Bulldogs have had a great season – but this is why the party is about to end

We’ve waited all year to get to the business end of the season, and the opening week of the finals will go a long way to telling us who will be lifting the trophy on the first Sunday in October.

Here’s how I see the first four finals playing out across the weekend.

Panthers v Roosters

The Roosters are just leaking too many points for my liking, which is why I think Penrith will advance straight through to the grand final qualifier.

You know the Panthers will always be difficult to beat in big games. They love the arm wrestle. The longer it goes and the tougher it gets, the more they enjoy it. I can’t see this finals series being any different.

You can easily draw a line through South Sydney to get a bit of a form reference here. The Panthers, while not at their best, held the Rabbitohs to just 12 points a fortnight ago. A week later, and I know they were missing a few players, the Roosters let an under-strength South Sydney pile on 28 with three late tries. That’s just too many for this time of year.

Nathan Cleary goes through his paces at training as he returns from a dislocated shoulder.Credit: Penrith Panthers

I still can’t get my head around the Roosters losing Victor Radley, Brandon Smith and, in particular, Sam Walker to injury in that disastrous game against the Raiders. Walker creates all their ad-lib attack out of structure.

The question is: how bad is Nathan Cleary’s shoulder? He’s the most influential player in the game when it comes to deciding results and his battle with Angus Crichton will be an absolute beauty. They are great mates off the field, have won State of Origin games together, but come Friday night it will be fair game.

Crichton is arguably the most destructive ball-runner in the NRL at the moment. He’s almost impossible to stop in a one-on-one situation. I suspect Cleary will be fine in attack, but defence might prove a problem.

But he’s so good I rate him as an 18- to 20-point difference when he plays for the Panthers.

Joey’s tip: Panthers by 8

Storm v Sharks

Undoubtedly, the Storm is the team to beat right now. They’re focused, in form, healthy and know what it takes to win big games. If they get a greater share of possession and field position, they simply win this game.

Cronulla loves the underdog tag, and they’ll scrap and claw to keep this as close as they can for as long as possible. But can they win the big games? There’s only one way to shut people up, and that’s by going down to Melbourne and winning. I know they did it earlier this year, but I can’t see it happening again on Saturday.

My early tip for the Clive Churchill Medal is Cameron Munster. I’ve got a feeling he’s going to be the best and most dominant player in this finals series. That’s taking nothing away from Jahrome Hughes, who has to be odds-on to win the Dally M Medal. What an outstanding season he’s had.

The battle between the halves will decide this game. I can’t speak highly enough about what Braydon Trindall has done for the Sharks this year. He’s playing like a dominant half, a genuine No.7, and has shown why he’s such an important cog in this Cronulla wheel now.

The challenge for Nicho Hynes is to take his game to another level now. He was great against Manly last week, but this is a new test.

Joey’s tip: Storm by 12

Cowboys v Knights

When it comes to Newcastle, I’m biased and happy to admit it. But Knights fans have one reason to believe why they can cause an upset in the tropics: Kalyn Ponga.

His movement and angles on a rugby league field when he’s attacking reminds me of a young Benji Marshall or Shaun Johnson – but only quicker and sharper. Yet the thing I love so much about what he’s been doing the last month is what he’s doing off the ball.

North Queensland’s Scott Drinkwater and Newcastle’s Kalyn Ponga.Credit: Getty

I watched him very closely last week in the top-eight shoot-out against the Dolphins, and he’s got his head on. He was constantly trying to encourage his teammates. That’s not something that has come naturally to Kalyn, but he’s realised the enormity of the responsibility when you lead an NRL team, particularly one which means so much to the community like the Knights do.

Now, in a football sense North Queensland’s edge defence has looked brittle for the majority of the year. If he can get just a little bit of time to scout wider on the field – and Newcastle’s forwards have done an enormous job lately creating that platform – he’s a chance of causing the Cowboys real trouble.

For Newcastle, it all comes down to Ponga.

On the other side, Scott Drinkwater is the X-factor and creativity the Cowboys thrive off. I love the way he plays without fear of making errors. An old gunslinger-type approach.

Newcastle have to target him when he’s defending in the line, because his defence can be questionable. His battle with Ponga will be mouth-watering.

Joey’s tip: Knights by 6

Bulldogs v Sea Eagles

I just don’t know how the Bulldogs flick the switch within the space of a week. They’ve had a tremendous season, and no one can take that away from them, but the last two weeks really worry me.

Bulldogs skipper Stephen Crichton.Credit: James Brickwood

Go through the key position players of both teams and who can shoot the lights out? Manly have Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic, and I’m not sure the Bulldogs have the same firepower.

Trbojevic’s return is even more important to the Sea Eagles than Cleary’s comeback is for the Panthers. That’s how valuable he is to Manly. I rate him as Manly’s second greatest-ever player behind Bob Fulton.

He can play as a traditional fullback, jump in at first receiver or even carry the ball like a prop close to the line.

We know how tough he is physically and mentally with all the injuries he’s suffered throughout his career, and he will get through this game with the help of a pain-killing injection.

Stephen Crichton is a great leader and a great captain, and without doubt the best defensive centre in the game. He will use all his enthusiasm to inspire his teammates and he will have them ready to explode.

But I think the class edge rests with the visitors for this one.

Joey’s tip: Sea Eagles by 16

NRL is Live and Free on Channel 9 & 9Now

Sports news, results and expert commentary. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.