Can Labor outdo Victoria’s byelection curse in Andrews’ old seat?

The sight of Victorian Cabinet ministers, spotted in the wild doorknocking in Mulgrave ahead of Saturday's byelection, triggered a wave of excitement at Liberal headquarters.

For dejected members of the opposition, it was a sure sign the Victorian ALP might be a bit nervous about who will pick up the south-east Melbourne seat, which was held by Daniel Andrews until his resignation in September.

Eden Foster is seeking to replace Daniel Andrews as Mulgrave’s MP.Credit: Joe Armao

The opposition doesn’t hold much optimism that they’ll win on Saturday. Instead, their hopes rest on independent candidate Ian Cook – who will receive the Liberals’ preferences – and who secured 17 per cent of the primary vote at the state election last November.

And they have reason to be excited. While Labor holds the seat by a healthy 10 per cent margin and remains the favourite, internal party polling suggests Labor's primary vote is likely finish in the 40s and Cook nearer to 25.

But only one thing is certain about single seat polling, it is wildly unreliable. So in the absence of good figures, Labor insiders are turning to political history to try and manage expectations. Conveniently, historical precedent suggests that when Premiers departs their seats, the party often suffers.

Perhaps the most memorable example which still spooks Spring Streeters, is the 1999 Burwood byelection to replace then-outgoing premier Jeff Kennett. On election day, Labor gained a near 11 per cent swing that saw them win the seat.

Fast-forward a few years and Labor’s primary vote also suffered in the safe seat of Broadmeadows following the resignation of former premier John Brumby, despite the Liberals opting against running a candidate.

The carnage wasn’t anywhere near as high in Williamstown following Steve Bracks’ resignation, but the Greens still managed to pick up 2400 extra first preference votes in a seat which had previously produced two Labor premiers.

The trend was again repeated in Hawthorn and South West Coast, which were vacated by former premiers Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine.

During the past week, Labor sources were keen to highlight these examples, indicating the party is gearing up for a potential swing. There is also an acknowledgement from both sides that a combination of interest rate rises, the cost-of-living crisis, the Gaza conflict and the recent referendum defeat has impacted voter temperament.

“There is no doubt people are shitty,” one Labor source said this week.

While few, if any, of these issues can actually be resolved on Spring Street, it’s rarely good for the government when voters are angry. It means the baseball bats are out for the broader political establishment, it just depends on which way and how enthusiastically they swing.

I Cook Foods owner Ian Cook outside the Supreme Court.Credit: Jason South

In the final days of the campaign, Labor’s main aim has been to boost voter turnout, fuelled by a fear that low numbers on pre-poll booths - which are reportedly downs by one third - will flow into Saturday and hinder their candidate Eden Foster’s chance of retaining the seat for the party.

Foster is widely considered to be a strong choice for Labor, but even the best candidates can only add a few extra per cent to the vote. The government is not hiding the fact that its biggest challenger is Cook, who will benefit from Liberal preferences and has already chalked up one win against the government this week when a Supreme Court judge ruled the order used to shut down his catering company was invalid.

Highlighting Labor’s nerves, the party has produced a social media ad attacking Cook’s policy platform and inexperience in government. Seasoned political campaigners say the strongest way to discredit an independent is to discredit their motives for running, which the attack ad also achieves.

The “Don’t Cook Mulgrave’s future ad” may be clogging up the social media feeds of voters in South East Melbourne, but its piques the interest of political observers to are taking it as a sign of Labor’s growing trepidation.

No one, not even the Liberals’ own candidate, thinks they can win on Saturday. But opposition leader John Pesutto has long-argued the party can no longer afford to ignore suburban seats if it wants to be a party of government.

In the past, locals in Noble Park, Dandenong North, Springvale and Wheelers Hill would have rarely seen a Liberal MP in the flesh, let alone an opposition leader. Not only has Pesutto made three trips to the Springvale in the last month, he was also spotted leafleting mailboxes with his wife Betty last weekend.

For Pesutto, Mulgrave is a chance to build on the party’s infrastructure in suburban seats it wants to pick up in 2026. But true to form, there remain some, albeit a diminishing number, in the Victorian Liberal Party that are talking up Mulgrave as yet another political test for Pesutto, and willing to try and use almost any result as a reason to destabilise his leadership.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor for The Age.

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