‘It’s a little more than a guess’: Bailey defends McSweeney selection as concerning stats revealed

Chief selector George Bailey has defended the decision to throw Nathan McSweeney in as a Test opener against India next week after former Test batsmen Ed Cowan claimed that his elevation up the order was guessing he would succeed.

McSweeney, who has never opened the batting in the Sheffield Shield, will partner Usman Khawaja at the top of the order at Perth Stadium in the series opener despite a mediocre return when coming to the crease early in a team’s innings.

There have been eight occasions in first-class cricket where McSweeney, who is usually listed at No.3 or No.4 for South Australia, has batted inside the first three overs of an innings. He has produced scores 22, 0, 12, 20, 0, 67, 14 and 25 – the last two were as an opener for Australia A last week – for a return of 160 runs at an average of 20.

Speaking on the ABC’s Grandstand Cricket Podcast, Cowan highlighted McSweeney’s inability to make runs when early wickets had fallen, and questioned whether the selection panel – comprising Bailey, Andrew McDonald and Tony Dodemaide – had done their research.

“I feel slight vindication in many respects [by] suggesting that he is not an opening batter,” said Cowan, who made 68 on Test debut against India in 2011.

“The data would suggest that at the moment in his career, he doesn’t have the technique nor the temperament to do it.

Nathan McSweeney will make his Test debut against India next week. Credit: Photograph by Chris Hopkins

“You know what a selection, when the data doesn’t support your point of view, is? It’s a guess. Guesses sometimes pay off but that’s called luck, and if they don’t, they actually dilute the players’ confidence [across the country] … as to what it takes to get selected.”

Bailey was asked by SEN Radio’s Gerard Whateley whether the selection of McSweeney as an opener was indeed a guess.

“I’d like to think it’s a little more than a guess,” Bailey said, in reference to his former Tasmanian teammate’s comments. “We could all run our fingers down the list of leading run-scorers … but that’s not necessarily how cricket teams work. It’s how they fit together.

“The point was, in our minds, that it won’t be a major adjustment for him. Talking to Nathan, the way he prepares to go and play for South Australia, when he does bat at No.3, is it’s a very similar mindset and very similar way he’ll approach it. We think he’s got the game that will succeed at Test level.”

Former Test opener Aaron Finch wrote on X this week: “All selection is literally guessing!!!”

There is no doubt McSweeney is a player with real promise, but there are reservations about his ability to nullify India’s frontline quick Jasprit Bumrah given his record at domestic level against the new ball is relatively modest.

In the 20 times McSweeney has batted inside 10 overs in first-class matches, he has made 24.6 runs per innings.

Starting an innings between overs 11 and 20, McSweeney averages 43.95. That number rises to 55.17 when beginning his innings between overs 21 and 30.

The 25-year-old has six first-class hundreds – only one was batting at No.3 – and an overall average of 38.16.

Selectors decided against picking a specialist opening batsman, with Marcus Harris, Cameron Bancroft and Sam Konstas all left out of Australia’s Test squad.

“We do value Shield cricket,” Bailey said. “There’s been a couple of circumstances where we have looked for and utilised players who haven’t traditionally opened, but that’s not to say that’s the template for the future. We’ll pick the player who we feel is best suited for the role.

“We certainly think Nathan will complement the players he has around him in the Test team.”

Meanwhile, Bailey confirmed Josh Inglis is unlikely to be considered for a Test debut in Perth, due to his busy travel schedule with Australia’s one-day and T20 squad, unless there was a late injury.