What would a ‘crushing victory’ actually look like for Netanyahu?

In a speech overnight, as Israel expanded its Gaza operation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described how his job is “to lead the State of Israel and the people to a crushing victory over our enemies”.

Victory is an important concept in our understanding of war, but at the same time can be very difficult to define. Cian O’Driscoll writes in his book Victory: The Triumph and Tragedy of Just War, “It can be hard to pin down exactly what victory means in practical terms. Although we know it stands for winning, what this means in practice is anyone’s guess.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for “a crushing victory over our enemies”. Credit: Via AP

The meaning of victory depends on the objectives that underpin that success. For Netanyahu, his definition of victory is rooted in the destruction of Hamas, and the return of the hostages taken by Hamas on October 7. These are appropriate objectives given the atrocious behaviour of Hamas. It is an organisation that has long engaged in aggression towards Israel, and its founding documents have called for the destruction of Israel. In this regard, Hamas is no different from the Nazis, who sought to exterminate the Jewish people. No one of good character or common sense could begrudge the Israelis for wishing to destroy Hamas.

To do this, the Israelis have launched the largest military operation against Hamas since the terrorist organisation’s formation in the late 1980s. An expanded operation, with an Israeli advance into Gaza with armoured bulldozers, tanks and heavy infantry fighting vehicles in the vanguard, appears to be the next phase of a sustained Gaza operation.

The Israeli force involved is not just a ground force, but one that features military forces operating from the air and the sea, as well as in the electromagnetic spectrum and in the global information environment. It is a massive undertaking that is indicative of the threat Israel is facing from Hamas. At the same time, Israel will be hoping that this massive operation and deployment of other forces to northern Israel will deter others such as Hezbollah wanting to exploit this situation in Gaza to attack Israel.

The Israeli forces now fighting in Gaza face a difficult urban environment. They will be fighting for, and with, information. Modern technology may provide increased visibility of the battlefield, but it does not always improve our wisdom about what is happening, or the motivations of those involved.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with soldiers stationed near the Gaza Strip in Jerusalem.Credit: Getty

At the same time, a massive expansion in the military use of autonomous systems – driven by the war in Ukraine – will be exploited by Hamas. Israeli troops must operate on an urban battlefield environment where enemy drones will be ubiquitous. Not only will this enhance the situational awareness of Hamas commanders and fighters, it means that Hamas can more effectively exploit its subterranean network to move fighters to the right place at the right time, as well as use it to focus the operations of its snipers, car bombers and other means to attack the Israeli ground forces.

For Israel, the challenge of civilians – and hostages – in contested urban areas is significant. In every previous Israeli incursion into Gaza, there have been civilian casualties. This time will be no different. But all of those tunnels built under Gaza by Hamas are very unlikely to be used to protect civilians. And as we have seen in the past few weeks, killing and wounding civilians is not only a moral and legal issue. It is a strategic one. Every account of civilian casualties, rapidly reported in the global information environment, further enrages audiences in the Middle East and beyond.

The recent destruction of internet services in Gaza will impede understanding of what is happening. But information and misinformation will still get out. And as with every previous Israeli operation conducted in Gaza, there will come a point when diplomatic pressure from America and Europe will place it under almost unbearable pressure for a ceasefire.

On the ninth day of the 2021 Israel-Gaza crisis, President Biden is reported to have spoken to the Israeli Prime Minister and told him that: “Hey, man, we are out of runway here.” A ceasefire followed two days later. While the circumstances of October 7 may mean that Israel has “more runway” in this situation, that runway is not infinite. It will need to achieve its military objectives and set the foundations for longer-term political goals before the strategic clock runs out.

And that brings us back to the concept of victory raised by Netanyahu. Despite the military prowess of the Israelis, the destruction of Hamas and “victory” are unlikely to be the same thing.

British scholar Beatrice Heuser has described how military victory does not bring lasting achievement of one’s war aims, and that the most important objective of war is “to make a just and durable peace”. Notions of victory must include economic, diplomatic and societal long-term needs as well as short- and medium-term military outcomes.

In modern war, victory must therefore include the binary approaches of winning the war as well as winning the peace. Such must be the case with Israel’s Gaza operations. Because an Israeli military “victory” that does not also underpin a long-term, stable and just political solution will mean we are probably back here again in a few years’ time.

Mick Ryan is a retired major general who served in the ADF for more than 35 years and was commander of the Australia Defence College. He is the author of War Transformed and an adjunct fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC.