The ‘orange guy’ wants Greenland – but what do Greenlanders want?

Nuuk: The air inside the community hall in Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, was thick with warmth, a welcome contrast to the icy streets outside. As voters brushed snow from their coats, candidates from most of the island’s major parties sat down in the front of the room, ready for questions.

Every seat was filled, two dozen international journalists lined the walls and a man in a black-and-grey sweater stepped forward to the mic.

A woman walks on a street with posters for the upcoming elections in Nuuk, Greenland.Credit: AP

“Why is running a small business still so difficult?” he asked, his voice steady but impatient.

Cameras clicked, and so did the strap-on spikes that several journalists wore on their boots to keep from slipping on the ice.

“You need to take those off,” the moderator said. “They’re ruining the floor.”

With some grumbles, the spikes came off.

On Tuesday, Greenlanders will cast their votes in what has to be the most closely watched election this island has ever held, as President Donald Trump asserts again and again that he wants the United States to take over Greenland. He has refused to rule out force, and in his recent speech to Congress, he made a direct plea to the Greenlanders themselves, promising, “We will make you rich.” All the attention he has paid has drawn a wave of journalists, diplomats, social media influencers and investors to the Arctic.

A group of pro-Trump social media influencers called the Nelk Boys give out red MAGA hats and $US100 bills in Nuuk, Greenland in January.Credit: Ivor Prickett/The New York Times

Greenland’s leading political parties are presenting different visions for the future, and some are pushing for a new relationship with the US and quick independence from Denmark, which colonised the island hundreds of years ago and still controls some of its affairs.

But for many of Greenland’s 56,000 residents geopolitics is not a priority. At the recent town hall debate and in interviews with voters, residents expressed much more prosaic worries, often about living costs, unemployment, schools and healthcare.

“The election is shaped by what I would call a ‘cross-pressure’ – two competing narratives pulling in different directions,” said Rasmus Leander Nielsen, a political scientist at Ilisimatusarfik University in Nuuk. “The geopolitical debates might dominate headlines, but for the average voter, daily life matters more.”

Houses covered in snow are seen on the coast of a sea inlet of Nuuk, Greenland, on Friday.Credit: AP

Trump floated the idea of the US buying Greenland from Denmark during his first term. After Denmark said no, the idea seemed to die.

But now, Trump seems determined to “get” Greenland, as he puts it. His refusal to rule out force has sent jitters across Europe, where relations with his administration are already hitting new lows over a number of issues, including tariffs and Trump’s stunning pivot towards Russia.

European diplomats and American investors have been streaming into snowbound Nuuk, drawn by the island’s resources and its strategic location. Greenland’s position along Arctic sea lanes, which are opening up as the planet warms, have attracted the attention of the US, Russia, China and European powers. The island also possesses vast mineral deposits, although many are difficult to access.

A crow flies over election posters in Nuuk.Credit: AP

In contrast to those sweeping ambitions, people on the island say they’re worried about higher housing costs and economic uncertainty.

“This election is a test of where Greenlanders see their future – both in their everyday lives and on the global stage,” Leander Nielsen said. “The question is whether voters will prioritise immediate economic concerns or the bigger geopolitical picture. It’s a tough call.”

At the heart of the election is the question of control.

For more than 200 years, Greenland was ruled as a distant colony of Denmark, its Inuit population largely sidelined as Danish officials controlled its land and resources. Over time, pressure for self-rule grew, leading to greater autonomy and eventually a government of its own. Today, Greenland controls most domestic affairs, while Denmark still oversees defence, foreign policy and monetary matters.

But full independence remains a challenge. Denmark’s financial support covers more than half of the island’s budget, making economic stability a key hurdle to sovereignty.

A plane carrying Donald Trump Jr lands in Nuuk, Greenland, in January.Credit: AP

This election will decide the make-up of the 31-seat Inatsisartut, or parliament. Nearly all major parties agree that Greenland should become independent – it’s just a question of when and how. They also differ on what their ultimate relationship should be with the US and Denmark.

No major politicians have expressed a desire to become an American state, and polls show that 85 per cent of Greenlanders don’t want that. But some candidates, including Kuno Fencker, a member of the Naleraq party, believe the territory should establish close ties with the US.

He says Washington could best protect Greenland and such an alliance would deliver more investment and development. Fencker is part of a small pro-Trump camp in Greenland and went to Washington for his inauguration. He says the first step is breaking off from Denmark.

“It’s about us gaining full authority over our land,” he said. “From there, we will cooperate with international organisations and other countries.”

The US has maintained a military presence on Greenland since World War II, with a small missile defence base at the top of the island.

“The US is here to stay,” Fencker said. “They will always be part of the negotiating equation.”

Other parties, including the Demokraatit, are more cautious about sovereignty and relations with Washington.

“We must be smart and not push for independence at the expense of our people,” said Bo Martinsen, a Demokraatit candidate. “Right now, immediate independence is not feasible.”

Trump’s attention has intensified the conversation about independence and what Greenland should do if it breaks off from Denmark.

“The most important thing for me in this election is that there’s so much talk about independence, but I really want to know: How?” said Runa Sværd, a municipal planning chief in Nuuk. “I need a road map.”

On an island where harsh weather can shut down entire towns and 80 per cent of the land mass is covered by a glacier ice cap, ensuring a smooth election isn’t so simple.

Ballots are flown by helicopter, ferried by boats through Arctic waters and sped to remote settlements by snowmobile. Once cast, each vote is counted by hand, with results relayed by email or, in the most isolated regions, by satellite phone. The results are expected to be announced late on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT), weather permitting.

“If a storm comes in and delays transport, we have to improvise,” said Klaus Georg Hansen, a former election official.

But storms aren’t the only threat. Danish intelligence officials have warned of foreign interference, with fake social media profiles posing as Greenlandic politicians and statements twisted to sow division.

With each passing day, the election buzz grows louder in Nuuk. As travellers drive away from the new international airport, two massive banners – one for Naleraq and the other for Inuit Ataqatigiit, the governing party – hang on opposite sides of a rock-cut mountainside.

Further along, campaign posters sway from lampposts. On Thursday, as John Nathansen, a 66-year-old pensioner, made his way to a supermarket, the election was on his mind.

“The conditions we live under don’t get enough attention. Instead, it’s all about that orange guy – Trump,” he said. “In my view, independence should be at the back of the line.”

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.