Victim or criminal? Le Pen appeal could deliver Trump-style shock to France

For over a decade, Marine Le Pen has fought, scrapped, and clawed her way towards the Elysee Palace. After three failed attempts, the 2027 French presidential race was set to be her best chance – until a Paris court seemingly put an end to her dream.

The 56-year-old leader of the National Rally has each time built on her hard-right base, pulling in more votes from the fringes, and next time, opinion polls suggest, she might have finally broken through.

Marine Le Pen reacts at the National Assembly during a session on Tuesday.Credit: AP

Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling European Union funds – misusing €4.4 million ($7.5 million) meant for parliamentary duties to further the National Rally’s political activities. The court handed down a harsh verdict: an electronic tag and house arrest, a two-year suspended jail sentence, a €100,000 fine, and crucially, a five-year ban from holding public office, effectively barring her from contesting the next presidential election.

This wasn’t some minor infraction – it was a deliberate effort to skew France’s electoral process through a fake jobs scam involving parliamentary assistants. Le Pen may have avoided personal financial gain, but her role in the fraud was undeniable, the court found. The court’s decision to bar her from running for office immediately, even before her appeal, was an attempt to preserve the integrity of France’s elections.

Yet, while the decision is legally sound, the political ramifications are far-reaching. It’s not just a legal ruling; it’s a flashpoint in an ongoing battle for the soul of France – and Europe.

Marine Le Pen leaves the courtroom after a judge found her guilty in an embezzlement case.Credit: AP

Like a true populist, Le Pen is framing this as a battle of wills. Her storming out of court, a defiant expression of disbelief, speaks volumes about how much she feels the weight of this verdict. But what’s more worrying for France – and Europe – is the firestorm she’s about to unleash.

The Court of Appeal in Paris now says it could hear her case by mid-2026, meaning there would be enough time to enter the race should she be cleared of any wrongdoing. Three appeals have been filed so far in the case.

Her supporters, many of whom are already seeing themselves as the victims of a political conspiracy, have rallied to her side.

Even before the sentence was delivered, Hungary’s Viktor Orban posted “Je suis Marine” in a show of solidarity, and the Kremlin weighed in with its own condemnation, calling the verdict a “violation of democratic norms.” Donald Trump described the decision as a “very big deal”.

Le Pen has now become an international symbol for the far right, a martyr in the eyes of those who see the global political system as rigged against them.

French President Emmanuel Macron meets Le Pen at the Elysee Palace in 2022.Credit: AP

Her party has called on the French to take to the streets this weekend against the ruling, saying “the French should be outraged”.

Even some on the opposite side of the political spectrum, like former Greece finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, have described the situation as “nuts”.

“Lawfare is wrong whomever it targets,” he posted on social media. “France’s neofascists will only benefit from this, just as the MAGA lot did. A panicking illiberal establishment across the West is diving headlong into a totalitarian pit.”

For Le Pen, this conviction could be either the end or the beginning. It could mark the collapse of her personal political career – or, as we’ve seen with other populist figures, it could fuel a more dangerous and radical transformation of the National Rally into something even more extreme.

Her brand of ultra-nationalism, her anti-immigrant rhetoric, and her flirtations with “Frexit” – a British-style exit from the European Union – have made her a polarising figure. Her rise in French politics is a sign of the deep discontent that has taken root in France and beyond. The European project, in its current form, is under siege from nationalists like her, who want to roll back Brussels’ power, repatriate control over borders, and bring a harder edge to French politics.

National Rally president Jordan Bardella is seen by some as a future party leader.Credit: Bloomberg

If her legal troubles become the focal point of the hard right’s grievances, the very foundations of French democracy could be at risk.

If she cannot overturn on appeal, Le Pen will also have another fight on her hands—figuring out who will take her place as the National Rally’s presidential candidate. Enter Jordan Bardella, her 29-year-old protege and party chairman. He’s slick, charismatic, and can hold his own in front of the media. But he lacks Le Pen’s experience and – critically – her ability to galvanise the wider electorate.

For all the talk of family legacy, it’s her niece, Marion Maréchal, who could pose a serious challenge to Bardella. A fiery figure on the right, Maréchal has distanced herself from some of her aunt’s more moderate rhetoric. If the National Rally decides to go for a more extreme approach, the internal party conflict could be just as volatile as the broader political landscape.

By disqualifying Le Pen from the presidential race, the court has handed her an immense gift. Much like Donald Trump in the US, she can position herself as a victim of an elite-driven conspiracy. The message to her supporters will be clear: the establishment will stop at nothing to prevent her from seizing power.

French President Emmanuel Macron is already struggling with a minority government, and with Le Pen’s party holding the largest bloc in parliament, she is in a strong position to stir the pot, inflaming France’s already fragile political landscape.

A disillusioned electorate, hungry for change and increasingly disillusioned with the establishment, might find it harder to resist Le Pen’s siren call, even from the sidelines.

Le Pen may not be out of the race yet – but if she is, it won’t be the end of her influence. The shadow of her fight will loom large over the 2027 election.

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