Jacinta Allan is failing to cut through. The denials are making it worse

When polling is released – particularly bad results – MPs are encouraged to parrot the line that the “the only poll that matters is on election day”.

You might have expected much the same on Thursday when a survey conducted by Resolve Political Monitor, exclusively for The Age, showed Labor’s primary vote has dipped to its lowest level in years.

But in recent months, as support for the state government has tumbled, Labor has changed tack.

Premier Jacinta Allan’s government has plenty of time to bounce back, but there’s no denying the trend. Credit: Eddie Jim

Back in May, when Labor’s primary vote dropped 5 percentage points to sit at just 28 per cent, Minister Gabrielle Williams insisted the government didn’t “fixate on polls … that have a questionable basis underpinning them”.

This time, as Labor’s primary vote continues to be stuck below 30, it was backbencher Nick Staikos who took the results to task, in a post on social media. Similar political surveys conducted by News Corp newspapers – which reported a slightly higher primary results for Labor – were more accurate, he said.

Curiously, neither Staikos nor Williams took issue with Resolve’s methodology in June last year when support for the Victorian Liberal Party dropped to an embarrassing 23 per cent.

The delayed and defensive manner in which the Allan government has chosen to respond to weeks of sustained political pressure over youth crime, the CFMEU saga, health sector budgets and now a slump in its primary support risks becoming its biggest political headache.

Political crises come and go and how government responds to chaos isn’t organic, it’s manufactured. The problem with Labor’s response is that it does little to stem the bleeding from of genuine political wounds.

If politicians really want to challenge the accuracy of Resolve, they should look at its November 2022 survey based on data collected in the days leading up to the last state election. It predicted Labor was on track to win 36.2 per cent of the primary vote, on the day Labor locked in 37 per cent of the vote. These figures were well within the margin of error and reflected Labor’s result more accurately than many other published polls, which overestimated Labor’s popularity.

In other words, Labor ignores these numbers at its peril, a path Opposition Leader John Pesutto would no doubt be encouraging it to take.

It’s true that political surveys come and go, and offer just a snapshot in time of the mood of the electorate. In the middle of an election cycle and in the volatile political climate where local factors compete with national and global influences, the results may only scratch the surface.

But what they do show us is a trend, and that trend is not Labor’s friend.

If a poll was held today, based on the Resolve results Labor wouldn’t necessarily be destined for the opposition benches, but up to a dozen of its MPs might be out of a job.

Armed with this information, the benefits of incumbency and more than two years to turn it around, Labor would be wise to use these figures as a trigger to engage in some self reflection, policy development and start to sharpen their responses when MPs meet at a caucus conference next week.

On the evidence, some of the drop in support started before Jacinta Allan took over as leader, but the vast majority of the slump has been under her watch.

Voters, according to political strategists, haven’t warmed to Allan, which is not necessarily a surprise less than a year into the job following on from an incredibly dominant leader.

Former Labor premier John Brumby suffered a similar decline in popularity after taking over from the popular Steve Bracks. Allan’s predecessor Daniel Andrews may have been polarising in the electorate, but he had a core base of supporters who admired his strength and viewed him as a fierce defender of Victoria.

Allan’s approach has been different – as it should be – but it’s clear she is struggling to cut through.

This can be seen in her decision to wait two days to respond to allegations of bikies and underworld figures holding key positions on government projects, while her interstate colleagues, Premier Chris Minns and South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas, issued statements on social media.

But fears Labor’s popularity will fall further following the CFMEU drama has been somewhat stymied by political strategists who argue Labor’s primary can’t get much lower. They also believe voters may have already factored in a certain level of unpleasantness in the construction union, preventing the party from haemorrhaging much more support.

If this behaviour was exposed in, say, the nurses union, that might have been a different story for Labor.

Regardless, the CFMEU drama and the government’s response is symbolic of a head-in-the-sand approach to its political problems.

Struggling in the polls might be unusual territory for Victorian Labor of late, but perhaps it’s time to consider the words of former deputy prime minister and treasurer Wayne Swan.

“The real measure of a good government,” Swan said “is not just what it does when it’s dealt good cards, but what it does when it’s dealt some pretty ordinary ones”.

We are all waiting to find out.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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