This is Code Red time for an Israel-Iran ballistic missile war

Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel was executed by the air force of its Revolutionary Guard and was not an operation of the regular Iranian army or air force, according to Israeli sources. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was not informed of the attack until shortly before it began, the sources said, indicating that the Iranian regime is divided over the operation, which will probably add to the fractures in the government.

Israel’s ability to anticipate the Iranian strike and name the precise hour of the attack, and the fact that it was a Revolutionary Guard operation – not the regular Iranian armed forces under the command of the new president – demonstrates how deeply the Mossad, Israel’s cyber command, Unit 8200 (Defence intelligence), and the Israeli air force have penetrated the Iranian regime and coordinated their defensive response. It means no Iranian leader can trust any other any more.

Demonstrators cheer as they wave Iranian and other flags in an anti-Israel gathering in Tehran, celebrating Iran’s missile strikes on Tel Aviv and other Israeli sites.Credit: AP

We may be about to enter what could be the most dangerous moment in the history of the modern Middle East: a ballistic missile war between Iran and Israel, which would almost certainly bring in the United States on Israel’s side and could culminate in a full-blown US-Israeli effort to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.

That is the assessment I have gleaned from talking to Israeli intelligence sources.

The Iranian missiles were aimed at three targets. First, the headquarters of the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, near Tel Aviv. Second, the Israeli air base at Nevatim, and third, the Israeli air base at Khatzirim. Both bases are in the south of Israel in the Negev desert. The Israeli officials are particularly concerned about any strike on Mossad headquarters because it is in the densely populated north Tel Aviv suburb of Ramat Hasharon. It is also not far from the Israeli Defence Force intelligence headquarters, Unit 8200.

This information has been shared with me because the Israelis insist that they do not want a full-scale ballistic war with Iran and want the US to try to deter the Iranians by letting them know it will not be a bystander, and that Israel’s response, unlike with the April 13 Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel, will not be purely defensive. In other words, Iran could be risking its entire nuclear program.

One might think that Israel is itching for this kind of war with Iran to finally take out its nuclear program and involve the US. That is not my impression. A war of ballistic missiles could do enormous damage to Israel’s infrastructure unless virtually every missile is intercepted.

The Israeli intelligence assessment is that the Iranian people by and large do not want this war with Israel. There has long been discontent in Iran over the billions of dollars the regime has spent supporting Hamas and Hezbollah at a time when Iranian infrastructure is so dilapidated and the country’s economy is on its back.

The message the Israelis hope the US can convey to Iran is also that if it starts this war and it leads to great destruction and death of Iranian civilians, it could also trigger an uprising against the regime.

My bottom line: as an American, I hope the Iranians stand down from these missile strikes. I also hope the Israelis curb their onslaught right now against Hezbollah.

In the past year, we have seen red lines crossed left and right – from the savage Hamas onslaught on Israel on October 7 to the Israeli pager attack against Hezbollah’s leadership and the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The Iranians feel their deterrence has been eroded and need to respond.

This is Code Red time. Because once you start crossing red lines, they all disappear.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.