Trump and Putin will discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Here’s what’s on the table

Kyiv: A ceasefire in Russia’s bloody three-year war in Ukraine hinges on Moscow accepting the US proposal of a 30-day pause in fighting as a confidence-building measure for both sides to hammer out a longer-term peace plan.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin will look to delay such a temporary truce with conditions meant to divert the peace process and lengthen the war.

Ukrainian soldiers fire a mortar towards Russian army positions near Chasiv Yar, in the Donetsk region, on Sunday.Credit: Ukrainian 24th Mechanised Brigade/AP

Ukraine, which faced pressure to accept the ceasefire after US President Donald Trump blocked military aid and intelligence sharing, expects Trump will threaten more sanctions on Moscow to push Putin into accepting the terms.

Trump has said he would talk to Putinon Wednesday (AEDT) and that land and power plants were part of the conversation around bringing the war to a close, a process he described as “dividing up certain assets”.

But beyond the temporary ceasefire, both sides seem unwilling to make large concessions to the other, and both have red lines that they insist cannot be crossed.

In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday (AEDT), Trump said he was looking forward to the call. “Many elements of a Final Agreement have been agreed to, but much remains. Thousands of young soldiers, and others, are being killed. Each week brings 2500 soldier deaths, from both sides, and it must end NOW,” he said.

What are Russia’s demands?

When Putin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, he demanded it renounce joining NATO, sharply cut its army, and protect Russian language and culture to keep the country in Moscow’s orbit.

Now, he also demands that Kyiv withdraw its forces from the four regions Moscow illegally annexed in September 2022, but never fully occupied – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Russian officials also have said that any peace deal should involve releasing Russian assets that were frozen in the West and lifting other US and European Union sanctions. The Trump administration has proposed putting potential sanctions relief on the table.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Germany in 2017.Credit: AP

Along with that, Putin has repeatedly emphasised the need to “remove the root causes of the crisis” – a reference to the Kremlin’s demand to roll back a NATO military build-up near Russian borders that it describes as a major threat to its security. NATO currently has eight defensive battle groups in Europe – each made up of a number of allied countries’ troops and personnel – in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

He also argues that Zelensky, whose term expired last year, lacks legitimacy to sign a peace deal. Kyiv maintains that elections are impossible to hold amid a war. Trump has echoed Putin’s view, speaking of the need for Ukraine to hold an election.

Russian officials also have declared that Moscow won’t accept troops from any NATO members as peacekeepers to monitor a prospective truce.

What are Ukraine’s demands?

Facing setbacks along the 1000 kilometre long front, Ukraine has backed away from demanding that its state borders be returned to pre-2014 lines – because it does not have the military force capable of reaching that end.

Ukraine is asking for a peace deal cemented with security guarantees from international allies that will ensure that Russia can never invade again.

In lieu of NATO membership – a long-sought desire by Kyiv that appears impossible without US backing – what those guarantees might look like is taking shape in parallel talks led by France and Britain.

A “coalition of the willing” envisions European – and possibly Australian – boots on the ground and a strong military response if Russia were to launch a new offensive.

Zelensky has insisted the Ukrainian army be strengthened to withstand future Russian offensives, a costly endeavour that would require quick and consistent support from international allies.

A stockpile of weapons, capable of doing serious damage to Russian assets, is another demand. Kyiv also wants to bolster its domestic arms industry to lessen its reliance on allies, a reality that has set Ukrainian forces back throughout the war.

Ukraine has key demands from Russia as well. Kyiv refuses to cede more territory to Moscow, including those in partially occupied regions. Also, Ukraine is seeking the return of children illegally deported to Russia and thousands of civilians detained in Russian prisons.

Concessions and red lines

Both sides have red lines that are mutually exclusive, making negotiations extremely challenging. The US has said both must make concessions. The fate of one-fifth of Ukrainian land now under Russian control is likely to take centre stage.

For Moscow, the presence of NATO member states, as either peacekeepers or a reassurance force outside of the alliance framework, is a red line. But Moscow hasn’t mentioned any specific concessions.

For Ukraine, which is in a weaker position, the question of territory held by Russia that it does not have the military means to retake is central. For Kyiv, it is both a red line and a potential concession.

Zelensky has said his country will never recognise the territory as Russian. But Ukrainian officials concede that, while officially this always will be Kyiv’s position, the occupied territories are likely to remain under Russian control for some time.

“Partners know our red lines – that we do not recognise the occupied territories as the territories of the Russian Federation, and we do not recognise them,” Zelensky told journalists recently.

“This is my political will as president. And this is the political will of our people. This is a violation of international law and the Constitution of Ukraine.”

Ukraine also rejects restrictions on the size and capabilities of its armed forces as well as limits on its ability to join international alliances such as NATO and the European Union.

AP

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