Israel’s first open attack on Iran targets missile sites, but spares oil and nuclear ones

Washington: Commercial satellite imagery showed that Israeli airstrikes on Saturday hit buildings outside Tehran that Iran used for mixing solid fuel for ballistic missiles, according to separate assessments by two American researchers.

The judgments were reached by David Albright, a former United Nations weapons inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security research group, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank.

The west side of the city in Tehran, Iran. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.Credit: NYT

They told Reuters separately that Israel struck Parchin, a massive military complex near Tehran. Israel also hit Khojir, a sprawling missile production site near Tehran, according to Eveleth.

Reuters reported in July that Khojir was undergoing massive expansion.

Eveleth said the Israeli strikes might have “significantly hampered Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles”.

The Israeli military said three waves of Israeli jets struck missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran early on Saturday in retaliation for Tehran’s October 1 barrage of more than 200 missiles against Israel.

Iran’s military said the Israeli warplanes used “very light warheads” to strike border radar systems in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and around Tehran.

Eveleth said that an image from Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, showed that an Israeli strike destroyed two buildings in Khojir where solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.

The buildings were enclosed by high dirt berms, according to the image reviewed by Reuters. Such structures are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating combustible materials in nearby structures.

Planet Labs imagery of Parchin showed that Israel destroyed three buildings and a warehouse used in solid fuel mixing for ballistic missiles.

Albright said he reviewed low-resolution commercial satellite imagery of Parchin that appeared to show that an Israeli strike damaged three buildings, including two in which solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.

He did not identify the commercial firm from which he obtained the images.

The buildings, he said, are located about 320 metres from a facility once involved in what the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and US intelligence say was a comprehensive nuclear weapons development program that Iran shuttered in 2003. Iran denies having such a program.

“Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers,” Eveleth said. “These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them.”

With a limited operation, he said, Israel might have struck a significant blow against Iran’s ability to mass-produce missiles and made it more difficult for any future Iranian missile attack to pierce Israel’s missile defences.

“The strikes appear to be highly accurate,” he said.

Iran has the Middle East’s largest missile arsenal and supplied missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, and to Yemen’s Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, according to US officials.

Tehran and Moscow deny that Russia has received Iranian missiles.

Risk of escalation

Iran insisted the strikes caused only “limited damage”, and Iranian state-run media downplayed them. Taken together, the moves suggested at least for now that both countries are trying to avoid a more serious escalation.

Still, the strikes risk pushing the arch-enemies closer to all-out war at a time of spiralling violence across the Middle East, where militant groups backed by Iran — including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — are already at war with Israel.

Following the airstrikes, Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying it “considers itself entitled and obligated to defend against foreign acts of aggression”. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had “no limits” in defending its interests.

But late on Saturday (Sunday AEDT), Iran’s military issued a carefully worded statement suggesting any ceasefire in Israel’s ground offensives in Gaza and Lebanon would trump any possible retaliatory strike.

Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency said four people were killed, all with the military air defence. Iran’s military said the strikes targeted military bases in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces. But the powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which oversees Iran’s vast ballistic missile arsenal, was silent, raising questions about whether anything had been hit at its bases.

US President Joe Biden told reporters Israel gave him a heads-up before the strikes and said it looked like “they didn’t hit anything but military targets”. His administration won assurances from Israel in mid-October that it would not hit nuclear facilities and oil installations. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran’s nuclear facilities were not impacted.

“I hope this is the end,” Biden said.

Israel’s first open attack on Iran

Iran hadn’t faced a sustained barrage of fire from a foreign enemy since its 1980s war with Iraq. Explosions could be heard in Tehran until sunrise.

On October 1, Iran launched at least 180 missiles into Israel in retaliation for devastating blows Israel landed against Hezbollah. They caused minimal damage and a few injuries. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran “made a big mistake”.

“If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond,” Israeli military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said.

Images released by Israel’s military showed members preparing to depart for the strikes in American-made F-15 and F-16 warplanes.

A photo provided by Israel’s army shows Israeli planes departing from an unknown location to attack Iran.Credit: AP

Iran’s mission to the UN accused the US of complicity in the attack, asserting that the US controls Iraqi airspace.

Israel’s attack did not take out highly visible or symbolic facilities that could prompt a significant response from Iran, said Yoel Guzansky, a researcher at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies who formerly worked for Israel’s National Security Council.

It also gives Israel room for escalation if needed, and targeting air defence systems weakens Iran’s capabilities to defend against future attacks, Guzansky said, adding that if there was Iranian retaliation, it should be limited.

“By targeting military sites and missile facilities over nuclear and energy infrastructure, Israel is also messaging that it seeks no further escalation for now,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based think tank Chatham House.

Life goes on as normal on Saturday in Tajrish traditional bazaar in northern Tehran.Credit: AP

After the strikes, the streets in Iran’s capital were calm, with schools and shops open. There were long lines at gas stations — a regular occurrence when military violence flares. But some residents seemed anxious and avoided conversations with an Associated Press reporter.

Mixed reactions at home and abroad

Israeli Opposition Leader Yair Lapid criticised the decision to avoid “strategic and economic targets”, saying on X that “we could and should have exacted a much heavier price from Iran”.

The US warned against further retaliation, and Britain and Germany said Iran should not respond. “All acts of escalation are condemnable and must stop,” the spokesman for the UN secretary-general said.

Saudi Arabia was one of a number of countries in the region condemning the strike, calling it a violation of Iran’s “sovereignty and a violation of international laws and norms”. Hezbollah and Hamas condemned Israel’s attack.

Regional tensions have been soaring

In Lebanon, dozens of people were killed and thousands wounded in September when pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah exploded in attacks attributed to Israel. A massive Israel airstrike the following week outside Beirut killed Hezbollah’s long-time leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

Israel also launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon. More than 1 million Lebanese people have been displaced, and the death toll has risen sharply as airstrikes hit in and around Beirut.

Hezbollah warned 25 communities in northern Israel to evacuate on Saturday, calling them “legitimate military targets” because Israel was attacking the militant group from there.

Enemies for decades

Israel and Iran have been bitter foes since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Israel considers Iran its greatest threat, citing its leaders’ calls for Israel’s destruction, their support for anti-Israel militant groups and the country’s nuclear program.

During their years-long shadow war, a suspected Israeli assassination campaign has killed top Iranian nuclear scientists, and Iranian nuclear installations have been hacked or sabotaged. Meanwhile, Iran has been blamed for attacks on shipping in the Middle East.

The shadow war has increasingly moved into the light since October 7, 2023, when Hamas and other militants attacked Israel. They killed 1200 people, mostly civilians, and took 250 hostages into Gaza. In response, Israel launched a devastating air and ground offensive against Hamas. About 100 people are still hostages, and about a third are believed to be dead.

More than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in largely devastated Gaza, according to local health officials who don’t differentiate between civilians and combatants, but say more than half have been women and children.

“Those who were not killed by the bombing are dying from starvation. This is life,” said Madallah Abu Zaid, a woman displaced from northern Gaza.

Reuters, AP

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