Crisafulli’s LNP climbs higher against Miles’ Labor leadership

The news

Voters have turned away from Queensland Labor in the five months since Steven Miles became premier, with the party’s support falling to the level of third parties and independents combined – all while the LNP’s lead has sharpened.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has held his steady lead as preferred premier over Labor’s Steven Miles.Credit: Marija Ercegovac

With a state election in October, the opposition party now holds a 17-percentage-point lead over the governing party on primary voting intention (43 per cent to 26 per cent), according to the latest three-month snapshot by Resolve Strategic for Brisbane Times.

LNP leader David Crisafulli has kept a steady lead as preferred premier (on 39 per cent), while Miles is being judged more harshly than predecessor Annastacia Palaszczuk was, albeit with more voters now unsure.

Crisafulli’s net likeability – the balance of favourable and unfavourable views among those who know him well enough to rate him – has risen again to 14, with Miles’ first entry (-15) slightly better than Palaszczuk’s last (-17).

The portion of respondents who have heard of Crisafulli rose to 71 per cent, from 62 per cent in the September-to-December snapshot. While there was almost universal recognition of Palaszczuk, 84 per cent knew of Miles.

About one-third of voters say their primary support would go to a minor party or independent, up from 25 per cent at the 2020 election, which represents no change beyond the margin of error since the past snapshot.

Why it matters

The October election will be the first without Palaszczuk leading Labor since 2015, just three years after the party was reduced to a seven-person opposition under the LNP landslide led by Campbell Newman. Palaszczuk retired and anointed Miles her successor in early December, following months of internal instability.

Towards the tail-end of its third term in government, Labor’s support has trended down, while the LNP’s has lifted, both by about 10 percentage points from an almost equal footing.

The quasi-campaign running since before Miles took power has seen him lean heavily – often personally – into the key issues he named when taking the job: cost-of-living pressures such as groceries, energy and housing, youth crime, climate action, and the 2032 Games.

When Labor was unable to stave off a byelection loss in Ipswich West and a swing against the party in Inala, it was put down to these issues – issues the LNP has seized on.

What they said

Resolve director Jim Reed said the shift in voting intentions was first detected in February when respondents appeared to assess the leadership change briefly, before leaning the other direction as they “haven’t warmed to Miles yet”.

“Labor’s position is dire,” he said. “More people are voting for minor parties and independents than them now, and they’re not coming back to Labor as strongly on preferences any more.

“You’d never call an election this far out, but the LNP might consider handing over to the drover’s dog from here,” he added, referencing late Labor luminary Bill Hayden’s assessment of his party’s chances at the 1983 federal vote.

Where to from here

State MPs would return to parliament on Tuesday for one of only three regular sitting weeks left this term, along with what Treasurer Cameron Dick warned would be a “difficult” cost-of-living focused budget in mid-June.

The LNP had given little by way of a detailed election platform, beyond painting the government as one of “chaos and crisis” and laying out some of its priorities, but Crisafulli’s budget reply would probably bring more.

Behind our reporting

Resolve Strategic, which conducts polls for Brisbane Times, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, surveyed registered Queensland voters at several points between mid-February and the end of last week, before giving us their findings.