Who are the Cup favourites? The three-minute guide for punters

It can be difficult for the once-a-year Melbourne Cup watcher to get a handle on racing’s peculiarities.

Back in the day, filling out a TAB ticket was as confusing as scoring at local cricket, and queues stretched out of branches on Tuesday morning. Tips came at you harder than the next morning’s headache.

Fans enjoy the races at Flemington.Credit: Justin McManus

These days, both betting and tips are more accessible – even abundant – via the internet and your phone.

Here’s our guide to help you navigate Australia’s greatest race.

Who are the 2024 Melbourne Cup favourites?

The favourites for this year’s race are Vauban (he was favourite last year, but struggled) and Buckaroo (can he run two miles?). Vauban is trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by William Buick; Buckaroo is trained by Chris Waller and ridden by Joao Moreira.

William Buick riding Vauban to win the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes in the UK on August 23.Credit: Getty Images

More often than not, the most fancied runners are the lower numbers, but because the Melbourne Cup is a handicap, the idea is for the official handicapper to give each horse the right weight based on form and ability to give every horse an equal chance of winning.

Other horses rated by our experts – see their predictions below – are internationals Okita Soushi (coming off a win in the Moonee Valley Cup last week) and Onesmoothoperator (who won the Geelong Cup).

If you’re looking for a roughie, Sharp ’N’ Smart is a blowout who finally showed some form in the Moonee Valley Cup, while Onesmoothoperator is the forgotten horse with Craig Williams on board.

One of our experts, Tim Habel, tips The Map as a lightweight long shot who will stay the trip.

There has been one early scratching – Athabascan was withdrawn by stewards on Monday afternoon after he was found to have a cardiac arrhythmia.

How and where to bet

Gamble responsibly, of course, and be aware that the TAB and pub aren’t the only places you can place a bet. Most of the action happens on phones, with a huge array of online bookmaking firms available if you download their apps.

You can’t, under sensible new laws, use credit cards to put money into many accounts, so you will need a way to have a deposit, which you can limit.

Once that’s done, there are a few different ways to bet. Those are: win (your horse must win); place (your horse must finish first, second or third); each way (you receive a dividend if your horse finishes in the top three); quinella (first two home in any order); exacta (first two home in exact order); trifecta (first three home); or first four (do I need to explain that?). You can also place mystery bets at TABs if studying weights, form, barriers, jockeys or trainers is not the way you want to spend your time.

Remember, the Melbourne Cup is race 7 at Flemington. If you know that and the number of the horse you aim to back, you’ll find a way.

Also understand that if a horse is paying $6 the win, then you will receive $6 for every dollar you place on the horse if it wins. Obviously, the higher the odds – a figure determined by experts based on where punters place their money or via a pool that spits out the odds – the greater the reward because the higher-priced horses are considered (for a whole range of reasons) to have less of a chance to win.

The experts’ tips

Fun facts to inform your decision

1. Only three fillies and 12 mares (female horses) have won the Cup. Verry Elleegant in 2021 was the first since Makybe Diva won three in a row from 2003 to 2005. The mares in this race are No.14 Zardozi, No.21 Positivity and No.23 The Map. Of course, if Cox Plate-winning mare Via Sistina hadn’t been ruled out, she would have started favourite.
2. Barrier 11 has produced the most winners, but has been in a drought since Americain won in 2010. Vauban is in barrier 11 this year. Barrier 7 (Absurde), 15 (Sharp ‘N’ Smart) and 18 (Land Legend) boast just one Cup win each, with Verry Elleegant breaking barrier 18’s duck in 2021.
3. No.4 is the most successful number – Warp Speed has the honour this year – while Interpretation is hoping to be the first horse to wear 18 to victory since Peter Pan in 1932.
4. The past two winners, Without A Fight and Gold Trip, carried more weight than any of this year’s starters, but horses carrying 51 kilograms to 51.5 kilograms have a good record in the race.

Consider an online sweep

If you want to have skin in the game but want the money invested to stay in the family, so to speak, organise a sweep. To enter a sweep, you need to pay a certain amount (some are $2 per horse, others are $10 per horse) to have a horse that’s drawn next to your name. The horse’s name is dragged out of a hat at the same time as your name, meaning, for example, Mary Bloggs is drawn as Valiant King is drawn. That means Mary Bloggs has Valiant King running for her in the race (bad luck Bloggsy).

At least you know your money is going to the lucky person who had the winner – you can decide how much goes to the winner – whether that be a family member or a friend at the barbie. The Age has done all the hard work for you with this online sweep.

Useful conversation-starters

You can respond to anyone who gives you a tip with the question: do you think they will run the trip? They will either expand on the reasons why the horse they mentioned could run from Melbourne to the You Yangs without slowing down, or acknowledge your understanding of how difficult it is for some horses to run two miles (3200 metres) at a good pace.

Another handy conversation starter in 2024 is to ask why James McDonald hasn’t got a ride in this year’s race. I could answer, but that would spoil the fun.

You could mention that there are a record-breaking four female jockeys with rides – Jamie Kah, Winona Costin, Hollie Doyle and Rachel King – a good step forward for the race that once stopped the nation. Michelle Payne is the only female jockey to win the race so far, with her 2015 victory on Prince of Penzance part of our national story.

Buckaroo has “the Magic Man” Joao Moreira on board, and every jockey will want their horse to settle, meaning they want them to relax in running to save energy for the run to the line.

The colours the jockeys wear are often attached to the owners. Sentiment will be with Interpretation, as his jockey will wear a cap bearing the royal blue and lime green colours of the late Colin McKenna, a co-owner of the horse.

Useful conversation-killers

Equally handy is responding to the question, “What’s your tip?” with the answer, “Don’t bet.”

Say “I backed Onesmoothoperator because it reminds me of myself”, or “Oh my God, I think I won the trifecta” just minutes after the race is over if you know nothing about racing and are surrounded by racing fanatics wearing long faces.

How to get there

Trains run to Flemington from Southern Cross Station, or you can catch the No. 57 tram to Flemington Drive. For ease, consider catching an Uber or taxi right to the gate. Public access parking will be limited. When you arrive, someone will point you to a marquee if you’ve been lucky enough to score a ticket to one.

Where to stand

The members’ stand is excellent at Flemington, which you can refer to as headquarters if you want to sound sharp and smart. But the grass area for the public in front of the Hill Stand has the advantage of being on the winning post, so you can see the Melbourne Cup runners as they pass – which they do twice in completing the race – and, of course, the winner.

Most importantly: don’t jump from the barriers too soon or race too fiercely, or you’ll be battling to find the line a long way from home.

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