Super Rugby struggles turn blowtorch on new-look Wallabies

The demise of the Melbourne Rebels would be extraordinary if it wasn’t so predictable.

This is a global tale, not just an Australian one, and although Rugby Australia has not been blameless along the way, many national unions are currently like small boats bobbing along rather helplessly in rough seas.

Phil Waugh in Melbourne after informing the Rebels players of the decision to not support a rescue bid.Credit: Justin McManus

The overarching problem is a simple one: Professional rugby beneath the Test level is in difficulty, and unless you happen to be funded by French billionaires or behemoth Japanese corporations, you’re looking over the horizon for the next potential crisis.

The Super Rugby model is under strain because it’s not Test rugby, much in the way the English watched three clubs go under last year and the most recent annual reports from the 10 survivors revealed cumulative losses of about $50 million for 2022-2023.

Every time you think a rugby competition is in trouble, someone else pops up and says, “hold my beer”.

The Welsh are still talking about cutting one of their four professional teams, and the Scots might only be spared the same fare if they sufficiently cut their budgets to allow them to wobble along until everyone gets their hands on the Qatari money for the Nations Championship.

England’s Fraser Dingwall celebrates after scoring against Wales in the 2024 Six Nations.Credit: AP

Like it or not, the money is all at the Test level, which is where the Wallabies are about to enter the chat at the critical point.

The three Tests in July – two against Wales and one against Georgia – are now so important for brightening the national mood that they are in the must-win category.

The two Tests against Wales, in particular, are enormously important for both countries as the Welsh search for their own crumbs of comfort after a horrible Six Nations and a woeful United Rugby Championship in which their highest-placed team, Ospreys, currently languish in 11th out of 16 teams.

The extraordinary short-sightedness of the Celtic nations in allowing the South African big beasts into their provincial competition is now playing out in Wales. Fans there are realising that they have four teams who have no hope of winning it, while commercially it continues to get chopped up into smaller pieces as private equity company CVC has quietly acquired more tranches in recent years, a reality confirmed in the Welsh Rugby Union report of 2023 if you look hard enough. Good luck sorting out that mess.

But, as bad as things get at the sub-Test level, the Wallabies and Wales still share the opportunity to turn things around through their Test teams.

As the WRU annual report also states, “a total of 65% of the group’s income was derived from staging international matches”. The Wallabies drive a similar if not greater percentage of Rugby Australia’s revenues.

Which brings us quite neatly to the two Tests between the proud nations in July. To the winners the spoils and to the losers the poison, because defeats would carry an ever heavier price than usual.

Perhaps it wasn’t hyperbole at all when Schmidt was humorously asked earlier this year if he could save the game.

With that in mind, the Wallabies cannot afford to be too choosy with selections. Acquaintances have posited that the Wallabies should tell Mark Nawaqanitawase to get stuffed because he won’t be around to face the British and Irish Lions next year.

It’s time to reward the blokes who will be sticking around, they reckon. If only the Wallabies could afford to be so high-minded. The fact is that Nawaqanitawase has built up some capital in the Wallabies jersey in recent years by the strength of his performances.

If he’s fit and in the right space – and there have been signs that his ability to beat the first defender has been unaffected by the Waratahs’ woes – then he should play.

Similarly, Josh Kemeny and Lachlan Swinton shouldn’t be penalised for taking their chances elsewhere if they fit Joe Schmidt’s plan of attack.

The Welsh, although in a state of crisis, will be competitive when they land. Warren Gatland is six months ahead of Schmidt because he has had the Six Nations to blood some of the newbies. In the back row, he has Jac Morgan, Tommy Reffell and Aaron Wainwright – terrific players all of them.

As a result, the series is as loseable as it is winnable. Perhaps it wasn’t hyperbole at all when Schmidt was humorously asked earlier this year if he could save the game. As with all good gags, it contained a kernel of truth.

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