Will a backlash against the premier help the Nats in this safe Labor seat?

Bendigo may not seem like the most obvious place for the Nationals to run their Victorian federal election campaign. The safe Labor seat and its gold rush town haven’t been won by the Coalition since 1996.

But the Nats are spending more here than anywhere else in Victoria, letterboxing homes with leaflets as part of a campaign tying federal Labor to Premier Jacinta Allan, the Bendigo East state MP.

Few are betting on the electorate changing hands; Labor’s Lisa Chesters won in 2022 with a handsome 12.1 per cent margin, which would not normally make Bendigo a target.

Labor MP for Bendigo Lisa Chesters.Credit: PENNY STEPHENS

Yet Andrew Lethlean, a well-known local bar operator, is running a big campaign as the Nats candidate. The party is pouring resources into the seat, perhaps nearing $1 million. “The kitchen sink”, as a Coalition operative called it.

A Labor figure, speaking privately to be frank about the campaign, put it succinctly: “What the hell is going on in Bendigo?”

With comfortable margins in their three existing Victorian federal seats, the Nationals are looking for other opportunities to gain new voters.

Nationals candidate for the federal seat of Bendigo, Andrew Lethlean, handing over a beer at his bar.Credit: PENNY STEPHENS

It’s the only place on Australia’s east coast where the Liberals and Nationals are in competition with each other this election. Last time the Nats ran here, back in 2016, they only pulled 3.63 per cent of primary votes.

The Nationals are looking to capitalise on a possible backlash against Allan, whose statewide popularity has hollowed out in successive polls. (Allan won Bendigo East with a solid 10.8 per cent margin at the 2022 state election.)

Nationals campaign leaflets show Allan wearing a “yes” T-shirt from federal Labor’s failed Voice referendum. About 60 per cent of people in Bendigo voted “no”.

“Life keeps getting harder with the cost of living out of control, and crime is getting worse in our community. We can’t keep going on like this,” the leaflet reads. “IT’S TIME FOR A CHANGE.”

The Nationals leafleted Bendigo tying federal Labor to Premier Jacinta Allan, the local state member for Bendigo East.

Lethlean told The Age that crime was “really hot” on the list of issues in Bendigo, along with the cost of living and housing.

A security guard was allegedly bashed by a group of teenagers at Bendigo’s Marketplace shopping centre in a high-profile incident in March. It sparked a protest outside Allan’s office.

Lethlean accepted crime was a state issue and said that he wasn’t focused on Allan. But he argued that all levels of government needed to work together.

“I’m focused on where I can help federally. The states are a different issue. People sometimes do find it hard to decipher between the two, so it’s probably not doing us any harm,” Lethlean said while campaigning in Bendigo.

“But my main focus would be letting people know we’ve been a safe seat in Bendigo for way too long.”

Coming at it from “a business perspective”, Lethlean said government money had been badly managed. He said there should be more of a focus on making sure nobody is left behind.

A Labor Party figure agreed the Nationals were putting up a strong candidate with a heavily resourced campaign. “But they won’t win,” the source said.

Chesters is seeking a fifth term as Bendigo MP and is known for the red coat she wears around town.

She said the Nationals wanted crime to be an issue through the campaign.

“They’ve done whatever they can to inflame it,” Chesters told The Age on Friday.

“They would very much like this election to be fought on state issues and not on the track record of the Albanese Labor government.”

She said people understood the difference between state and federal responsibilities, and highlighted campaign talking points on Medicare, urgent care clinics, free TAFE and cutting student debt.

But she said Victoria’s toughened bail laws was welcomed and that Allan was warmly known.

“For every one person who might be a bit unhappy, I’ll find you five that love her,” Chesters said. “She is the Bendigo girl.”

Since she was first elected in 2013, Chesters has turned the former marginal seat into a safe one, something she said she wouldn’t take for granted.

She claimed this campaign had come “with a tidal wave of nastiness”, including personal attacks and what she described as misinformation about Labor’s record.

“It’s been the ugliest and nastiest campaign that I’ve been involved in,” she said. “The National Party are deploying pretty much a Donald Trump-style campaign.”

The Nationals reject that attack.

Federal leader David Littleproud, out in Bendigo this week, said Chesters had achieved nothing and had “as much pull as a chihuahua”. He has since said he meant no offence.

Allan – who was the minister responsible for the regional Commonwealth Games fiasco, an issue that may be remembered locally – said Chesters was a strong voice delivering for the community.

“What’s interesting to me, living in Bendigo and watching the National Party’s campaign, is they’re desperately trying to pretend that they’re not part of a Peter Dutton outfit,” Allan said.

State Nationals MP for Northern Victoria Gaelle Broad, who lives in Bendigo and ran against Allan in 2018, said Lethlean was smart, hardworking and local.

“[These are] the things that you want to see in a local member. He’s got all of them.”

The Nationals’ Victorian seats – including the neighbouring Nicholls and Mallee, as well as Gippsland – are all held on super safe margins and the party doesn’t have a winnable Senate position on the ticket this election.

The party also holds neighbouring state seats and outperformed expectations at the 2022 Victorian election.

Bendigo seemed to be the natural progression. A boundary redistribution also favours the Nationals slightly.

Tally Room election analyst Ben Raue said Bendigo was mostly an urban seat where Labor had solidified representation.

“If all your seats are safe, what are you supposed to do during the election?” Raue said. “Maybe Bendigo is the answer. That doesn’t exactly tell you that it’s a good prospect.”

Former Nationals party state director Matthew Harris, now director at Barton Deakin Government Relations, believed it could be the unexpected outcome on election night.

“They’re running a great campaign,” he said.

The Nationals are unlikely to get too close in Bendigo. But the party, and Lethlean, are not going to wonder “what if”.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.