The two vital decisions that could make or break Australian rugby this Christmas

The weeks before Christmas are traditionally a period where meaningful work is dialled down and hangovers are dialled up.

But Rugby Australia currently finds itself sweating on two big pieces of business deep into the festive season, the outcomes of which are set to have a huge bearing on the success of the code in Australia in the second half of the decade.

In no particular order, the two outstanding agenda items – both of which may be concluded in the next fortnight –are Joe Schmidt’s long-term future as Wallabies coach, and a deal for the broadcast rights of Australian rugby for 2026-2030.

Jumping Joe?

Schmidt is back in New Zealand after a post-spring tour stay in Dublin, and weighing up whether to extend his contract beyond the British and Irish Lions series in July next year.

After a year of promising growth by the Wallabies that blossomed during November, RA has made no secret of its desire to extend Schmidt’s tenure through to the 2027 World Cup in Australia.

Joe Schmidt has been outstanding for the Wallabies this year.Credit: Getty

Schmidt told this masthead he would decide in December after speaking with his family. Schmidt’s son, Luke, has special needs and coaching an international team – even one as close as Australia – requires the 59-year-old to spend a lot of time away from home.

“It is just trying to be as stable as possible,” Schmidt said. “I think since I started [coaching in July], I have had six, eight and ten days in New Zealand in three different spells. So it is just probably getting that somehow balanced.”

Rugby Australia has made it known they are prepared to be “creative” in Schmidt’s contract, and would be happy for him to spend time at home. But Schmidt is also notorious for his intensive work ethic, meaning achieving that balance will be easier said than done.

Schmidt is also an expert in giving nothing away. Most have interpreted the absence of any pointers towards his decision as a signal he will depart, as opposed to Schmidt respectfully keeping his thoughts out of the media until he has discussed the situation with his wife and family.

The appeal of taking the fast-improving Wallabies through to the 2027 World Cup would undoubtedly hold appeal for Schmidt. For all the new ground he broke with Ireland, it would burn Schmidt that he didn’t make it past the quarters at the 2015 and 2019 tournaments.

Rugby Australia high-performance boss Peter Horne is a close colleague of Schmidt’s, having previously worked with him at World Rugby, and, once Schmidt makes a call, the likely course of action is that Horne will travel to New Zealand to talk it through. Horne was still in Sydney on Tuesday.

RA boss Phil Waugh said last week “contingency plans” were being discussed in the event Schmidt decided against extending his contract, and pointed to four strong candidates to replace him in Super Rugby: Queensland’s Les Kiss, the Brumbies’ Stephen Larkham, Simon Cron at the Western Force and Dan McKellar at the Waratahs.

It would likely be a race in two between Kiss and Larkham, and while both are respected and well-liked, neither have been an international head coach before.

Joe Schmidt at Wallabies training in Dublin.Credit: Sportsfile via Getty Images

So Schmidt’s decision looms as a decisive factor in the Wallabies’ attempts to become a genuine contender in 2027, and the resulting benefits that would flow from a run deep into the tournament – commercially and participation-wise. RA plans to use the windfalls of the 2027 World Cup as a vehicle to bank a future fund for the game.

Broadcast bucks

Rugby Australia’s broadcast deal with Nine Entertainment/Stan expires at the end of 2025, and the parties are currently in talks about extending for another five-year period, between 2026 and 2030.

RA and Nine (the publisher of this masthead)/Stan are in an “Exclusive Negotiating Period” (ENP) through to December 31. From January 1, Rugby Australia is free to talk to other potential broadcaster partners, but a deal could be struck before the end of the year.

Wallaby Max Jorgensen in Australia’s recent win over England.Credit: Getty Images

RA chairman Daniel Herbert told this masthead earlier this month there is appeal to the “certainty” of extending with Nine/Stan, but only if “the price is right”. The current deal is worth $30m a year.

“Nine have been a great partner and we have a great relationship, but they got us a number of years ago at the lowest ebb,” Herbert said.

Whether there are other suitors for Rugby Australia’s broadcast offerings – primarily Test and Super Rugby matches – is the multimillion-dollar question. Reports surfaced this month that giant sports streaming company DAZN, backed by British-Ukrainian billionaire Len Blavatnik, is in talks with News Corp about buying Foxtel.

Whether that would translate to competitive tension for RA remains to be seen, but the governing body has made no secret of the need to secure an increase in broadcast revenue for the new five-year cycle.

Rugby Australia had paused contract talks with leading players, including Fraser McReight and Len Ikitau, in the last quarter of this year, waiting to get a picture of its likely broadcast revenue.

And after unveiling a new strategy document last week for Australian rugby through to 2029, Waugh conceded the game did not currently have the money to fund all the elements of the plan.

While a domestic deal will represent a majority of broadcast revenue, there are other global deals expected to bring in additional monies for RA. The Nations Cup competition, which will see the top 12 ranked nations competing for points in each July and November Test window before a weekend of finals, is set to begin in 2026.

Jointly run by Sanzaar and the Six Nations, the aggregation of global broadcast rights for the July and November Tests is expected to see an uplift in broadcast value, which will be shared by the competing nations. Revenue from the finals weekend, set for London in 2026 and likely Qatar in 2028, would also be shared.

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