By Rob Harris
London: Britain will scrutinise Australia’s nuclear submarines deal with the UK and the United States, as concerns are raised on the other side of the Atlantic about the continued reliability of the US as a security partner.
The UK House of Commons Defence Committee quietly announced a parliamentary inquiry last week into the contentious AUKUS defence pact, signed in 2021, which will cost Australian taxpayers $368 billion over the next 30 years. The inquiry – the first of its kind – will evaluate whether the program remains on track and consider the impact of global geopolitical shifts since the deal was signed.
Australia is to pay $368 billion for nuclear submarines under the defence pact.Credit: AP
With none of the original signatories – former leaders Boris Johnson, Joe Biden and Scott Morrison – still in office, the inquiry also reflects the changing dynamics in global alliances. Notably, the US recently distanced itself from its European NATO allies, complicating the context of the pact.
At a US Senate hearing on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST), Democrat senator Mark Warner said President Donald Trump’s decision last week to impose tariffs on US allies, including on Australia and the United Kingdom, “undermines our national security and frankly makes us not a good partner”.
“We’re supposed to be doing this major deal around jointly building submarines,” Warner said after the hearing. “I think [Australia] and all of our allies are rethinking whether we can be counted on as a partner.”
In Britain, the Defence Committee chairman, Labour MP Tan Dhesi, said the AUKUS program was a vital partnership for the UK and two of its long-standing allies, bringing them even closer together in their defence co-operation.
Then-British PM Boris Johnson, Australia’s former PM Scott Morrison, and former US president Joe Biden announce the AUKUS pact in 2021.Credit: AAP
Under the first of the deal’s two pillars, Australia will acquire three nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines from the US and build five new nuclear-powered attack submarines named SSN-AUKUS. The first of those will arrive in the late 2030s, and Australia’s first domestically built sub in the early 2040s.
“AUKUS has been underway for over three years now,” Dhesi said. “The inquiry will examine the progress made against each of the two pillars, and ask how any challenges could be addressed.”
Dhesi said he hoped to examine any potential expansion of pillar II of the program, which includes cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum capabilities, hypersonics and cyber warfare.
While AUKUS aims to strengthen defence ties in the Indo-Pacific, former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has voiced concerns, questioning whether Australia would ever receive a US nuclear-powered submarine. The US faces challenges in its own naval capabilities, with senior Pentagon officials also questioning the feasibility of the submarine deal, given current shipbuilding limitations.
Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy in East Asia at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, said AUKUS could survive the Trump administration.
“In fact, it could thrive despite the current disruptions,” he said.
He said the economic benefits of the pact needed to be clearly stated with data and examples, and said AUKUS advocates also needed to ensure the strategic value in deterrence, from the North Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific, was more deeply articulated.
“The core challenges lie in the ability to pursue today’s investments in workforce levels, such as to deliver pillar I by the early 2040s,” he said, adding that it would be crucial for the SSN-AUKUS subs to be completed on time.
London-based foreign policy analyst Sophia Gaston, a senior fellow at the Australia Strategic Policy Institute, said the secret origins of AUKUS had “proven an impediment to building a wider scope of engagement around the pact”.
“This inquiry will bring new voices and energy into the conversation ... but also confront the rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape in which AUKUS is seeking to make its mark,” she said.
Sir Stephen Lovegrove, who led a soon-to-be-released review of the UK’s progress on AUKUS – identifying barriers to success and setting out recommendations on how to unlock further areas of opportunity – said the strategic relevance of the pact had only increased since it was struck.
Lovegrove, who was appointed as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s special representative on AUKUS this week, said the partnership would develop and deliver cutting-edge capabilities and provide sustained employment for thousands of people across the UK, US and Australia.
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