The fiercest rugby battle this week will take place in a five-star Dublin hotel

Cardiff: The lobby of the swanky Marker Hotel in Dublin will be a busy place this week, with conversations and coffees in the quieter corners. Their outcome could help decide whether an Australian will end the week as the most powerful man in global rugby, or if a revolutionary Frenchman will sweep to power.

The lobbying is taking place on the sidelines of World Rugby meetings, ahead of elections for a new chair of World Rugby on Friday morning (AEDT). Former Wallaby flanker Brett Robinson is one of three candidates for the vacancy, along Italian Andrea Rinaldo and Frenchman Abdel Benazzi.

Robinson, who has been Australia’s representative at World Rugby for a decade, emerged as the early favourite after announcing his intention to run in August. When his main rival, Scotland’s John Jeffrey, withdrew from the race a few weeks later, a new challenger emerged out of France in the imposing shape of Benazzi, a Moroccan-born former Test forward who spent time playing for Warringah in the 1990s.

The election comes at what many view as a critical moment for global rugby. With Rinaldo expected to go out after the first round of voting, the choice of World Rugby members would then be Benazzi or Robinson.

Robinson is pitching himself as an experienced but progressive candidate, with a focus on modernising rugby for changing audiences, being fan-driven and, with extensive business acumen, tackling systemic financial issues that emerged in Australia years ago but are now plaguing the game globally.

Former Wallaby flanker Brett Robinson, who is running to become the next chair of World Rugby.

Benazzi’s campaign is based more on turning over the whole apple cart of World Rugby, which he argues is a closed shop of “conservative, anglo” voices that needs opening up to the rest of the world. He has promised to address the “unfair” World Rugby voting system, which gives Six Nations and Rugby Championship nations 30 of the 52 member votes.

In a choice between evolution and revolution, how it will turn out in Dublin is anyone’s guess.

But already the battle for the chair has shaken up world rugby’s traditional power blocs. Historically the southern and northern hemisphere nations have stuck together and backed their own candidates, but this time the old loyalties are split.

Robinson’s nomination was seconded by England’s RFU, and along with New Zealand Rugby, the English have been lobbying hard for the Australian.

Abdel Benazzi during his playing days in 1997.Credit: Reuters

Australia’s SANZAAR partner South Africa seconded Benazzi’s nomination and Argentina are also believed to be supporting Benazzi, with the charismatic Gus Pichot having run - and lost - a similar campaign in 2020.

Along with John Eales, Pichot is running for a seat on the World Rugby executive board, which will also be voted in on Friday.

The fracturing of the north-south orthodoxy reflects an overwhelming mood for change in rugby’s leadership, given the many existential crises that face the sport, particularly financial. Clubs in several countries have gone broke in recent years.

Robinson, who is currently CEO of RetireAustralia, has been a big driver behind recent law changes and trials to speed up the game, has backed the push into the USA - where the 2031 and 2034 World Cups will be held - and wants to invest into money into the women’s game and player welfare.

Benazzi says the old model of World Rugby is broken, and says aspirant nations like Spain, Georgia and Portugal must get more exposure to major Test nations. But often the same interviews, Benazzi says no new teams will be added to the Six Nations.

Rugby Australia are keen for Robinson to prevail, given they’re in a joint venture with World Rugby to deliver the 2027 and 2029 Rugby World Cups and want stability. An influential figure at the top, that understands the Australia’s specific challenges, wouldn’t hurt either.

And while Rugby Australia has often been viewed warily by the north in the past for its pleas to make rugby more fan-friendly, that is now accepted wisdom in most parts of the world. As Robinson told this masthead in August, Australia has proven to be a canary in the coalmine when it comes to world rugby’s fight to say financially sustainable and relevant to younger generations.

All three candidates have already given formal presentations to voters, and they get a final five-minute pitch ahead of the vote on Friday morning.

Needing 27 votes to win, the outcome could be decided by a swing nation or two. It is a secret ballot, so as Malcolm Turnbull said about leadership spills in the ABC TV show Nemesis, the only vote you can be sure about is the person who looks you in the eye and says they’re not voting for you.

And with a famous history of backflips and betrayals in World Rugby elections, too, those counting numbers in the lobby will write everything down in pencil.

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