A perilous path to the 2026 World Cup just got trickier for the Socceroos

Somehow, the Socceroos’ World Cup destiny remains in their own hands.

Good luck trying to make sense of that after Wednesday morning’s dramatic 2-2 draw with Bahrain; the second half alone swung from a blissful dream scenario to a living, breathing nightmare, and then back to an excruciatingly familiar purgatory.

Where to next for the Socceroos?Credit: Aleksandar Jason/Football Australia

All in the space of 30 minutes.

If you didn’t watch it, you missed out on entertainment and pain in equal measure.

The fun started early, with Kusini Yengi opening the scoring after just 38 seconds, latching onto an under-hit back pass from Bahrain defender Sayed Baqer to his goalkeeper, who the Portsmouth striker rounded before tapping the ball into an empty net.

The hosts were shell-shocked, and they couldn’t get a shot of their own on target during the entire first half. Australia looked to be in cruise control, and on course for revenge against the team that beat them in the first match of this qualification period, severely denting their 2026 World Cup hopes.

But Bahrain came out hot in the second half, and moments after Yengi screwed a chance to make it 2-0 at one end, an unfortunate deflection off Cameron Burgess’ admittedly heavy touch near the halfway line set up the equaliser. The ball fell beautifully for substitute Mahdi Abduljabbar, who looked up, spotted Maty Ryan off his line (not that he was out of position - that’s just how un-dangerous the situation was before the turnover) and lobbed him from 40 metres out. A freak goal.

Barely a minute later, Abduljabbar scored again to put Bahrain 2-1 up, and again, it was a stroke of luck. Hayden Matthews, the 20-year-old Sydney FC defender who was handed a surprise start by Tony Popovic, tried to head away a cross,but it deflected off his head and onto the right post. It bounced right into Abduljabbar’s path, and with Ryan exposed, he converted. Australia’s failure to kill off the game earlier had reared up and bit them.

There was one more twist to come: the Socceroos’ mad scramble for a second goal came off in the sixth of 10 additional minutes. Yengi was there to deliver it, thumping the ball in from close range after Brandon Borrello met Aiden O’Neill’s hopeful cross and caused some havoc at the back post.

Once again, they were left to rue their lack of killer instinct in attack. In defence, they had been hitherto flawless under new coach Tony Popovic, but had their two worst moments at the back during his reign and paid a heavy price.

Popovic: ‘An important point’

“Crazy game,” said Popovic in his post-match press conference.

Tony Popovic on the sideline in Riffa.Credit: Getty Images

“We showed a lot of character to come back and get an important point. Apart from Japan, everyone else is taking points off each other. I think it’s the story of the group … but we find ourselves in second place, a point in front of the group.

“We’ve got to make sure that March is a very good window for us.”

Is Yengi the striker the Socceroos have been looking for?

Australia has been searching for a regular goalscorer since Tim Cahill’s retirement in 2018. His finishing nous helped get his nation out of trouble on countless occasions - but it’s the hardest part of the sport to master, and even some of the world’s biggest football nations are similarly struggling to find a consistent No.9 to lead their attack.

Yengi, the former Adelaide United and Western Sydney Wanderers forward, is determined to be the guy for the Socceroos - and he’s certainly not short on confidence. “It will be me,” he told this masthead earlier this year. “I think it will be me. I’ve got the physicality, I’ve got the speed, I’ve got the skill, I’ve got the technique.”

Kusini Yengi walks off at full-time.Credit: Getty Images

Yengi moved from the Wanderers to Portsmouth, then in England’s League One, in the middle of last year. He had a terrific first season, scoring 13 goals in all competitions as they were promoted to the Championship - but he’s yet to score for his club this season, and his availability for the Socceroos has been affected of late by suspension and injury.

The 25-year-old was preferred over the oft-maligned Mitchell Duke by Tony Popovic in Riffa - and while he did score a brace in his first start under the new coach, he probably should have had a hat-trick, and maybe more. According to FotMob, he missed two “big chances” against Bahrain, while he also hit the woodwork once - if one of those goes in, it’s a completely different contest.

“It was good,” Popovic said of Yengi’s display. “He’s there to score goals so getting a couple of goals ... [but] I’d have liked him to score the chance at 1-0 when the ball was cut back, because that would have been game over.”

Kusini Yengi of Australia scores the opener.Credit: Getty Images

Yengi probably has the best shot at becoming Australia’s main man up front - he’s the right age, the right build, and clearly has a bit of X-factor about him - but he needs to sharpen up his game a little more and find greater consistency.

Like all players, between now and March, when the Socceroos next return to action, Yengi has an opportunity to bed down the foundations of his career and cement his spot in the starting XI.

His country needs him to take it.

Second spot in Group C is still up for grabs

When FIFA expanded the World Cup to 48 teams (from 32) and gave Asia eight direct qualification slots (plus a play-off berth), it looked as if the Socceroos would never struggle to reach the tournament again; this correspondent indeed two years ago wrote that results “should come pretty easily” in this cycle and that Australia “will probably never miss another” World Cup.

What that view didn’t account for was that greater opportunity to reach the game’s pinnacle event would unlock greater performances from nations who rarely venture there - and so it has proved, particularly in Group C, one of the most bonkers World Cup qualifying groups in recent memory.

Japan are streets ahead, but after that, it’s a crap shoot. And if it weren’t for Saudi Arabia’s stumbles - they were shocked 2-0 away to Indonesia on Tuesday night in Jakarta in a monumental upset - then the Socceroos’ hopes of direct qualification would already be dead.

GROUP C: AS IT STANDS

• 1st: Japan, P6 W5 D1 L0, 16 pts, GD +20
• 2nd: Australia, P6 W1 D4 L1, 7 pts, GD +1
• 3rd: Indonesia, P6 W1 D3 L2, 6 pts, GD -3
• 4th: Saudi Arabia, P6 W1 D3 L2, 6 pts, GD -3
• 5th: Bahrain, P6 W1 D3 L2, 6 pts, GD -5
• 6th: China, P6 W2 D0 L4, 6 pts, GD -10

With four games to go, only one point separates Australia (seven points) from the bottom place - Japan is clear on top with 16 points, but Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and China are all tied on six points apiece. Every team still has a realistic chance of finishing second in the group and qualifying directly. The teams that finish third and fourth will go into Asia’s fourth qualifying round, which will take place in October 2025: two groups of three teams will form, each will play two games in that window, and the top-ranked sides will progress to the World Cup. The second-placed sides will then face off against one another, and then the winner of that will go to the intercontinental play-offs.

What’s next for the Socceroos

Popovic’s fourth match in charge was also the team’s final fixture of 2024. They don’t play again until March 20 when they are at home to Indonesia. The location for that match hasn’t yet been confirmed by Football Australia but it’s likely to be in either Sydney or Perth.

Five days after that game, they’ll play in China.

Six points are an absolute must from those two outings because, after that, the Socceroos finish up the qualification round with a daunting June window against Japan (home) and Saudi Arabia (away). The aim is to keep the pressure for results from those encounters as low as possible. It won’t be easy, of course; Indonesia snagged a 0-0 draw with Australia in September, in what proved to be Graham Arnold’s final match as coach, and they just upset the Saudis, who Australia failed to score against last week in Melbourne.

It’s worth keeping in mind that all teams bar China still have to face the Samurai Blue one more time - and the Saudis play them in Japan in March. Other results may fall in Australia’s favour and keep them alive even if they don’t win their next two games, but equally, good teams shouldn’t have to rely on other results and can forge their own path.