By Andrew Wu
Five minutes before quarter-time against Greater Western Sydney early last month, the Carlton juggernaut was rolling. A game and a half clear in second spot and leading by 39 points, the rampaging Blues appeared on track for a sixth straight victory with serious aspirations for a drought-breaking flag.
The events of the next two hours sent the Blues’ season into freefall. Second for much of June and July, the Blues are out of the eight midway through August, bruised, battered and almost broken, facing the distinct possibility of having September off.
Got the Blues: Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Patrick Cripps.Credit: Graphic: Marija Ercegovac
Their finals bid became all that more difficult on Tuesday when they ruled out twin towers Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, Adam Saad, Jack Martin, Lachie Fogarty and Jordan Boyd for the road trip to face West Coast on Sunday, meaning there will be at least six changes to the side.
Curnow, McKay, Saad and Martin are in contention to face St Kilda in the final round. The Eagles game is suddenly a 50-50 clash for the injury-ravaged Blues, who have 17 players in the casualty ward. A total of 11 players are missing from the team that lost to the Brisbane Lions in a preliminary final last year.
Where did the Blues’ season go so wrong?
The Blues’ troubles started at a time when they had close to a full list to choose from, except for the season-ending injuries to Sam Docherty and Jack Silvagni.
Seldom during Michael Voss’s time at Ikon Park has he had such player availability. This unusual situation gave Voss and his match committee the rare chance to tinker with the side, particularly in the midfield.
In the first of a series of eyebrow-raising moves, the Blues dropped proven ball-winner George Hewett for the game against the Giants, a week after starting him as the sub. Hewett had averaged 21 disposals in his previous five games before donning the sub’s vest. All were wins.
Despite the Blues’ midfield being comprehensively outplayed in the final three quarters by the Giants, there was no automatic recall for Hewett. Instead, the on-ball experiment continued with Matthew Kennedy starting as the sub the following week in the loss to the Western Bulldogs.
These calls came as they welcomed back Adam Cerra after six weeks out from a second hamstring strain – the fourth of five he had suffered since coming to Carlton for the 2022 season – to work out their best midfield mix, and Matthew Cottrell, a role player whose form had been patchy before injury.
Cerra was slow to get going, further exposing the Blues’ lack of ball-winners in the middle. He was later shifted to halfback before being hamstrung again. Alex Cincotta had been in hot form as a tagger but his effectiveness in that role tapered.
“It’s not just about putting out 23 of our best players. If that was the case, it would probably be a different discussion,” Voss said on the eve of the loss to the Giants about Hewett’s omission.
“We ask our players to be able to have a balance within their role as well. We are role-specific, we do need a system to be able to operate and that cohesion that we want to be able to have across the group … we’re trying to balance that always and find the best version of ourselves.
“If we’re having those conversations for the next eight or nine weeks of the home and away season, I’ll be pretty happy.”
Voss gave further insight to his exploratory mindset about the team when, asked after the loss to the Bulldogs about the conundrum of playing both Tom De Koning and Marc Pittonet, he said “we’re still evolving as a footy team, nothing’s set”.
As they experimented, gaping holes opened up in their play. The Blues’ game is built on contest and pressure. They became vulnerable in both areas. Their contested numbers plummeted from first across the opening 16 rounds to 10th since round 17. Their scores from clearance differential dropped from 11th to 16th. No team has leaked more from defensive 50 stoppages.
A defence that had been bottom six for scores conceded for much of the year, slumped to bottom four – hardly the profile of a premiership contender. This had been a strength in Voss’s first two years at Carlton, when they were sixth and fourth for points against.
Their fit list lasted about a week. Back line general Jacob Weitering suffered another corked thigh in the first term against the Giants in round 17, severely limiting his movement. His designated opponent, Jesse Hogan, monstered the undersized Brodie Kemp, booting five goals. Defender Mitch McGovern spent quarter-time seeking medical treatment for a hip injury that sidelined him for two weeks.
Charlie Curnow rolled an ankle in the warm-up before the Giants game and has not been the same player since. His injury gradually worsened, not helped by another mishap against Collingwood two weeks ago. The Blues rolled the dice by playing him against Hawthorn off a limited week on the track, and came up with snake eyes when Curnow aggravated the injury.
Voss defended the club’s handling of Curnow, saying only rest at the end of the season would resolve the issue. In hindsight, the Blues may wonder if he should have been rested, considering they won only one game in that time.
De Koning, 25, in his first season as the primary ruck, was showing signs of tiredness when his home-and-away campaign came to a thudding halt with a broken foot and a punctured lung against North Melbourne.
Not helped by a match-day illness to McKay and injury to one of their best runners Blake Acres, they ran out of legs off a five-day break against Port Adelaide, blowing a 31-point lead just before half-time.
Cerra and Saad have become less resilient since moving to Carlton. Only Richmond have lost more games to injury for their best 23 this season. Since round 17, the Blues are equal third for most players used.
Carlton’s season is not over. Wins against the Eagles and St Kilda would likely book them a finals berth in the manner few could have imagined in June.
Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.