September heat: This is who is under the most pressure in the finals

In the unforgiving world of AFL, only one team earns the ultimate honour – the premiership. The other 17 teams, regardless of how strong their season, quickly fade from memory.

In global sports, a successful season capped by a finals appearance might be cause for celebration, but in the AFL, coaches find little solace without winning a flag.

From left: Carlton star Charlie Curnow, Giants skipper Toby Greene, and Western Bulldogs forward Aaron Naughton.Credit: Photos: Getty Images, AFL Photos. Artwork: Marija Ercegovac

Ken Hinkley and Chris Fagan, among others, know this pressure all too well. Their efforts have repeatedly fallen short in September, magnifying the intensity each time they enter finals.

As the spotlight grows brighter in September, the weight of expectation can be overwhelming. Some will rise to the challenge, others will falter under the strain.

These six men face the toughest task of all – staying composed when the heat is on and delivering when it matters most.

Ken Hinkley

It’s been a dramatic season for Hinkley in his 12th year with Port Adelaide.

Earlier in the season, he was disgracefully booed by his own fans after a crushing 79-point defeat to the Brisbane Lions in round 15.

However, Hinkley responded by uniting his players, brushing off criticism from disgruntled fans and board member Warren Tredrea.

Since that Lions debacle, and a major defensive adjustment, the Power have won eight of their last nine games, securing second place and a home final against Geelong.

With the second-best win-loss record (61.4 per cent) among the current finals coaches, Hinkley knows only a grand final appearance will be a pass mark.

Despite facing significant personnel challenges, including the loss of key running defenders Dan Houston (suspension) and Kane Farrell (hamstring), there will be no excuses for the club’s fans who are hunting Hinkley’s scalp.

Luke Beveridge

The Bulldogs’ season began with a shaky start – three wins and five losses – leading Beveridge to temper expectations. He hinted at the need for the team to evolve and suggested they might need to take a step back before contending again.

Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge.Credit: Getty Images

But the Bulldogs boast the AFL’s strongest and most talented list, capable of winning the premiership.

Beveridge has successfully steered the team to eight wins from its last 10 games, securing a home elimination final against Hawthorn.

But with a missed top-four finish and no finals victories in the past two seasons, the pressure is rising.

Anything less than a grand final appearance would be a significant disappointment for Beveridge, considering the strength and health of his squad heading into September.

Chris Fagan’s Lions have come close so many times in September.Credit: AFL Photos

Chris Fagan

After coming within a kick of a premiership in 2023, Fagan once again finds himself under the finals spotlight.

The Lions began this season with talk of dissent within the playing group and just three wins from their first eight games, seemingly destined to miss the finals. However, Fagan’s unwavering positivity and belief in his team sparked a remarkable nine-game winning streak, positioning them for a top-two finish.

But unforgivable late-season losses to GWS and Collingwood have left them outside the top four.

It’s been 21 years since the Lions’ last premiership, but Fagan has all the tools and a soft first-up clash against a wounded Carlton side to mount a serious challenge from outside the top four.

If he falters again in September, the calls for change will grow louder as the premiership window begins to close on this talented group.

Aaron Naughton

Despite signing an eight-year deal with the Bulldogs last October, Naughton has yet to justify the club’s considerable investment. Naughton is paid like a multiple All-Australian, but has yet to be named even in the squad.

Naughton has kicked just 32 goals in 2024, placing him 31st on the league’s goal-kicking tally. In his last seven games he’s kicked an underwhelming eight goals.

Only twice this season has he booted four goals or more.

Facing an undersized Hawthorn defence in Friday’s elimination final, Naughton is set for a favourable match-up. It’s time for his performances to start reflecting his hefty pay cheque.

Charlie Curnow

Curnow faces a tough task this September, hampered by a limited preparation following an ankle injury in round 23 against Hawthorn.

His reputation took a major hit after last year’s finals series, where he managed only 10 disposals per game and kicked three goals across three matches. More alarming was how many critical contests he lost and how influential his opponents Tom McCartin and Steven May were.

What impact will star Blue Charlie Curnow have in the finals?Credit: AFL Photos

If he declares himself fit for next Saturday’s elimination final against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, there will be no room for excuses. For the Blues to pull off a significant upset and stay alive, Curnow will need a heroic, career-defining performance.

Toby Greene

After leading the Giants from outside the top four to a grand final in 2019 and a preliminary final in 2023, Greene now faces his best chance at a premiership with his team in the top four. However, his form has dipped this season, with his goal tally dropping from 66 last year to 41.

As a foundation player and the Giants’ greatest-ever player, there would be no more deserving premiership captain than Greene. But at 31, time is running out.

While he could be the standout player in this finals series, the fallout will be significant if he falls short.

In this finals series, reputations will be forged or shattered under the immense pressure. For these six figures, there’s no room for underperformance – only their best will be enough to silence the critics.

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