‘If I won lottery, I would never leave’: Melbourne’s most tightly held suburbs

Mattia Hunter would never move away from her beloved Carlton North.

She grew up in the area before buying one of the suburb’s classic Victorian terrace houses, where she and her husband have spent the last five years raising their young family.

Carlton North recorded a turnover rate of 3.2 per cent over the last decade.Credit: Jason South

The 36-year-old mother of two says while it’s time to upsize their home, she would never dream of leaving this inner-city pocket of Melbourne.

Carlton North is among the suburbs homeowners are reluctant to move away from, boasting one of the lowest turnover rates in Melbourne, on CoreLogic data. Only 3.2 per cent of homes in the suburb changed hands per year on average over the past decade, compared to Melbourne’s decade average of 4.8 per cent.

Homeowners in Carlton North held on to their properties for an average of 14.6 years, one of the longest in Melbourne, based on sales in the 12 months to March. That compares to Greater Melbourne’s median hold period of 9.2 years.

Hunter has built her entire life in Carlton North – she opened a pre-loved vintage clothing store on Rathdowne Street with her sister, who lives just down the road, her children attend primary school and daycare nearby, and her parents – including her dad, former Carlton football player Ken Hunter – still live in the area.

“I always say if I won lottery, I would never leave Carlton North,” Hunter said.

While it’s time for Hunter and her growing family to upsize, she is worried about being priced out of the sought-after suburb.

“We’re currently in a two-bedroom house, so we’re looking at either buying a bigger property or we’re looking at going up on our own house,” Hunter said.

“You’re scared to move (away). We’re in a market where we own our home in Carlton North, but we’re even scared to buy and sell because...you’re really lucky to be where you are. There’s no way that people would gamble with losing that position – I’m never leaving Carlton North.”

Homeowners also seem reluctant to leave the nearby inner-city suburbs of Princes Hill and Flemington, with each recording median turnover rates of 2.9 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively, across the last decade. East Melbourne also had a 3.1 per cent rate.

A swathe of outer suburbs were tightly held, such as Warrandyte, Park Orchards, Wonga Park, Taylors Lakes and Narre Warren North at 3.2 per cent or less.

CoreLogic head of residential research Eliza Owen said higher hold periods and lower turnover rates reflected the desirability of Melbourne’s suburbs.

Long-term property owners in these suburbs were often a mix of investors and families, she said.

“You might have investors who have been kind of riding out a period of sluggish capital growth and waiting for these properties to become more profitable before they decide to sell, or it could be a part of a long-term investment strategy,” Owen said.

“At the other end of the spectrum, it’s a completely different kind of ownership and tenure where it is areas that 10, 15, 20 years ago, were actually very popular with young families and now those families have grown older, but for whatever reason, the family’s still occupying it.”

Nelson Alexander Carlton partner and selling agent Charlie Barham said inner-city suburbs offered a “village feel” and unbeatable location which homeowners don’t want to give up.

“There are plenty of homes that haven’t turned over in 20, 30, 40 years, so I think people buying in those little pockets are thinking very long term,” Barham told The Age.

“You’ve got families that have been living here for generation after generation, where family homes have been handed down or internally purchased.”

Barham said the only reason residents ever packed up and sold in areas like Carlton North was because they desired more space.

“We see, time after time, a young professional couple buying in these areas, starting a family, moving a little bit further out or closer to schools,” he said.

“Fast forward 10 years, they’ll downsize back into these areas, so I think when people do leave, quite often they’ll even come back.”

In outer Melbourne, director at Fletchers Real Estate Warrandyte Daniel Bolton said family buyers were drawn to the bigger blocks and “bush” lifestyle of these “destination suburbs”.

“If you’re buying there in that 30s to 40s age bracket, you’re probably staying there for at least 15 to 20 years and possibly longer,” Bolton said.

“It’s that dream property for people and a dream location where, once they’re in, they’re not moving out of there unless they absolutely need to.”