‘None have prepared for it’: Trump forces Europe to rethink its own nuclear ‘umbrella’

Emmanuel Macron beamed into living rooms across France last week, warning his nation that Europe must be ready for the United States to not “remain by our side” in the Ukraine-Russia war.

It was another astonishing development in a truly consequential past month, as European leaders found themselves plunged into a hostile new era of America moving away from the wider Western alliance, a greater threat coming from Russia, and an increasingly uncertain outlook for Ukraine.

In a live broadcast on his official social media channels and carried by news channels on Wednesday, the French president stressed the need for Europe to continue assisting Ukraine and to strengthen its own defence, saying France – the only nuclear power in the European Union – could extend its nuclear deterrent to cover other EU nations.

“The United States, our ally, has changed its position on this war, is less supportive of Ukraine and is casting doubt on what will happen next,” Macron said, adding: “I want to believe that the United States will remain by our side, but we need to be ready if that were not the case.”

The suggestion France could extend its nuclear umbrella over Europe triggered an angry response from Russia, where Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov labelled it “a threat” and Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by invoking Napoleon’s failed invasion of Russia in 1812.

“There are still people who want to return to the times of Napoleon, forgetting how it ended,” Putin said, noting also he had no intention of pulling back from land Russia has taken in Ukraine.

The plan could involve French weapons being stationed in other European countries, following a suggestion from Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, who stated Berlin might seek protection under France and Britain’s nuclear umbrella if the US withdrew from NATO.

France would retain control over any decision to use its nuclear deterrent.

With the US and Russia holding roughly 88 per cent of the world’s nuclear arsenal, France’s “force de dissuasion” and the UK’s Trident program stand as key elements of European nuclear defence, with both nations possessing sea and air-based launch systems.

Journalists listen to the explosive meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office on February 28.Credit: AP

Hopes for a looming peace deal between Ukraine and Russia were seemingly dashed last week when US President Donald Trump posted a sharp message attacking Volodymyr Zelensky, after his chaotic meeting with the Ukrainian leader in the Oval Office a few days earlier.

“America will not put up with it for much longer,” Trump declared, followed by the news that the US had suspended military and intelligence aid to Ukraine.

Ukrainian firefighters work in Kharkiv following a Russian rocket attack on Friday. Russia has unleashed a furious bombardment at critical Ukrainian infrastructure, after the US decided to withhold intelligence assistance. Credit: AP

While the language from Trump and Zelensky has since softened, the suspension of aid and military assistance has triggered warnings that Ukrainian forces could be forced to retreat from the front lines within months.

Sir Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London, says European states have for years discussed a possible moment when they will depend far less, or even not at all, on America for their security.

“Some have viewed this prospect with enthusiasm; others with apprehension. None have prepared for it,” he says. “Now circumstances have conspired to require that they address the challenges posed right away.”

What will the immediate impact of the US aid freeze be?

The pause includes all US equipment not currently in Ukraine, including weapons in transit and at bases in Poland – rockets, anti-tank weapons and armoured vehicles, among other military assistance.

About 20 per cent of the military hardware in Ukraine comes from the US, according to Western officials. Some 25 per cent comes from Europe, including the UK, and from other nations. About 55 per cent is funded by Ukraine and comes from Ukrainian production.

Cadets undergo training with American Colt M16A4 assault rifles at the Taras Shevchenko Military Institute in Kyiv region, Ukraine.Credit: Bloomberg

Kyiv’s stockpiles are reasonably healthy for the next few months, courtesy of the final few months of Joe Biden’s US presidency when he stepped up weapons deliveries. However, the ongoing freeze on aid will have an immediate impact, with more than $US1 billion ($1.5 billion) worth of arms and ammunition now stuck at the Polish border.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, halting US military and financial support risks “tipping the balance of the war” in Russia’s favour.

The institute says the frontline in Ukraine does not risk imminent collapse, but the effects of the US aid pause will become more acute over time, especially as Russia continues occupying about 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory, primarily in the south and east.

Ukrainian emergency personnel work at the scene of a Russian Iskander ballistic missile attack on a residential building in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv, Ukraine.Credit: Getty Images

Who could make up the ‘coalition of the willing’?

British officials say 20 countries could join the effort led by the UK and France to form a “robust” 30,000-member peacekeeping force for Ukraine.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has suggested he would be willing to send troops, as have the leaders of New Zealand, Ireland, Belgium and Turkey. Canada, Sweden and Denmark may also join.

But Poland and Italy have ruled out sending troops and Germany, Spain and the Baltic states are also unlikely to commit.

Volodymyr Zelensky shakes hands with Bart De Wever, Belgium’s prime minister, at a special European Council meeting in Brussels, Belgium, on Thursday.Credit: Bloomberg

Leaders believe the Anglo-French-led force, with accompanying air support, would be able to consolidate the peace and deter Russia from future attacks against Ukraine along the 1000-kilometre front.

But Dr Neil Melvin, director of international security at the Royal United Services Institute, says that by making such a security commitment, Europe would have to be prepared to escalate to a full-scale war with Russia in Ukraine, and possibly on a wider front, if its peacekeeping forces come under attack.

“Despite the talk of peace, Russia will continue to view Ukraine as a target for its expansionist policies and will rebuild its military forces following any agreement,” he says.

“European forces in Ukraine would, therefore, be operating in a hostile and fragile environment with a high risk of becoming involved in combat with Russia at some point.”

A Ukrainian POW group gathers outside the US embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Thursday. Mothers and wives of missing Ukrainian soldiers are demanding that any US-brokered peace deal includes a prisoner exchange.Credit: Getty Images

How could it work?

France has suggested a two-stage ceasefire starting with a month-long truce by air, sea and on critical infrastructure.

Both British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Macron are hesitant to send soldiers without a guarantee from the US that they would be protected from Russian attacks, namely through the provision of fighter jets. But Trump is yet to offer security guarantees, reportedly telling Starmer that British forces could “take care of themselves”.

The best-case scenario

If Zelensky succeeds in getting Trump to provide security guarantees in exchange for Ukraine’s critical minerals, the US could send fighter jets to Poland and Romania to shield Europe’s peacekeeping coalition, according to several military and defence analysts.

Western officials will have to ensure compliance with the ceasefire, Russia could be offered relief from sanctions and other incentives – like the reconnection of Russian gas to Europe, or a summit with Trump and Putin that would herald the Russian president’s return to the world stage.

“Russia respects and fears American airpower in a way it doesn’t fear the British and French armies,” John Foreman, Britain’s former defence attaché to Moscow, told The Times this week.

The alternative option

Without US air support, it’s unlikely that Britain and France would send troops, especially as Trump has shown little interest in providing a military backstop amid an obsessive fear of a third world war.

It would fall on Europe to keep Ukraine armed, to compensate for the withdrawal of military aid and intelligence. Europe could seize Russian assets in European banks to help fund Ukraine’s defence efforts, though legal challenges and investor concerns complicate this option.

A proposal for a European-led air force of 120 fighter jets has also emerged, aimed at safeguarding Ukrainian skies, without necessarily escalating the conflict with Moscow.

A Ukrainian Air Force’s F-16 fighter jet flies in an undisclosed location in Ukraine. Western countries donated the planes to help the country’s fleet of Soviet-era jets to counter Russia’s invasion.Credit: AP

Named SkyShield, the initiative would operate independently of NATO, providing air protection for key Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Its backers suggest it could complement Zelensky’s recent call for a “truce in the sky”.

The zone would protect critical sites, including Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and cities such as Odesa and Lviv, but would not extend to the frontlines or eastern Ukraine. A newly released paper argues that the air shield could deliver a more significant military, political, and socioeconomic impact than 10,000 European ground troops.

Can Europe fill the void?

Some analysts predicted that a US halt in military aid to Ukraine would lead European nations to follow suit. However, after Zelensky’s tense meeting with Trump, European leaders firmly rallied behind Ukraine.

Growing domestic and European defence production means that Ukraine has become less dependent on US aid than in previous months and years.

While the US has been the largest contributor of military aid, European countries have been the primary source of overall support, with contributions totalling $US132 billion since 2022, according to the Kiel Institute. By comparison, the US has donated $US114 billion, with additional contributions from countries such as Japan and Canada.

Other NATO countries, including Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherlands, have pledged to give Ukraine dozens more planes, while European states have also sent more than 200 German-made Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks.

Ukrainian commanders have expressed particular gratitude for the Storm Shadow missiles supplied by Britain and France, which have been instrumental in striking deep inside Russia.

“These missiles may not hit as hard as the American versions, but they offer pinpoint accuracy and are better at evading countermeasures,” a Ukrainian military intelligence officer told London’s The Telegraph.

Additionally, Norway has provided vital air defence systems, further strengthening Ukraine’s military capabilities.

But some military supplies can only come from the US, or with US approval. These include the Patriot air defence systems and some long-range missiles.

The suspension of US military aid will force Ukraine to ration its remaining munitions and in some places retreat over the next few months. That would have consequences not only for frontline troops but for Ukrainian civilians as well.

In response to mounting geopolitical tensions, the European Union has ramped up its defence spending with an €800 billion ($1.37 trillion) rearmament program unveiled by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. This includes €150 billion in loans for new military hardware like air defence systems and drones.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen before crisis talks in Brussels, Belgium, on Thursday.Credit: Bloomberg

Ahead of crisis talks in Brussels on Thursday, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Europe must “spend, spend, spend on defence and deterrence”.

“That is the most important message and at the same time, of course, continue to support Ukraine because we want peace in Europe,” she said.

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