Trump talks tough, but Putin is not listening

London: Russian President Vladimir Putin has calculated for months that he could intensify his war on Ukraine while telling US President Donald Trump he was serious about a ceasefire.

So Putin stepped up the missile and drone attacks on civilians across Ukraine in the knowledge that Trump could not force him to submit to a peace deal.

While Vladimir Putin has paid lip service to peace, Donald Trump is finding out that his actions speak louder than words.Credit: AP

But the spectacular outburst from the US president this week, when he lashed out at Putin for his “bullshit” about the war, raises the prospect of American action that exacts a cost on Russia.

That cost might even include severe US sanctions on Russian oil and other exports, if Trump chooses to back a draft law now before Congress. In theory, Putin is exposed.

“A combination of economic woes, further sanctions and regime fragility would be a significant test for Putin,” says Matthew Sussex, an associate professor at Griffith University who has written widely on Russia.

Sussex is wary, however, about concluding that Putin has overplayed his hand by angering Trump.

“While the signs are starting to point that way, I’d urge caution for the moment, mainly because the Trump White House can turn on a dime.”

Last week, Putin could watch in satisfaction while Pentagon officials froze weapons supplies to Ukraine. This week, he can see Trump promising more Patriot missiles to shield civilians from Russian bombs. Who knows what next week might bring?

For now, Putin has to weigh up the risk of tougher sanctions.

“I’m not happy with Putin. I can tell you that much right now,” Trump said in the White House on Tuesday. “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin. He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”

Trump talked about sending more weapons to Ukraine and said he was willing to back the Sanctioning Russia bill put to Congress by Republican senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat senator Richard Blumenthal.

This would not only stop more trade with Russia, but also impose a 500 per cent tariff on countries that purchase sanctioned Russian products. The logical conclusion is that India would pay an enormous price for buying Russian oil.

A Ukrainian man inspects damage to apartments after a Russian air strike in Kyiv this week.Credit: Bloomberg

Some of the American media, including outlets that favour Trump over the Democrats, suggest the president has woken up to the danger from Putin, a man he praised as a “genius” just after Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Trump has sided with Putin for years, and took this to a low point in February when he berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. That makes this week a curious sequel simply because he is mouthing off about the autocrat he so admires.

‘Do I think Putin is vulnerable because of Trump’s comments? In a word, no … the point is that Russia is winning the war’.

Professor Graeme Gill, University of Sydney

Putin, however, has not responded by cooling the conflict. He has started more fires instead. Russia pummelled Ukraine with 728 drones and 13 missiles on Tuesday night, the biggest onslaught in the war so far. It sent 400 drones and eight missiles on Wednesday night.

The attacks seek to force Ukraine into submission, but they also highlight Trump’s impotence. The president promised before the election he would end the war “on day one” – so every missile reminds the world he has failed.

Civilians pay the price. The United Nations estimates 232 people were killed and another 1343 wounded in June, the worst month in the war. The European Court of Human Rights reminded the world this week that Russian war crimes included summary executions, torture and the use of rape as a weapon of war.

And the Russians are making weapons at a phenomenal rate, helped by Iran and China, and outpacing the West. Despite some Ukrainian incursions, the Russians have also held their territory. They appear to believe they can break Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his country are fighting for survival three years into the war, with Russia grinding out gains.Credit: Getty Images

Putin has done this despite Western sanctions that try to starve his war machine of supplies. The sanctions have simply not stopped him. And he wants a ceasefire on terms that Ukraine cannot accept: not just the formal sacrifice of territory such as Crimea and the Donbas, but a permanent block on Ukraine joining NATO.

European leaders are responding with plans to offer Ukraine more finance and more weapons, while also spending more on their own defence. The European Union pledged another €1.8 billion ($3 billion) in loan guarantees and €580 million in grants for Ukraine on Thursday alone.

The defence spending is not just for Ukraine, however, because Europe’s essential forecast is that Putin will be a danger for as long as his regime lasts.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and Polish President Donald Tusk. Credit: Bloomberg

Putin has wielded power through violence from the moment he ordered the bombing of Grozny, Chechnya, in 1999, the decision that helped him rise to the presidency months afterwards. From Chechnya to Georgia and Transnistria, he has used proxies to foment conflict on Russian borders. He armed Syria and sent mercenaries into Africa. His rule has been marked by constant conflict.

That leads to a simple question: if the war in Ukraine ended, where would the next one start?

‘Russia is winning’

Graeme Gill, a professor emeritus at the University of Sydney and an expert on Soviet and Russian politics, says Putin is not as exposed as many want to believe.

“Do I think Putin is vulnerable because of Trump’s comments and the threat of sending Patriot missiles? In a word, no,” he says.

“The point is that Russia is winning the war. The Ukrainians are being forced back on the ground, are running out of troops, and the supply of Western weapons has become increasingly uncertain.”

Even if Trump sends Patriot missiles, Gill says, this merely reverts to the situation under the previous US president, Joe Biden. He thinks Ukraine will be defeated unless there is a peace deal: “Certainly Russia is feeling the strain, but there is no evidence that it is sufficient to make the war stop.”

This cold assessment is totally at odds with the message from European leaders. “We will never accept the theory that might is right,” French President Emmanuel Macron told the British parliament on Wednesday. “Europeans will never abandon Ukraine.”

Even so, those same leaders are acting as if Putin will be a bigger threat in years to come, rather than a wounded loser on the sunflower fields of Ukraine. Germany is buying more air defence systems and ammunition. Denmark is expanding conscription. Britain wants a squadron of F-35A bombers fitted with tactical nuclear weapons. France is developing its own long-range rocket artillery.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer even agreed with Macron on Thursday to co-ordinate their nuclear deterrence – the first time France and Britain had ever done so. That says European leaders believe they must prepare for the worst.

Trump has lost patience with Putin, but Putin is more patient than Trump. If there is one thing the Russian leader has shown over the years, it is that tough words do not stop him.

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