‘Their strength has become a liability’: The problem with Carlton and how to fix it

Carlton president Rob Priestly says it’s all about the next eight weeks at Ikon Park, but the Blues’ problems run deeper than that. Whatever decision is made at the end of the season about the future of senior coach Michael Voss, who is contracted for 2026, the list needs surgery and the top AFL teams are playing a game style that has moved beyond the contested-ball brand at which Carlton excels. Ahead of Friday night’s MCG clash with Collingwood, we asked a former AFL list boss and a former senior coach how to fix Carlton.

The list manager

There’s danger at every turn

The AFL competition is akin to walking through a minefield. It takes no prisoners. Such is Carlton in 2025 – seemingly needing to navigate danger at every turn.

Carlton, like Essendon, are being scrutinised more forensically than others who are failing to perform in recent times. That is the reality of being one of the “big four” clubs in Victoria. The demands are greater, the repercussions even stronger.

Tom De Koning and the Blues train at Ikon Park this week.Credit: Getty Images

But rarely do a team’s struggles come down to just the players and their coach. The genesis of the Blues’ current problems can be traced back a number of years.

Corey Durdin, Jack Carroll, Jesse Motlop, Ollie Hollands, Lachie Cowan, Jaxon Binns, Ashton Moir, Billy Wilson, Jagga Smith and Harry O’Farrell represent the collective value of 10 first- and second-round selections in the five AFL national drafts since 2020. They have played 233 AFL games from a possible 2507 matches during that period. A period during which they finished 13th, ninth, fourth, eighth and currently 11th on the ladder.

These players are in a group of 23 first- and second-round national draft selections since 2015.
Names that include Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, Tom De Koning, Sam Walsh and Brodie Kemp until 2019, but significantly fewer of note since (with respect to Jagga Smith, who is injured and unavailable in 2025).

Therein lies part of the problem impacting Carlton now. Limited draft returns since 2020 have been exacerbated by an unbalanced salary cap model desperate to retain the above players drafted before 2019 (including Patrick Cripps), while absorbing excessive contracts for the likes of Mitch McGovern and Zac Williams.

This situation appears similar to one I experienced at St Kilda at the end of 2011, where the top 10 players attracted in excess of 60 per cent of the salary cap and were collectively paid over 20 per cent more than the top 10 players at Hawthorn from where I had just come – a team that included Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead, Shaun Burgoyne, Cyril Rioli, Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson and Brad Sewell.

Rather than operating a suitably tapered player payments model, St Kilda and now, it appears, Carlton, choose to pay their best players above market value, either out of fear of losing them, or due to the void in talent between these and others on their list.

While Adam Cerra, George Hewett and Adam Saad were positive additions to the Blues at the end of 2020-21, too many trades since then have focused on adding “depth” players rather than those filling a primary need. This invariably leads to the stunted development of younger players.

Patrick Cripps and Jacob Weitering after Carlton’s loss to Richmond one.Credit: AFL Photos

So where is Carlton’s list at right now?

Using the same metrics utilised at Hawthorn to analyse player lists between 2005-2011, Carlton’s list is currently ranked eighth in the competition. Its strengths are based on contested possession (ranked first), stoppage clearances (fourth) and first possession (first). Players such as Cripps, Hewett, Walsh and Cerra are all integral to these areas. Strong bodies, committed minds.

Conversely, their weaknesses are glaring and highlight the need for real change. The Blues’ ball use is terrible – disposal efficiency (ranked 18th), kicking efficiency (17th). And the latter is even more telling when considering that kicking efficiency has been a key component of premiership teams over the past 20 years. Ignore this and success will elude you.

While Cripps, Curnow, Weitering, Walsh, De Koning and Cerra should be retained, change is necessary and it requires deliberate intent – both on and off the field.

Who should the Blues trade?

Harry McKay’s and Zac Williams’ contracts are strangling the Blues’ salary cap – neither represent value and should be moved, acknowledging that the latter will attract limited trade return. Mitch McGovern is the same and, despite not having a likely suitor, any possible reduction in player payments must be the priority.

Ollie Hollands.Credit: Getty Images

The combined qualities of Elijah and Ollie Hollands would make an outstanding player. Elijah’s work ethic is to be admired, but his kicking is lacking, and while Ollie’s “run and carry” is important, he needs to have greater impact, particularly on the scoreboard. With Binns, Moir and the Camporeale brothers developing in the VFL, plus Smith to return in 2026, Elijah Hollands is likely to become a future trade option.

Carlton need players who hurt the opposition with their disposal. They must target former Victorians such as Lachie Ash (GWS) and Miles Bergman (Port Adelaide) – even though the latter has recently re-signed with the Power.

Disposal efficiency is critical.

With heavily compromised drafts approaching due to the Tassie Devils, it is essential that Carlton improve their draft position in 2025. Current indicative selections at picks 35, 44 and 62 won’t suffice – they must actively trade into the first two rounds in both this year and 2026.

Carlton still have the nucleus of a team to play finals but their reliance on the same five or six players must be spread across a broader group. This will come from the intensive development of younger players and the reshaping of their list demographic, especially around kicking skills. They are four to five players short of being a genuine threat but, through specific recruiting and better salary cap modelling, they could be back in contention soon.

The coach

What the Blues do well

Footy at the highest level demands teams move quickly with changes in the game, while holding true to the basics and fundamentals.

Contests and stoppages remain pivotal to winning and losing, but maintaining possession of the ball while going forward has become king. Win it, get the ball to the outside, widen and lengthen the ground, connect inside 50 and set up behind attack to defend turnover is what coaches talk about and players train to execute. Carlton have been built on these solid foundations.

At their best, they are a brilliant stoppage and contested-ball team. The club played finals last year
predominantly due to this – it was exciting to watch. History shows tough, contest-based teams that can move the ball and defend the ground win finals.

Where the game plan falls down

However, an over-reliance on this strength may have become a liability. Carlton’s season reflects an inability to turn first possessions into clearances, and a clunky offence that doesn’t create organised scoring opportunities or allow the team time to set defence behind their attack.

They are missing key finishing personnel, particularly runners who can transfer the ball into space and stress the opposition.

Sam Walsh and Charlie Curnow.Credit: Getty Images

Barometers of success over the past 18 months have moved towards metres gained, time in possession, disposal efficiency and uncontested possessions. These are strengths of Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Collingwood, and reigning premiers the Brisbane Lions.

Game style evolution, injuries, and passionate expectations are part of the storm the Blues find themselves in.

Meetings and education time will have been occupied with finding a way to have better balance around contests and stoppages to provide a secondary layer of ball-winning coverage and offence that is harder to defend. They should be using the numbers they have around the ball, changing lanes and taking the short, easy option. For this to flourish all players have to accept their role and understand it is not always their turn to have the ball, but to create space for someone else.

Where to from here?

The remainder of the season will be reflective of how they maximise strengths and manage weaknesses. Entrusting players to make decisions based on what is in front of them should be prominent at training: See it, take it, or wait for my teammates to get into position, or create a scoring opportunity on a slow play outside 50.

All of these require trust, communication, composure and belief. What it does is reward hard work at the coalface and allow them time to defend the ground. Expectations internally can be tricky to manage while, externally, a club can’t control hopes and dreams other than wins and losses. Welcome to the Blues in 2025.

Perspective is key in our industry. In the past two weeks Carlton have been dismantled by a North Melbourne team that possesses an incredibly talented young midfield who will mature into something special. After a harrowing week, the Blues encountered a hungry Port Adelaide team at home. Beaten significantly in patches, in both games Carlton fought back. To me, it reflects a group willing to fight but lacking cohesion.

AFL football demands you find a way. Introduce some younger players with leg speed, polish and enthusiasm. Find the good in everyone. Recognise good behaviours. Believe in miracles. Carlton is full of resilient and great people. Seeing them grow and emerge will be a great watch.

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