By Jon Pierik
The final grid has been locked in – the four games to start the 2024 AFL finals campaign set. After a weekend to refresh, it will be down to action. Here’s what you need to know.
Second qualifying final
Port Adelaide v Geelong
Game time: Thursday, September 5, 7.40pm (AEST). Adelaide Oval.
This season: Round 9: Port Adelaide 15.11 (101) defeated Geelong 14.11 (95) at GMHBA Stadium.
Bad night: Tom Hawkins had what he had hoped would be a night of celebration defused by the Power in round nine. Will he return from injury in time for the finals?Credit: Getty Images
The lowdown: The Power slammed through eight first-quarter goals and led by as much as 49 points in the second term, before the Cats surged home and almost pinched victory on a night Tom Hawkins equalled Joel Selwood’s club games record. Power skipper Connor Rozee was among four injury-enforced changes that night, but stand-in skipper Zak Butters, Ollie Wines and Willie Rioli were superb. As was Jason Horne-Francis in the first half, before Jeremy Cameron, Zach Guthrie and Tyson Stengle almost dragged the Cats over the line. While the Power rejoiced on that cold May night, the clubs have split their past six games.
What now: The Cats are sweating on Tom Stewart’s fitness, the star playmaker was subbed off with a tight hamstring against the Eagles. The Cats insist the five-time All Australian will be right to play. Chris Scott’s men have been difficult to read at times, but they have the arsenal to claim a second flag within three years. However, much will depend upon Patrick Dangerfield, Jeremy Cameron and Stewart, who may face a hard tag. The Cats know how to get things done at this time of the year. Will they pull the trigger on Tom Hawkins? Time will tell. The Power head into a qualifying final with great belief. While this may be the most mentally fortified team Ken Hinkley has had, their historical inability to get the job done in September means public confidence isn’t high. Rozee and Horne-Francis are blue-chip stars, but can the Power really cover for the suspended Dan Houston, arguably the league’s best half-back? We’ll see.
Early tip: Cats by 11 points.
Second elimination final
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn
Game time: Friday, September 6, at 7.40pm. MCG.
This season: Round 8: Hawthorn 14.14 (98) defeated Western Bulldogs14.7 (91) at Marvel Stadium.
The lowdown: The Hawks have won the past two games between these clubs, the Bulldogs having prevailed in the previous three. Hawks skipper James Sicily was the hero in round eight when, having suffered a dislocated shoulder, he was sent forward and booted what proved to be the winning goal. This was only the Hawks’ second win of the season, but it proved to be the catalyst for an astonishing run which has culminated in one of the more unlikely finals berths after the Hawks dropped their opening five games of the season. The Bulldogs had their troubles at the time, too, although captain Marcus Bontempelli was brilliant with 26 possessions, seven clearances and two goals. Jai Newcombe and teammate Connor Macdonald were among the Hawks’ best.
September dreaming: Jack Ginnivan returns to finals action, while his former Collingwood teammates have an earlier-than-hoped break.Credit: via Getty Images
What now: This shapes as a classic. These two teams rank elite at both ends of the ground over the past month. The Dogs are sweating on the match review officer’s adjudication of a Liam Jones’ tackle on Aaron Cadman, which could be deemed rough conduct. Jones is arguably the Bulldogs most important player because of what he means to their defensive structure. Adam Treloar is nursing a calf issue, but is expected to play. Will Day, the man club great Dermott Brereton rates as the Hawks’ best player, is nursing a partially dislocated collarbone, and will need to prove his fitness next week. The Hawks now face the challenge of quelling the Bulldogs’ tall forward line.
Conversely, can the Bulldogs handle the Hawks’ run-and-gun style? Coach Sam Mitchell says there is no reason why his team cannot launch a deep run, having won six of their past seven games. “We’ve known for six weeks we could maybe afford to lose one game, and we did lose that one game,” Mitchell said. “We’re going to have to be consistent for another four games if we’re going to get all the way ... winning finals is tough to do, but we’ve given ourselves a chance.”
Early tip: Bulldogs by five points.
First qualifying final
Sydney v Greater Western Sydney
Game time: Saturday, September 7, 3.20pm. SCG.
This season: Round 8: Sydney 14.14 (98) defeated GWS 10.9 (69) at the SCG. Round 15: Sydney 15.12 (102) defeated GWS 11.9 (75) at ENGIE Stadium.
Here we go: Isaac Heeney and the Swans have the double chance.Credit: Getty Images
The lowdown: The Sydney derby has established itself as one of the best rivalries in the competition; this latest qualifying final will only add to the spice. That the Swans have won five of the past six clashes – the Giants’ only victory in this period coming in round seven last year at the SCG – will give the “orange tsunami” even more reason to torpedo big brother.
What now: The Swans stumbled late in the season, dropping five of six matches, but have won their past three, and head into September as arguably the team to beat. That they will have at least two home finals is a bonus, but their chipping game style through the midfield has had its issues. Tom Papley’s expected return from injury is huge, while winger Justin McInerney is also pushing for a call-up. We look forward to what a rested Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden (41 disposals, 973 metres gained in round 15, and a third straight Brett Kirk medal as best afield) and Nick Blakey bring to September.
The Giants have selection issues to address, for they could have six changes to the team which took to the field against the Bulldogs on Sunday.
Ruckman Kieren Briggs aggravated a shoulder injury, while All Australian contender Brent Daniels (back) was a late change, but the Giants expect he will play. Toby Bedford (calf) faces a fitness test. Isaac Cumming, Jake Riccardi and Lachie Ash (suspension) will all push for a recall.
The Giants’ seven-game winning streak was snapped on Sunday, but they remain a legitimate premiership threat, and have the pain of last season to erase. Remember Toby Greene’s dressingroom tears? Marking forward Jesse Hogan has had a career-best year, Tom Green and Lachie Whitfield have been superb, while James Peatling has stepped up in the midfield with teammates injured.
Early tip: Sydney by two points.
First elimination final
Brisbane Lions v Carlton
Game time: Saturday, September 7, 7.30pm (AEST). The Gabba.
This season: Opening round: Carlton 13.8 (86) defeated Brisbane 12.13 (85) at the Gabba.
The lowdown: The Blues returned to the “Gabbatoir” in March for the season opener determined to ease memories of their preliminary final loss last season. Remember, they booted the opening five goals that night, yet still were beaten. On this latest occasion, they trailed by 31 points at half-time, but a stunning seven-goal-to-one third term gave the visitors a one-point lead by the final change. Each side managed just two goals apiece in the final term, the Blues emerging with a famous victory thanks to four goals from Charlie Curnow and three from Harry McKay.
Man on a mission: It’s time the Blues delivered for Patrick Cripps.Credit: Getty Images
What now: The Blues have experienced the full gamut of emotions over the past 24 hours, from despair at having lost to the Saints and falling out of the top eight, to joy after the Power’s win over the Dockers in Perth gave them a September reprieve. The Blues were second on the ladder a month ago, but injuries and poor form led to four losses from their past five games. It’s now over to their medical and fitness teams to have the likes of Curnow, McKay, Mitch McGovern, Jack Martin and Zac Williams healthy. This club owes Patrick Cripps a premiership.
For the Lions, successive defeats meant they, too, squandered the double chance, but victory over Essendon on Saturday night has calmed the nerves. They will look to Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron to get the job done up forward, while a dynamic midfield complete with Lachie Neale and Hugh McCluggage will test the Blues. Dayne Zorko has become a key playmaker at half-back, as the Lions seek atonement for last year’s grand-final loss.
Early tip: Lions by eight points.
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