Trade tightrope: The huge calls Richmond face on their stars

The path that Richmond takes on whether to trade out Daniel Rioli and/or Shai Bolton represents the most consequential decision that the club has faced since the exit of Damien Hardwick and his replacement by Adem Yze.

The Tigers will likely lose Liam Baker to either Fremantle or West Coast, and they’re comfortable with that reality, recognising that Baker is out of contract and has every right to return home to Perth.

Rioli leaving to reunite with Hardwick at Gold Coast would sting Richmond people, who are still adjusting to the break-up of a band that delivered so many hits and memories and to Hardwick’s rapid shedding of his Tiger skin.

Pivotal decisions loom for Richmond around Shai Bolton and Daniel Rioli.Credit: Getty Images

Thankfully, the threat of Dusty Martin joining the “Dimma” Suns has receded to the point that we will be surprised if Dusty un-retires and lands on the beach.

But to add the loss of Bolton, arguably the club’s most gifted player, to that of Baker and Rioli would be revolutionary. It would signal a near complete list-reconstruction under Yze and would almost compel the hierarchy to guarantee the senior coach at least another three years after 2024.

Instinctively, this column’s initial reaction to the prospect of losing that trio of premiership players, in their primes (Bolton 25, Baker 26, Rioli 27) was to say that the Tigers would be unwise to lose all three and that they should avoid stripping back too far when Tom Lynch, Dylan Grimes, Nick Vlastuin, Toby Nankervis, Dion Prestia and Nathan Broad have all turned 30.

Carlton levelled the list to near ground zero in 2015 and while they – finally – have enough mature top-end talent to contend, it has been a turbulent journey that has seen four coaches, three CEOs and other high visibility officials disappear down the Royal Parade trapdoor.

But on consideration, the answer to the Richmond riddle – whether they keep Rioli and Bolton, sell one or trade both – is contingent upon what they would get back in return, and how they would compensate for the loss of three of their best players, culturally and on-field.

Rioli and Bolton are secured on contracts for three and four more years respectively. Richmond can simply hold them to their contracts if they wish, thumbing their nose at the offers from the Suns and Perth teams.

Rioli is certain to fetch at least a first round pick and potentially another decent pick if he goes. Two first rounds is over the odds, but it is clear that the Tigers would extract more from Suns – who have seldom had quality players queuing up to join – than from anyone else.

Bolton is more problematic. He has just become a father for the second time and the club is aware that he would explore a move home to Perth for family/personal reasons.

Bolton’s is Richmond’s premier match-turner and could be a huge difference-maker to a Fremantle team that’s well-placed for multiple flag assaults. I’m not convinced he is such a valuable asset for West Coast, given their demographics are not dissimilar to Richmond’s as a team that’s tipped over into rebuild; the Eagles can hardly afford to hand over too much draft capital.

Therein lies another complication: Whichever of Fremantle or West Coast lands Baker will give up a first rounder, and that club might be less inclined to pay an even heftier premium for Bolton.

The Dockers hold three first-round picks, including Collingwood’s (courtesy of a generous Lachie Schultz trade), so they’re the more logical landing for Bolton and possibly Baker.

West Coast have pick three on current ladder positions, which they will obviously be loath to give up. But they’re a fair chance to trade Tom Barrass (Hawthorn?) in exchange for a first rounder, which can be parlayed into a trade for Baker.

Rioli is performing closer to his peak and his body language and tireless effort suggest he’s more invested than Bolton, who has not scaled the heights of 2022 in a team that has been smashed by injuries this year.

We can speculate about Fremantle, West Coast and Gold Coast’s offerings for the Tiger trio, but really these deals would be on Richmond’s racquet; barring Baker, the Tigers can hold.

To let all three depart, the Tigers would need to be satisfied of the following:

1. That the draft return will bring the club closer to premiership contention;
2. That the fabric of the team and club will not be damaged for an extended period.
3. That they have sufficient senior players – Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper among the key leaders – to retain spirit and competitive performances during the trough, however long it lasts.

A further, unintended risk of forfeiting too much mid-career quality is that it renders the club – even a powerhouse like Richmond – unattractive to free agents and high calibre mature recruits from other clubs; it is rare that free agents or departing A graders choose teams that are mired in mediocrity or worse.

Conversely, Hawthorn have shown that it is possible to jettison experience – and prune back the list to supposedly dangerous levels of inexperience – and still to have rapid regrowth. And the Hawks are sexy again for free agents et al.

Having imitated Hawthorn’s unsuccessful acquisitions of Jaeger O’Meara, Tom Mitchell and Chad Wingard (deals that delayed their renaissance) by recruiting Taranto and Hopper, there’s a case for Richmond doing a version of Sam Mitchell’s audacious youth policy.

It largely hangs on what you can get.