptor “necessary war” is an overstatement of current regional thinking.

David Livingstone is a former Australian diplomat and an international security and strategy specialist. He served as deputy head of mission in Iraq between 2011 and 2012.