Pesutto’s would-be dethroners appear to have outwitted themselves

In an unlikely twist, John Pesutto’s strongest critics may have saved the Liberal leader from political oblivion.

At the start of the week, Pesutto was almost certain to face a leadership challenge when parliament returns. Now, momentum to replace him appears to have hit a hurdle.

Kim Wells arriving at the Federal Court to give evidence against Pesutto in late September.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui

While hardly a ringing endorsement, it appears that the majority of the party room – having seen the alternative candidates – would rather stick with the current bloke.

News that conservative MPs were urging veteran MP Kim Wells to put his hand up only triggered a wave of discipline in the party room. Briefly the state’s treasurer, Wells has spent most of the intervening years on the backbench, but returned to prominence in the defamation trial by giving damning evidence against the party’s leadership, whom he accused of a betrayal.

Wells’ antics may have animated Pesutto’s detractors, but it did little to help his leadership prospects. First elected in 1992, he certainly comes with experience, but MPs question whether he is the one to excite Gen Ys and Zs to vote Liberal.

Reports that Mornington MP Chris Crewther was also considering a tilt at the top job further cemented Pesutto’s leadership.

A former international lawyer with the United Nations, Spring Street’s answer to Amal Clooney has, so far, been unable to budge from the backbench.

Liberal MP Chris Crewther, who was previously a member of the federal Coalition governmentCredit: Alex Ellinghausen

Instead of destabilising Pesutto, the candidacy of Crewther and Wells appears to have repelled more popular leadership candidates who no longer wanted to be connected with next week’s planned uprising.

Until that point, Pesutto had done his level best to lose it.

While he cannot be blamed for bringing on the case – it was Deeming’s decision to sue the Liberal leader – there remains questions about the lengths he went to, to settle the matter.

Whether fair or not, many of his colleagues still believe the ugly saga only made it to the Federal Court because he was too pigheaded in mediation, although the strict confidentiality obligations prevent him from saying otherwise.

Enraged by the court spectacle, Pesutto made several more missteps in the days that followed, including sending out his deputies to phone his biggest critics.

MPs maintain Pesutto has also shown little humility and failed to acknowledge the damage the case has done to his colleagues. Nor has he outlined plans to unify the party, instead enticing troublemakers to “bring it”.

Unlike Labor, whose MPs are usually told how to vote in leadership battles by factional bosses, Pesutto’s fate will ultimately be decided by 29 different MPs with 29 differing opinions. But for now, they can loosely be placed into three groupings.

His biggest detractors stem from the party’s conservative wing and include disgruntled backbenchers as well as supporters of Moira Deeming. They are repelled by his urbane charm and are determined to punish him for leading a push to expel Deeming.

The second group is perhaps more dangerous. This cohort includes a significant number of MPs who backed him for leader in 2022 but whose support has waned over the past two years. Dangerously for Pesutto, it includes a number of frontbenchers who aspire to lead the party one day and would be more palatable in a leadership contest than the current candidates.

Then there is a smaller group of rusted-on Pesutto supporters, who are united by their more moderate views or – more cynically – their charmed career trajectory under his leadership.

As it stands, the most likely scenario on Tuesday is that a group of disgruntled MPs rally the five votes needed to suspend standing orders and will test support for a leadership ballot. The result will be crucial.

Given Pesutto only won the leadership by one vote in December 2022, if he gets anything more than 16 of the 30 votes needed to stave off a leadership ballot his team will frame it as a win.

But make no mistake, members of that second group – those who remain supportive of Pesutto for now – will be alert to any sign of weakness. In other words, a narrow victory might leave the leadership team vulnerable to another attack in the weeks and months ahead.

So, for Pesutto, there remains only one option: a significant victory.

Realising they may not get their way next week, the plotters appear to have revised their timetable to take advantage of Justice O’Callaghan’s latest indication that he would provide a verdict in the defamation trial before Christmas.

The justice’s decision could again destabilise Pesutto’s leadership, in the event of a loss, or even a victory if it comes with a reprimand from the judge.

Should Pesutto survive until election day, polling suggests he has a strong chance of becoming the next Victorian premier. If John Howard’s political comeback was akin to “Lazarus with a triple bypass”, it will be almost impossible to calculate the scale of Pesutto’s resurrection should he ever lead the state.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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CLARIFICATION: An earlier version of this story referred to rebel MPs winning 16 votes in a spill, when the columnist intended to propose a scenario where John Pesutto won the 16 votes. The error was made in production.